Oyo State, often described as the political heartbeat of the South-West, has a storied history of power struggles, kingmakers, and coalitions. Since 1999, the state’s political trajectory has reflected not just the ambitions of its leaders but also the mood of its people, shaped by memories of June 12, the shadows of political godfathers, and the resilience of grassroots politics. As the 2027 governorship election looms, all eyes are on Governor Seyi Makinde and whether he can redefine the pattern that has shaped Oyo for over two decades.
1999: The June 12 Sentiment and AD’s Rise
At the dawn of Nigeria’s Fourth Republic in 1999, Oyo’s political compass pointed towards those who defended the June 12 mandate. The annulment of the 1993 presidential election, believed to have been won by Chief Moshood Abiola, left deep scars. Those perceived as loyal to the June 12 cause gained sympathy, while those who fraternized with Abacha’s regime were treated with disdain.
This sentiment brought the Alliance for Democracy (AD) to power across much of the South-West. In Oyo, Lamidi Adesina, a staunch progressive, emerged governor. His victory symbolized the triumph of pro-democracy forces. Meanwhile, prominent figures such as Lamidi Adedibu and Arisekola Alao, who had supported the military, were sidelined by public opinion—at least temporarily.
Even former president Olusegun Obasanjo, despite being Yoruba, was rejected at the polls across the South-West in 1999. The region instead embraced Olu Falae, the AD/APP candidate, reflecting the strong anti-establishment mood.
2003–2007: Adedibu, PDP’s Bulldozer, and the Return of Molete Politics
By 2003, Oyo politics entered a new chapter dominated by Chief Lamidi Ariyibi Adedibu, the feared “Strongman of Ibadan politics.” With his Molete residence as a political shrine, Adedibu became the ultimate kingmaker. His word was law; his endorsement a guaranteed ticket.
Backed by Adedibu and the PDP machinery, Rashidi Ladoja defeated Lam Adesina in 2003. However, the alliance soon soured. By 2006, Adedibu orchestrated Ladoja’s controversial impeachment, paving the way for his deputy, Adebayo Alao-Akala, to assume office. Though Ladoja returned after a legal battle, the cracks were permanent.
Adedibu’s influence extended to the National Assembly. His protégé, Teslim Folarin, became Senate Leader, while Alao-Akala consolidated power in Ogbomoso. Politics in Oyo during this period was raw, transactional, and heavily dependent on patronage. Adedibu’s death in 2008 ended an era but left behind a vacuum that would later reshape the state’s politics.
2011: Ajimobi and the Fall of the Godfathers
The 2011 elections were transformative. With Adedibu gone, new power blocs emerged. Abiola Ajimobi, running under the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), defeated sitting governor Alao-Akala.
Interestingly, Ajimobi acknowledged that he benefited from behind-the-scenes support from Ladoja, who was still influential despite his earlier setbacks. This was proof that while the Molete style of open godfatherism was fading, subtle alliances and grassroots influence remained critical.
2015: The Coalition That Failed
By 2015, Oyo politics had matured into a chessboard of coalitions and counter-coalitions. Ajimobi sought re-election under the APC. His major challengers included Ladoja (Accord Party), Alao-Akala (Labour Party), Teslim Folarin (PDP), and Seyi Makinde (Social Democratic Party).
The election demonstrated the danger of fragmentation. If opposition parties had united, Ajimobi might have been defeated. Instead, their disunity handed Ajimobi victory—making him the first governor in Oyo’s history to win a second term.
This period also marked the rise of Seyi Makinde as a serious contender. Though he lost under the SDP, his reputation as a philanthropist, technocrat, and clean politician earned him grassroots respect, especially in Ibadan.
2019: The Coalition that Made Makinde
The 2019 elections were historic. Having learned from 2015, opposition forces decided to unite. Rashidi Ladoja, though no longer contesting, brokered the coalition. He rallied ADC, SDP, and other smaller parties to back Seyi Makinde of the PDP against APC’s Adebayo Adelabu.
The result was emphatic. Makinde won in a landslide, defeating Adelabu with over 500,000 votes—a victory margin not seen in decades. This confirmed two things: (1) Oyo politics had entered the age of coalition building, and (2) Makinde had become the new face of progressive leadership in the state.
Makinde’s Strategy: Governance and Traditional Authority
Since 2019, Governor Makinde has consolidated power through two strategies: delivery of governance and strengthening traditional institutions.
1. Governance: His investments in education, infrastructure, and healthcare have improved his popularity. Unlike predecessors, he is perceived as less transactional and more policy-driven.
2. Traditional Rulers: Makinde has carefully courted traditional rulers, installing new monarchs and revitalizing the Council of Obas and Chiefs. He played a visible role in the recent enthronement of the Alaafin of Oyo, Oba Abimbola Owoade I, insisting on due process. By aligning governance with cultural authority, Makinde has built a power base that blends modern and traditional legitimacy.
This dual approach has cemented his reputation as both a technocrat and a grassroots politician.
2023: PDP Consolidation and APC Fragmentation
In the 2023 elections, Makinde secured re-election, defeating Teslim Folarin of the APC. This was significant because it proved that Makinde’s appeal was not a fluke of coalition politics. He stood on his own record and won convincingly.
Meanwhile, the APC in Oyo remains divided, plagued by internal wrangling between factions loyal to Adelabu, Folarin, and other stakeholders. The absence of a unifying leader has weakened the party’s chances of mounting a serious challenge in the near term.
2027: What Lies Ahead
As 2027 approaches, the central question is: Who will succeed Seyi Makinde?
Makinde cannot run again, but he holds the ace in deciding his successor. His body language suggests openness to zoning the governorship outside Ibadan, possibly to Oke-Ogun—a region long clamoring for its turn.
Several factors make Makinde the kingmaker-in-chief for 2027:
Coalition Power: He understands that unity among opposition groups determines victory.
Traditional Influence: His bond with Obas and chiefs means he has cultural capital no rival enjoys.
Performance Record: By balancing governance with inclusivity, he has secured legitimacy across the state.
Unless a strong opposition coalition emerges, the PDP under Makinde’s guidance looks poised to retain Oyo in 2027.
From the fiery days of Adedibu’s Molete politics to the coalition era ushered in by Ladoja, Oyo State has undergone a remarkable political transformation. The era of raw godfatherism is gone, replaced by strategic alliances, grassroots credibility, and cultural legitimacy.
Governor Seyi Makinde embodies this new order. His rise symbolizes the decline of patronage politics and the rise of coalition-driven governance. As 2027 draws closer, Makinde’s ability to anoint a successor—or engineer another grand coalition—will determine whether PDP’s dominance continues or whether Oyo once again becomes the unpredictable battlefield it has always been.
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