In Nigeria’s ever-heated political space, criticism often travels faster than context. Recently, a vocal online critic questioned Governor Seyi Makinde’s evolving political stance—particularly his perceived shift from supporting President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2023 to opposing him ahead of 2027. The argument, largely driven by sentiment rather than substance, frames Makinde’s position as contradictory. However, a closer and more informed look reveals a deeper, principle-driven political philosophy rooted in democratic balance and national interest—not personal or regional loyalty.
From 2023 Alliance to 2027 Reality
Governor Makinde’s support for Tinubu during the 2023 presidential election was not based on ethnic solidarity, despite both being Yoruba. Instead, it was anchored in a widely held belief in power rotation. After eight years under former President Muhammadu Buhari, Makinde and others argued that fairness demanded a return of the presidency to Southern Nigeria. That conviction led him to oppose his own party’s Northern candidate and back Tinubu.
However, political contexts evolve—and so do responsibilities. The current concern, as raised by Makinde, is the growing dominance of the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), and the increasing defection of opposition figures into its fold. With over 30 state governors now aligned with the APC, Nigeria risks drifting toward a de facto one-party state.
The Danger of a One-Party System
While some dismiss this as routine political maneuvering, history suggests otherwise. Democracies thrive on competition, accountability, and choice. When opposition voices are weakened or silenced, governance risks becoming unchecked.
Global examples reinforce this concern. Venezuela, once one of Latin America’s most stable democracies, descended into economic and political crisis after opposition structures eroded. Similarly, Ghana under Kwame Nkrumah transitioned into a one-party state in 1964, a move that ultimately triggered political instability and a military coup. In Kenya, Jomo Kenyatta’s centralization of power brought development but also entrenched inequality and repression.
Even more dramatically, Adolf Hitler’s rise in Germany illustrates how democratic systems can be dismantled from within when opposition is eliminated. These examples highlight a consistent lesson: when citizens and leaders fail to protect democratic plurality, the consequences can be severe.
Makinde’s Position: Democracy Over Personal Politics
At the National Summit of Opposition Political Leaders held in Ibadan in April 2026, Makinde clarified his stance. His position, he emphasized, is not a personal attack on President Tinubu nor a strategy for individual political ambition. Rather, it is a defense of democratic integrity.
According to him, democracy is defined by real alternatives and meaningful choices. Without opposition, elections lose their significance, and governance becomes less accountable. His warning is clear: Nigeria must avoid sliding into a one-party structure that limits citizens’ freedoms and weakens institutional checks and balances.
Oyo State as a Governance Case Study
Beyond political theory, Makinde’s leadership in Oyo State provides a practical example of governance focused on development. Contrary to claims of rising poverty, data and policy outcomes suggest a different narrative.
Drawing from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) multidimensional poverty framework—which evaluates health, education, living standards, employment, and security—the Makinde administration has implemented targeted interventions across all sectors.
In healthcare, over 300 Primary Healthcare Centres have been upgraded under the “One Ward, One PHC” initiative. Facilities such as Adeoyo Maternity Hospital and LAUTECH Teaching Hospital have also received significant improvements.
In agriculture, policies like the 50% tractorization subsidy and digital soil testing across 100 communities have boosted productivity. Financial support programs, including ₦1 billion in agricultural loans, have empowered thousands of farmers.
Education reforms have been equally impactful. The removal of school fees in 2019 led to the return of over 65,000 out-of-school children. Investments in infrastructure—nearly 1,000 renovated classrooms and over 60 model schools—have strengthened the sector. Additionally, Oyo State now fully owns Ladoke Akintola University of Technology (LAUTECH), which has since experienced improved performance and stability.
Employment generation has also been significant, with over 20,000 jobs created across education, healthcare, civil service, and security sectors.
Infrastructure, Security and Social Welfare
Infrastructure development remains a cornerstone of Makinde’s strategy. Nearly 600 kilometers of roads have been constructed or rehabilitated, linking key economic zones and facilitating trade. Studies across Africa have shown that improved road networks directly reduce poverty levels by enhancing access to markets and services.
Security has improved through collaboration with federal agencies, the establishment of the Amotekun Corps, and investments in logistics, including over 500 patrol vehicles. The creation of a Nigerian Air Force base in Ajia has further strengthened response capacity.
Social welfare initiatives, including health insurance schemes and financial support for vulnerable populations, have reached over one million households. Pension reforms and prompt payments have also improved the quality of life for retirees.
Posterity and Political Legacy
Ultimately, Makinde’s political decisions appear guided by a consistent principle: prioritizing Nigeria’s democratic future over short-term alliances. His actions in 2023 and his current stance both reflect a willingness to challenge dominant narratives when necessary.
History often judges leaders not by popular opinion in the moment, but by the long-term impact of their choices. As Nigeria navigates its evolving political landscape, the debate around democracy, opposition, and governance will remain central.
What is clear, however, is that the preservation of democratic plurality is not just a political preference—it is a necessity. And for Governor Seyi Makinde, that necessity appears to outweigh every other consideration.
By Sulaimon Olanrewaju (Rewritten & Expanded Clarity)
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