🔥 El-Rufai Drops Political Bombshell: “Tinubu Will Place Third in 2027”
In Nigeria’s ever-dynamic political arena, 2027 already promises to be one of the most hotly contested presidential elections since 1999. While President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has just clocked over a year in office, political realignments, bold predictions, and fiery debates are already dominating the national conversation. The latest grenade into this discussion comes from none other than Malam Nasir El-Rufai, the outspoken former Governor of Kaduna State, who has openly declared that President Tinubu “has no pathway to victory in 2027.”
Speaking as a guest on Channels Television’s Sunday Politics, El-Rufai stunned viewers and political watchers alike with his frank analysis. Known for his bluntness and political calculation skills, the former FCT Minister stated emphatically that the 2027 election will likely end in a runoff — the first in Nigeria’s history — and Tinubu, despite being the incumbent, will not even make it to the second round.
🗣️ What Exactly Did El-Rufai Say?
El-Rufai did not mince words. In his own statement:
> “I was governor of Kaduna State; I was one of Bola Tinubu’s biggest campaigners, but I couldn’t deliver the state to him. If you want to live in self-delusion, that’s your choice. But I can tell you clearly — the worst-case scenario in 2027 is that no winner will emerge in the first round. And in such an event, Tinubu will not be on the ballot for the runoff, because at best, he will finish third.”
This declaration is politically explosive for several reasons. First, it comes from a man who was a frontline ally of Tinubu during the 2023 general elections. Second, it suggests that even incumbency advantage, which has historically favored Nigerian presidents, may not be enough to keep Tinubu in Aso Rock beyond 2027.
⚖️ Why El-Rufai Thinks Tinubu Will Struggle
El-Rufai’s calculations, though not fully laid bare, are rooted in both electoral mathematics and Nigeria’s political realities.
1. North’s Discontent – The North, which massively backed President Muhammadu Buhari in 2015 and 2019, has shown signs of dissatisfaction with Tinubu’s government. Many northern leaders feel underrepresented, while the biting economic hardship has fueled growing disillusionment among northern voters.
2. Economic Hardship – Tinubu’s controversial fuel subsidy removal and forex reforms, though praised by economists in the long run, have caused severe inflation, skyrocketing food prices, and currency instability. This has directly affected ordinary Nigerians who may express their anger through the ballot.
3. Opposition Realignment – The 2023 elections were split between the All Progressives Congress (APC), the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and the Labour Party (LP). If opposition figures like Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, or Rabiu Kwankwaso form a united front in 2027, Tinubu’s electoral map shrinks drastically.
4. Runoff Dynamics – Nigeria’s constitution mandates that a presidential candidate must win 25% of votes in at least 24 states plus a majority of the total votes. If no candidate achieves this, the election goes into a runoff between the top two. El-Rufai’s claim is that Tinubu won’t even be in that top two bracket.
🔍 The Runoff Scenario Explained
Nigeria has never witnessed a presidential runoff. Since 1999, winners have always emerged in the first ballot. But with the rise of third-force candidates like Peter Obi in 2023, Nigeria’s political landscape is now more fragmented than ever.
In 2023, Tinubu won with just 36% of total votes, while Atiku polled 29% and Obi 25%.
If the opposition avoids splitting votes again, Tinubu’s reelection chances diminish.
El-Rufai’s prediction of Tinubu finishing third place suggests that Labour Party and PDP candidates may dominate the first round.
This would mark the first time since independence that an incumbent president fails to make it into a runoff.
⚡ Reaction from Political Circles
El-Rufai’s bold statement has already triggered reactions:
Pro-Tinubu APC loyalists dismiss his comments as sour grapes, pointing to El-Rufai’s strained relationship with the presidency after he was dropped from Tinubu’s ministerial list in 2023.
Opposition parties see it as validation of their claim that Tinubu is already unpopular and may not survive the electoral tsunami of 2027.
Analysts warn that El-Rufai may be overstating Tinubu’s weakness, noting that incumbency, state resources, and APC’s vast political machinery should not be underestimated.
🏛️ The El-Rufai Factor
It is important to note that El-Rufai is not just a regular political commentator. He has a reputation as a political strategist who once helped engineer APC’s victory in 2015. However, his falling out with Tinubu’s camp after 2023 means he may now be repositioning himself for a post-Tinubu Nigeria.
Some speculate that El-Rufai himself harbors future presidential ambitions, especially with whispers of alliances with opposition figures. If true, his comments may not just be analysis, but also part of a calculated political move.
📊 Can Tinubu Still Prove Him Wrong?
Despite El-Rufai’s forecast, ruling out Tinubu completely may be premature. Here’s why:
Incumbency Advantage – Nigerian history shows incumbents often leverage state power effectively during elections.
APC Strongholds – APC still controls a majority of states, governors, and legislators who could rally support.
Opposition Disunity – PDP and Labour Party remain deeply divided, with no clear roadmap for a merger. If they contest separately again, Tinubu could capitalize on the split.
Electoral Reforms – INEC’s performance in 2027 will also be critical. If electoral processes are compromised, predictions could change dramatically.
🌍 Implications for 2027 and Beyond
El-Rufai’s comments underscore the growing unpredictability of Nigerian elections. For the first time in decades, incumbency is no longer a guaranteed ticket to victory. Nigerians, especially the youth who powered Obi’s 2023 campaign, are becoming more politically aware and less tolerant of failed governance.
If El-Rufai’s prediction comes true, 2027 could reshape Nigeria’s political order permanently — weakening APC, elevating new political coalitions, and forcing leaders to focus more on performance than patronage.
✍️ Final Thoughts
Whether or not El-Rufai’s prophecy materializes, one thing is clear: President Tinubu faces an uphill battle for 2027. His government must urgently tackle economic hardship, insecurity, and political discontent to regain public trust. Otherwise, history may indeed record him as the first Nigerian president unable to secure a runoff ticket while in power.
Love him or hate him, El-Rufai has once again shown why he remains one of Nigeria’s most provocative political voices. His words may sting Tinubu’s camp today, but they reflect a deeper truth: 2027 will not be business as usual.
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