As Oyo State gradually approaches the end of Governor Seyi Makinde’s second term, a crucial political question is taking center stage across Ibadan, Ogbomoso, Oyo, Ibarapa, Oke-Ogun, and beyond: Can Makinde successfully produce a successor?
This is not merely a routine transition debate. It is a historical test.
Though Governor Seyi Makinde has, in many respects, surpassed his predecessors in several ramifications of governance, the political terrain of Oyo State has never been predictable. The jinx is real, and history is loud.
Let us examine the facts.
Makinde’s Governance Record: A Political Advantage Heading Into 2027
Since assuming office in 2019 under the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Makinde has carved a distinct administrative identity. His government’s focus on infrastructure expansion, education reform, agribusiness initiatives, and fiscal discipline has significantly strengthened his political standing.
Major road projects in Ibadan and other zones, the upgrading of the Ibadan Circular Road, investments in agribusiness clusters, and consistent payment of salaries and pensions have reinforced public confidence. His handling of the COVID-19 pandemic also boosted his image as a decisive and technocratic leader.
More importantly, Makinde achieved what many thought would be difficult in Oyo politics: he won re-election convincingly in 2023. In doing so, he joined the rare class of two-term governors in the state.
Before him, only Abiola Ajimobi had successfully crossed the two-term hurdle under the All Progressives Congress (APC).
That alone is significant.
The Pattern of Interrupted Political Tenures in Oyo State
To understand the magnitude of the challenge before Makinde, one must revisit Oyo’s political history.
1. Lam Adesina
Lam Adesina governed from 1999 to 2003 under the Alliance for Democracy (AD). Despite strong grassroots backing at the time, he could not secure a second term. He was defeated in the 2003 elections during the PDP wave that swept through the Southwest.
2. Rashidi Ladoja
Rashidi Ladoja’s tenure was turbulent. Though elected in 2003, he was impeached in 2006 in a controversial political crisis involving the state legislature. Even though he returned after a court ruling nullified the impeachment, the instability weakened his political base. He could not finish strongly enough to determine succession politics.
3. Adebayo Alao-Akala
Alao-Akala succeeded Ladoja and governed between 2007 and 2011. However, he failed to secure re-election in 2011, losing to Ajimobi. His inability to consolidate power long-term meant he never had the structural dominance to determine a successor.
4. Abiola Ajimobi
Ajimobi broke a major barrier by becoming the first governor in Oyo State history to win a second term in 2015. However, despite incumbency influence, political structure, and perceived backing from Lagos political networks, his anointed candidate, Adebayo Adelabu, lost the 2019 gubernatorial election.
Even with support believed to be aligned with the broader influence associated with Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s political structure and former Governor Akala’s backing, the succession plan failed.
The pattern remained intact.
The Oyo Political Jinx: Why Successors Rarely Win
The recurring trend suggests something deeper than coincidence. Oyo State politics is structurally unique.
1. Highly Independent Electorate
Oyo voters historically demonstrate independence from imposed candidates. The state’s political culture resists overt imposition, particularly from perceived external influence.
2. Elite Fragmentation
Political elites in Oyo State rarely remain unified after a governor’s tenure. Internal party fractures, zoning disputes, and ambition conflicts often derail succession plans.
3. Incumbency Fatigue
After eight years of governance, political fatigue sets in. Opposition narratives capitalize on perceived governance gaps, even if performance indicators are positive.
4. Regional Balancing Politics
Oyo politics is deeply rooted in regional power balance — Ibadan, Ogbomoso, Oke-Ogun, Ibarapa, and Oyo zones all seek representation. Any miscalculation in zoning can trigger backlash.
Makinde’s Strength Going Into Succession Politics
Unlike many before him, Makinde appears to be rounding off his tenure with high affinity ratings. His political capital remains strong.
Key advantages include:
A relatively united PDP structure within the state.
Strong grassroots connection, especially in Ibadan.
Improved financial standing of the state government.
Personal brand positioning as a calm, calculating technocrat.
But political history does not always reward logic.
Ajimobi also had structural advantages. He still could not produce a successor.
The Big Question: Will Makinde Pick the Right Successor?
The real issue is not merely whether Makinde will attempt to install a successor — that is expected. The question is:
Will he choose a candidate loved by the people first, before relying on incumbency influence?
Oyo voters have historically rejected candidates perceived as imposed.
For Makinde to break the jinx, several factors must align:
1. Candidate Popularity Beyond Party Structure
2. Balanced Zoning Consideration
3. Avoidance of Internal PDP Implosion
4. Strategic Coalition Management
5. Minimal Federal-Opposition Overpowering
Makinde must prioritize emotional acceptability over political loyalty.
Is History About to Repeat Itself?
No sitting governor in Oyo State history has successfully produced a successor.
That is the record.
Lam Adesina did not. Ladoja did not. Akala did not. Ajimobi did not.
Will Makinde become the first?
Or will the Oyo succession jinx continue its dominance?
Luck has favored Makinde in critical moments of his political career — from defeating the incumbent APC in 2019 to winning re-election smoothly in 2023. However, succession politics is different. It is less about governance performance and more about political chemistry, timing, and elite consensus.
2027: A Defining Political Moment
The 2027 Oyo gubernatorial election will not merely be about party supremacy between PDP and APC. It will be a referendum on whether incumbency influence still holds decisive weight in Oyo politics.
If Makinde succeeds, he will rewrite the state’s political history.
If he fails, the jinx will become an established doctrine in Oyo political studies.
Final Thoughts: Strategy Over Sentiment
Governor Seyi Makinde stands at a historic crossroads. His governance record provides leverage. His popularity provides momentum. But Oyo politics is rarely predictable.
To break the succession barrier, he must:
Choose competence over convenience.
Select acceptance over loyalty.
Build consensus over command.
Prioritize unity over ego.
History is watching.
Will Makinde become the first sitting governor in Oyo State to successfully produce a successor?
Or will Oyo’s political tradition remain undefeated?
The clock is ticking toward 2027.
What are your thoughts?
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