In a surprising turn amidst Nigeria's ongoing economic challenges, rice prices have experienced a significant decline, bringing relief to consumers nationwide. As of April 2025, the cost of a 50kg bag of rice has dropped to between ₦60,000 and ₦63,000 in states like Lagos, Ogun, and Niger, a notable decrease from the ₦90,000 peak observed in February 2024.
Factors Contributing to the Price Decline
1. Appreciation of the Naira
The Nigerian Naira has strengthened against the US Dollar, moving from rates of ₦1,600–₦1,800/1 in early 2024 to approximately ₦1,100/1 by April. This currency appreciation has reduced the cost of importing rice and rice production inputs, leading to lower market prices.
2. Reopening of the Nigeria-Niger Border
The reopening of the Nigeria-Niger border on March 13, 2024, after a seven-month closure due to sanctions, has revitalized cross-border trade. This development has improved the availability of paddy rice, a key raw material for local millers, thereby reducing production costs and contributing to the drop in rice prices.
3. Increased Domestic Production
Government incentives and support for local rice production have led to more players entering the rice processing industry. This increase in domestic production capacity has enhanced supply, further driving down prices. [2]
4. Seasonal Harvests
The commencement of the rice harvesting season has augmented the supply of rice in the market, contributing to the downward trend in prices. [3]
Regional Price Variations
While the average price in major cities like Lagos and Abuja hovers around ₦67,000, border communities such as Saki in Oyo State report prices as low as ₦42,000 per 50kg bag, reflecting the direct impact of cross-border trade on local markets. [4]
Outlook
Experts anticipate that rice prices may continue to decline in the coming months, especially with ongoing harvests and sustained government support for local production. However, factors such as inflation, currently at 33.2% as of March 2024, and potential fluctuations in the Naira's value could influence future price stability. [2]
For consumers and stakeholders in the agricultural sector, these developments underscore the importance of macroeconomic policies and regional trade dynamics in shaping food prices.
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