In recent political developments, Adebayo Adelabu's intention to replicate President Bola Tinubu’s political strategy in Oyo State has raised significant skepticism. While Tinubu’s "playbook" ushered in successive non-politically rooted governors—Fashola, Ambode, and Sanwo-Olu—in Lagos, Adelabu's attempt to employ the same model in Oyo is proving ill-fitted. This analysis breaks down why Tinubu-style politics falters in Oyo, why Adelabu may struggle absent powerful godfathers, and how Governor Seyi Makinde ultimately holds the keys to his successor’s emergence.
1. Tinubu’s Winning Formula in Lagos: Influence Over Grassroots
In Lagos, a unique political model thrived: Fashola, Ambode, and Sanwo-Olu—none grassroots politicians—secured governorship largely via Tinubu’s established influence and patronage network. Tinubu’s political capital, cultivated over decades, became the real driver of their victories.
Adelabu’s ambition appears to hinge on this same framework: leveraging a top-down influence strategy. However, replicating Tinubu’s success requires deep-rooted social capital and a central figure capable of mobilizing votes and delivering party unity. Without these, the model falters.
2. Oyo’s Political Landscape: The Role of Godfatherism
Oyo State leans heavily on a distinct brand of politics: godfatherism. Former governors like Abiola Ajimobi and Alao Akala wielded considerable sway and patronage networks that shaped electoral outcomes.
As insiders have pointed out, in previous years, both Ajimobi and Akala played pivotal roles in shaping Adelabu’s political journey—even though that influence did not ultimately deliver him victory. Now, with both figures absent from the political foreground, the foundation that once lent Adelabu political momentum has vanished.
3. Adelabu’s Comeback: Not Grounded Enough
A series of recent developments casts doubt on Adelabu’s capacity to replicate Tinubu’s Lagos model:
Adelabu returned to APC in December 2023, asserting that his move was to support Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda—not to pursue a 2027 governorship ambition.
Yet tensions brewed after he hosted a closed-door meeting with APC executives and local council chairmen, framing his 2022 defection and return as part of Tinubu’s direction and suggesting a 2027 political strategy. This sparked pushback from within APC ranks.
Grassroots voices criticized his reception, accusing the party of sidelining committed members and favoring someone who failed previous elections.
One APC insider forcefully stated Adelabu "worked against Tinubu in the 2023 election", highlighting intra-party resentment over his reward with a ministerial position despite his defection.
Broader factionalism surfaced: disagreements in Oyo APC reflect a deeper struggle between loyalty to Adelabu and loyalty to other figures like Teslim Folarin, with boiling mistrust around imposition and party direction.
4. The Achilles’ Heel: No Personal Social Capital & Artificial Mobilization
Adelabu lacks the intrinsic social capital that defines successful politicians in Oyo. Unlike Tinubu, whose political ascendancy is tied to decades of groundwork, Adelabu’s appeal is largely superficial and centralized. If he attempts to build such capital now, it risks being seen as contrived rather than organic.
It’s one thing to declare support for national political goals—quite another to translate that into effective, local mobilization under Oyo’s political realities.
5. Tinubu’s Influence in Oyo: Limited and Divided Attention
Tinubu’s capacity to support Adelabu meaningfully in Oyo is limited. His primary mandate remains national governance—and he’s already set his sights on his own political future. His attention is spread thin, and his influence in Oyo does not carry the same weight as it does in Lagos.
Expecting Tinubu to deliver Oyo’s gubernatorial victory would be overestimating his bandwidth and reach.
6. Makinde: The Power Player with the Real Influence
Governor Seyi Makinde currently holds the true power to shape the 2027 succession outcome in Oyo State. His leadership, performance, and social capital make him the political kingmaker of the moment.
If Adelabu—or any other APC aspirant—hopes to win, they must court Makinde’s favor or align with his broader trajectory. Without that alignment, even a presidential endorsement will count for little.
Playing a Winning Hand Requires More than Strategy
Tinubu’s political blueprint in Lagos thrived on entrenched networks, godfather influence, and years of groundwork. Applying that blueprint in Oyo—absent the same infrastructure or social capital—is fundamentally flawed.
Adelabu’s retrofitted strategy lacks authenticity, grassroots support, and credible alignment with Oyo’s political architecture. His ministerial role and Tinubu’s distant endorsement cannot substitute for the organic groundwork and localized networks needed to drive victory.
With godfathers Ajimobi and Akala out of the picture, and without Makinde’s sanction, Adelabu’s vision remains hollow. If he attempts to force it, it risks collapse into ineffectual politicking.
The truth is clear: only personal social capital, hard-earned and deeply rooted in Oyo’s socio-political fabric, can deliver success. And building that takes time—time Adelabu does not have if he’s aiming for 2027. Meanwhile, Governor Seyi Makinde remains the decisive force—his endorsement or opposition could seal Adelabu’s fate.
#Adelabu #TinubuPlaybook #OyoPolitics #MakindeSuccessor #GodfatherPolitics #Oyo2027 #APCConflict #SocialCapital
0 Comments