North Central Nigeria Doesn’t Owe the North Any Loyalty — It’s Time to End the Identity Fraud
Reexamining “North Central” Nigeria: Why the Common Vote–Region Associations May Be More Illusion Than Reality
In recent months, Nigerian political discourse has grown increasingly charged with claims about regional voting blocks—particularly the notion that “the North” always votes as one unit or that certain states like Benue, Nasarawa, and Niger, often grouped under the North Central or “Middle Belt,” are politically subsumed into a monolithic “North.” However, a careful look at emerging evidence suggests these assumptions are both overly simplistic and increasingly misaligned with ground realities.
1. Fragmentation of the Northern Voting Bloc
A recent analysis highlights how the 2023 presidential election marked a distinct breakdown in what was previously assumed to be cohesive Northern solidarity. The North, once viewed as a reliably unified force, is now splintered along sub‐regional lines: the North West leaned toward Kwankwaso, the North East toward Atiku, with the North Central states largely undecided. This fragmentation diluted the region’s collective electoral leverage and shows that political identity is no longer neatly aligned with geography.
2. North‐Central's Identity: Neither “North” Nor Fully “Centre”
States like Benue, Nasarawa, Niger, and others under the North Central umbrella are increasingly asserting distinct political and cultural identities that resist simple categorization as part of “the North.” Part of this shift is conceptual—many in the region contest being lumped into a “Northern” homogeneous political narrative, partly because the “North Central” is unique in that:
It has never produced a civilian President or Vice President since independence.
Its economic, social, and political concerns often differ sharply from the core northern regions (North West and North East), especially around issues of security, infrastructure, and religious demography.
Leaders from the North Central Renaissance Movement recently rejected the PDP’s decision to zone its 2027 presidential ticket to the South. They argue that such zoning continued to marginalize the North Central, “the only zone yet to produce either a President or Vice President,” and caution that parties risk losing millions of votes in the North Central if they persist in sidelining its voice.
3. Political Narratives vs Budget Realities
Accusations of “northern marginalization” under the current administration—some led by figures like Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso—argue that federal projects, infrastructure investment, etc., are being unevenly distributed in favor of the South.
Yet, government sources offer a counter‐narrative with data:
More than 50% of the capital budget for 2024 and 2025 is reportedly earmarked for projects and programs in Northern Nigeria, especially when considering major road, railway and power projects.
Government officials have pointed to projects such as the Abuja–Kano expressway, the AKK Gas Pipeline, and infrastructural work in Nasarawa among other Northern (or North Central) states.
These conflicting narratives suggest that simple claims of neglect, based solely on region, obscure a more nuanced reality: allocation is happening, but impact and visibility may vary widely from one area to another.
4. Why the Illusion Persists
Several forces contribute to the lingering assumption that “the North” votes or acts uniformly:
Historical patterns of political leadership concentrated in certain “northern zones” give people an expectation of Northern dominance.
Ethno‐religious rhetoric plays strongly in political messaging, often simplifying complex local identities into broad “North vs South” dichotomies.
Zoning and power rotation debates in major parties like PDP and APC tend to perpetuate regional identities in public consciousness. For example, party elites discussing whether the 2027 presidential ticket should be zoned to the South, while some leaders from the North Central argue it’s been shortchanged.
5. Implications for 2027 and Beyond
Given this evolving picture, several implications stand out:
Parties that continue to treat “the North” as a monolith may miscalculate: the North Central in particular has signaled growing impatience with being assumed to align fully with the broader Northern bloc.
Voters in the so‐called North Central are likely to demand recognition of distinct identity and fair share—in projects, in zoning, in political representation.
Narratives of marginalization may strengthen unless political leaders can show tangible outcomes in devolved development, not just symbolic gestures.
6. Conclusion
In summary, the notion that states like Benue, Nasarawa, Niger, and others categorized under Nigeria’s North Central region are just “Northern” states in all relevant senses is increasingly being challenged by recent political dynamics, budget allocations, and evolving identities. The idea that “the North” always votes or acts as one—is showing itself to be more myth than fact.
To avoid perpetuating illusions, political analysts, media, and citizens must pay closer attention to:
the distinct histories and concerns of North Central states;
the socio‐economic metrics that reveal divergence in development and priorities;
and the ways in which political claims of “region” are used (or misused) in rhetoric.
As Nigeria heads toward 2027, recognizing internal diversity isn’t just a matter of intellectual precision—it may well be a political necessity.
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