Tinubu’s Political Chessboard: Why Every Oyo Aspirant Is “Right” — And Still on Their Own
In the evolving political landscape of Oyo State, recent claims and counterclaims among leading aspirants in the All Progressives Congress (APC) have stirred conversations about loyalty, endorsements, and the elusive “presidential backing.” Yet, a closer look at the unfolding dynamics suggests a more nuanced reality: all parties involved may indeed be telling the truth—just not the full story.
At the center of this political narrative is Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a veteran strategist widely regarded as one of Nigeria’s most calculating political figures. Reports attributed to Ayo Adeseun and Fatai Ibikunle regarding the President’s assurances to Sharafadeen Alli appear credible. In the same vein, Adebayo Adelabu has also maintained that the message he relayed from the President to his supporters was genuine.
The truth is, these accounts are not mutually exclusive—they are complementary reflections of how high-level Nigerian politics operates.
Sources familiar with internal APC consultations indicate that President Tinubu has indeed held separate engagements with multiple aspirants, offering words of encouragement and strategic reassurance. This is not unusual. In Nigerian political culture, particularly within dominant parties, leaders often adopt a balancing approach—keeping all contenders motivated while avoiding premature commitments that could fracture party unity.
Take the case of Adelabu. His decision to delay his resignation from public office until after securing a direct audience with the President underscores the weight he placed on that conversation. Following that meeting, he proceeded with his resignation, reinforcing his claim that his actions were guided by presidential counsel.
But the story goes deeper.
Before taking that decisive step, Adelabu reportedly consulted elder statesmen within the APC. He first approached Bisi Akande, a respected party chieftain and former interim national chairman of the APC. Akande, known for his strategic discipline, advised Adelabu to also seek counsel from Olusegun Osoba.
In a twist that highlights the interconnectedness of Nigeria’s political elite, Osoba reportedly echoed Akande’s advice—directing Adelabu back to him. This circular consultation was not confusion; it was a deliberate process of alignment, ensuring that any major political move was collectively understood and subtly endorsed by key stakeholders.
Eventually, Adelabu, Akande, and Osoba held a joint meeting with President Tinubu. It was only after this high-level engagement that Adelabu formalized his resignation, lending further credibility to his narrative.
So, who is telling the truth? The answer is simple: everyone.
But here lies the real lesson—truth in politics is often layered.
President Tinubu, often described in political circles as a master tactician, operates with a long-game mindset. His approach reflects a broader principle within Nigerian politics: never close the door on any viable contender too early. By offering assurances to multiple aspirants, he maintains influence, preserves party cohesion, and keeps the race competitive.
This strategy, while pragmatic, also places the burden squarely on the aspirants themselves.
No amount of perceived endorsement can replace the hard realities of political competition. Party tickets—especially in a high-stakes environment like Oyo APC—are not handed out as favors. They are earned through structure-building, grassroots mobilization, delegate negotiations, and strategic alliances.
In essence, every aspirant who meets the President may hear what sounds like encouragement—or even validation. But that should not be mistaken for a guaranteed ticket.
If another hopeful were to visit President Tinubu today to declare their ambition, it is highly likely they would receive a similar response—measured, supportive, yet non-committal. That is the nature of seasoned political leadership.
The same applies to engagements with party elders like Akande and Osoba. Their counsel is often less about choosing sides and more about ensuring that aspirants navigate the process with discipline and respect for party hierarchy.
What does this mean for the APC in Oyo State?
It signals an open contest—one where no single aspirant can claim absolute backing based solely on private conversations. The race remains fluid, and the outcome will depend on who best understands the mechanics of the party, builds the strongest coalition, and demonstrates electoral viability.
In the end, politics is not just about what is said behind closed doors—it is about what is delivered in the open field.
And in this game, every aspirant has been encouraged—but none has been crowned.
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