With the recent victories of APC across some South Western states in Nigeria, the political calculation of Oyo State politics and the odds in favor of the incumbent Governor seemingly have been altered.
Undoubtedly, Makinde have the people endeared to him because of some notable strides in his ongoing tenure, but it is admissible that politics is beyond that. The will of the people will always suffice but influence and vested interests have a role to play in ensuring his victory at the polls.
Going by my personal observation in the scheme of things in Oyo State politics, i have earlier predicted that Makinde will have a flawless and wowing victory on Saturday 11th March because i did not foresee a scenerio like this where a repeat of 2003 Obasanjo kind of scheme played out. You would recall that before the 2003 presidential elections all Alliance for Democracy (AD) governors in the South West adopted Obasanjo as their candidate for that election. It was only Governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu who was reelected in 2003 when PDP governors took over all the other states in the south west then.
From my source within the PDP hierarchy in Oyo State, they blamed the Governor for not identifying with his party's presidential candidate-Atiku Abubakar saying that it is largely that denial that was responsible for their loss at the Senatorial and House of Representatives election. Although, a few of PDP candidates managed to win their election, it is a general knowledge that identity politics will always have its negative and positive impacts.
When crisis broke out in PDP and some governors of Southern Nigeria demanded for their party Chairman to step down, it resulted into power play between the top parties as the ruling party APC tried to leverage on the crisis to gain more influence for its victory at the Presidential election. Governor Seyi Makinde did not welcome Atiku Abubakar in Oyo State when he was around to campaign on two occasions. We heard of meetings of the APC presidential candidate with the G5 Governors in London and the warm welcome at the Oyo State executive chamber which indicated a sign of endorsement.
Now, it looks like a suicide mission for Makinde. Ifeanyi Ugwuany of Enugu lost his senatorial bid to Labour Party, Samuel Ortom lost his senatorial bid to APC and Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia lost all his preferred candidates to Labour Party. People's Democratic Party in Oyo state has lost most of the seats in the bid to the federal house of representatives and they also failed to win all the Senatorial seats. In theory, the election of 11th March 2023 might have been won on paper considering the soldiers left to fight for each sides of the divide.
The camp of the opposition will be strategizing of how to gain more influence by some sort of coalition with less vulnerable parties who can help them sway more votes. The top contenders in the election are PDP, APC and Accord Party. It is possible for an alliance to come up and whoever gets the nudge of other parties will win.
The general who loses a battle makes but few calculations beforehand. Therefore, we look forward to the intrigues and possible alliances that will work against or for Makinde.
According as circumstances are favorable or otherwise one should modify one's plans. Makinde will have to rejig his political influence and suit more nerves of his political allies to win the election coming up on the 11th of March 2023. With the state of things right now, if APC's Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu eventually gets his certificate of return as the president of the federal republic of Nigeria a lot of dynamics will come to play in determining the next Oyo State governor.
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