Nigeria is once again confronted with the stark reality that its vaunted refinery revival is little more than political theatre. Despite repeated assurances from former NNPC Group Managing Director Mele Kyari, the Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries remain largely non-functional. Now, former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s earlier warnings—that these facilities would never truly work under government control—are proving to be prophetic. Verified reports show over $2.9 to $3 billion has been spent on rehabilitating these plants with minimal to no tangible output.
What Obasanjo Said — And What He Meant
Obasanjo has publicly doubted NNPC’s claims about the revival of government-owned refineries. He likened the narrative to a farmer who claims to have planted 200 heaps of yams but only harvests 100 — in other words, a façade of success meant to hide failure.
He has claimed that more than US$2 billion has already been squandered on these refineries, yet they still “will not work.”
Obasanjo also recalls, from his time in office, offers by private companies (notably Dangote) to manage or partially own the refineries, which were rejected or reversed.
What the Evidence Shows
Recent investigations and media reports back up much of what Obasanjo warned about:
The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has arrested ex-Managing Directors of the three refineries over alleged mismanagement of around US$2.96 billion allocated for their rehabilitation.
Port Harcourt refinery was declared “restarted” in late 2024, but it has been operating at below 40-50% capacity since then. Key units needed for producing high-value fuels—catalytic crackers, hydrocrackers, cokers (the “conversion units”)—are still not fully functional.
The Warri refinery, after being rehabilitated at huge cost (about US$897 million for its portion of the turnaround maintenance) and declared operational in December 2024, shut down again in January 2025 due to safety issues in its Crude Distillation Unit (CDU) Main Heater.
Kaduna refinery remains largely dormant, plagued by pipeline vandalism, obsolete equipment, recurring delays, and overblown promises.
Who Said What: Claims vs Reality
Mele Kyari & NNPCL: Announced the revivals. Claimed Port Harcourt started crude processing on November 26, 2024; Warri restarted operations in December 2024.
Obasanjo: Skeptical from the outset. Argued that under government management, these plants might never deliver. Asked where the money has gone.
NNPC response: Invited Obasanjo to revisit/inspect the facilities and see for himself the progress.
Why These Refineries Are Still “Ghosts”
Based on verified sources, the obstacles include:
1. Technical / Safety Failures: Even after rehabilitation, critical components like the Crude Distillation Units and Main Heaters fail safety checks — leading to shutdowns.
2. Overstated Operational Claims: Declarations of “operational” status that don’t match on-the-ground performance. E.g. Port Harcourt running at 70% claimed; real output closer to 35-40%.
3. Corruption & Mismanagement: Officials allegedly diverted or misappropriated funds; billions spent without corresponding performance. Arrests have been made.
4. Structural Issues & Obsolete Infrastructure: These are plants built decades ago. Their parts, pipelines, control systems, etc., are outdated, often vandalised or not maintained properly over many years. Simply “rehabilitating” may not restore them to world‐class performance without massive overhauls.
What Needs to Change — If There’s Hope
To move from talk to real fuel production, the following must happen:
Full transparency audits on all funds allocated for refinery rehabilitation, including detailed performance reviews.
Independent technical validation of whether refineries are really working: true diagnostic tests of units, safety compliance, output volumes, etc.
Privatization or effective public-private partnerships: As Obasanjo has long argued, refineries might only succeed under private sector discipline or strong regulatory oversight.
Enforcement and accountability for those found to have misused funds or exaggerated claims. EMCC and other watchdogs must proceed.
Upgrading or replacing obsolete components rather than patchwork fixes. Sometimes starting anew is cheaper than endlessly repairing broken systems.
What once sounded like ambitious promises have revealed themselves to be hollow words. Obasanjo’s skepticism—once dismissed by many—looks more prescient every day. Nigeria has poured billions into its state refineries. The people have heard propaganda. But what matters is whether those refineries can deliver petrol, diesel, kerosene — reliably and sustainably. As it stands, they are still ghosts: expensive, empty monuments to misgovernance and misplaced hope. Unless there is real transparency, technical competence, and accountability, the litany of broken promises will continue.
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