The political landscape of Rivers State ahead of the 2027 gubernatorial election has turned into a dramatic battlefield defined by deep fractures, shifting alliances, and the lingering influence of power brokers with national reach. At the center of this unfolding drama are Nyesom Wike, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory and former governor of Rivers, and Siminalayi Fubara, his onetime political protégé and current governor of the oil-rich state.
Long considered one of Nigeria’s most formidable political figures, Wike’s strategic maneuvers — including his public distancing from Fubara, his influence over political structures in River State, and his vocal skepticism about Fubara’s political viability — have sparked widespread speculation that he may support or even finance a rival candidate in 2027, potentially even from an opposing party. This article explores this possibility, evaluates its viability, and situates it within the broader political context shaping Rivers State and Nigerian politics more broadly.
The Rift Between Wike and Fubara: From Alliance to Political War
To understand why Wike might break ranks and support a contender against Fubara, it is important to revisit how their relationship deteriorated.
When Governor Fubara assumed office in 2023, he had the backing of Wike, who was then governor of Rivers State and widely viewed as the most powerful political figure in the state. However, cracks in their alliance quickly surfaced. What began as a political mentorship devolved into a bitter dispute that engulfed state institutions, polarised lawmakers, and led to repeated public confrontations.
The conflict escalated to the point that it drew national attention and federal intervention. President Bola Tinubu declared a state of emergency in Rivers State in March 2025 amid a constitutional and political crisis involving Fubara and the Rivers State House of Assembly — a crisis that Wike publicly acknowledged and controversially praised as beneficial for resolving a prolonged standoff, even claiming he wanted Fubara out of office.
This level of intervention underscored how volatile the situation had become — not just for Rivers State’s governance but for its political future.
Fubara’s Defection and Wike’s Response
In a stunning turn of events in December 2025, Governor Fubara defected from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC), Nigeria’s ruling party. At face value, this strategic defection was widely interpreted as Fubara’s attempt to insulate himself from intra-party conflict, secure federal backing, and position himself as the APC standard-bearer for the 2027 governorship race.
Yet, the reaction from Wike has been dismissive and strategic. Rather than quietly conceding political space to Fubara within the APC, Wike has publicly questioned the effectiveness and timing of the defection, arguing that Fubara’s political infrastructure within APC is weak and that joining a party does not automatically confer leadership or electoral advantage.
Wike pointed out that before Fubara’s move, several local council chairmen and lawmakers had already defected to the APC, highlighting that Fubara did not bring significant political weight with him. Later, in separate remarks, he also bluntly told Fubara that supporting President Tinubu would not guarantee him the APC governorship ticket, challenging the notion that presidential backing alone ensures political success.
This rejection of Fubara’s claim to political leadership in Rivers — even within his adopted party — underscores the lack of harmony between the two figures and suggests that Wike may have no intention of facilitating Fubara’s control over party machinery or electoral destiny.
Strategic Leverage: Wike’s Influence in Both PDP and APC
Wike remains a uniquely powerful political animal. His influence extends beyond Rivers State into the national arena, where he commands respect and loyalty from party operatives, grassroots mobilisers, and political allies across party lines.
In many parts of Rivers — particularly in areas like Gokana Local Government Area, one of Wike’s strongholds — leaders within the APC have publicly acknowledged that Fubara must “go through Wike” to win support. According to the National Vice Chairman of the APC’s South-South region, Wike’s endorsement and approval are pivotal for any political success in that area.
This dynamic — a PDP stalwart virtually indispensable within APC ranks — illustrates how Wike’s political reach transcends party branding. It also reinforces the notion that Wike could, if he chooses, shape the selection and success of gubernatorial contenders outside the PDP, particularly if he calculates that Fubara is electorally weak or politically compromised.
Furthermore, political analysts have noted that Wike’s sustained prominence in both PDP and APC circles could allow him to marginalise Fubara and promote a candidate — within or outside APC — whom he believes can better protect his strategic interests in Rivers.
Why Wike Might Back an Opposing Candidate
Given this backdrop, it becomes plausible — perhaps even probable — that Wike will support a candidate other than Fubara in 2027, potentially from an opposing political formation or from a faction within APC but not aligned with Fubara.
Here are the key reasons this scenario may unfold:
1. Wike Seeks to Retain Real Power
Despite no longer holding the governorship, Wike’s political lifeblood in Rivers depends on maintaining influence. If Fubara’s continued leadership threatens Wike’s control over political leverage — especially if it erodes loyalist networks — Wike may conclude that only a new candidate beholden to him can secure the continuity of his influence.
2. Fubara Has Been Politically Weak and Isolated
Fubara’s tenure as governor has been fraught with public conflict, legislative standoffs, and a perceived inability to consolidate support even after defecting to the APC. The ongoing friction with Wike suggests that Fubara does not yet have the grassroots or elite backing necessary to command a united political front ahead of 2027.
3. Wike’s Calculated Use of Party Platforms
By straddling both PDP and APC circles, Wike has more political options than most politicians. He could support a candidate in the PDP fold who aligns with his interests, or he could back an APC candidate who differs from Fubara but is strategically positioned to win. Alternatively, he could support an independent or third-party candidate with financial and organisational backing.
Risks and Challenges of Wike’s Strategy
While it may be strategic for Wike to back an opposing candidate, this approach is not without risks:
Fragmentation of Votes: Supporting a rival to Fubara could split political support in Rivers State, potentially benefiting third-party players or strengthening opposition forces from outside APC or PDP.
Retaliation from APC or Federal Actors: If Wike’s candidate challenges APC’s official nominee (if different from Fubara), this could create tension between Wike and national party structures, potentially jeopardising his federal influence.
Perception of Political Self-Interest: Rivers voters may perceive Wike’s actions as self-serving, potentially diminishing his political capital if seen as undermining democratic processes for personal influence.
What This Means for 2027
As we approach the 2027 general elections, the Rivers State governorship race will likely remain a bellwether for broader political currents in Nigeria: factionalism within both major parties, the erosion of traditional political hierarchies, and the role of godfather politics in shaping electoral outcomes.
Wike’s apparent disdain for Fubara’s political prospects — underscored by his dismissive remarks about Fubara’s leadership and electoral viability — signals that the battle for Rivers is far from settled, and may yet see Wike aligning behind a new contender in what could be one of Nigeria’s most closely watched gubernatorial contests.
Conclusion: A Political Gambit With National Implications
In a political system where personalities often eclipse institutions, Nyesom Wike’s potential move to finance and support another contender against Siminalayi Fubara in 2027 is less about simple rivalry and more about strategic preservation of power and political relevance.
Wike’s network, influence in both APC and PDP, and his demonstrated willingness to publicly challenge Fubara — even after his defection — suggest that the 2027 Rivers State governorship contest will be defined not only by party labels but by the sheer force of political will exerted by seasoned actors like Wike.
Whether this strategy ultimately succeeds or backfires will shape not only Rivers State’s political landscape, but potentially signal broader shifts in how political alliances are formed, broken, and leveraged across Nigeria. The battle lines are drawn, and the coming year will determine whether Wike’s political gamble pays off — or whether Fubara, or another contender, emerges victorious despite the odds.
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