Governor Ademola Adeleke may have secured the mandate to continue in office for a second term, but another political battle is already taking shape: what happens to his influence over Osun’s National Assembly seats and the wider political structure in the 2027 general elections?
This is why Adeleke’s decision to support President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for 2027 deserves closer political scrutiny.
The governor’s endorsement of Tinubu may strengthen his relationship with the Federal Government and position him within the broader South-West political equation. But there is a potential danger: the same presidential political wave Adeleke helps create could also work against his preferred candidates for the Senate and House of Representatives.
Osun has already experienced the consequences of political realignment.
Among the major forces to emerge from the cracks within the PDP were Senator Francis Fadahunsi, who represented Osun East, and Hon. Wole Oke, representing Obokun-Oriade Federal Constituency. Both eventually moved to the All Progressives Congress, alongside other PDP National Assembly members. In February 2026, five PDP federal lawmakers in Osun formally defected to the APC, including Fadahunsi and Oke.
From Adeleke’s political standpoint, these defections represented a serious loss of established political structures and relationships. Whether one calls the defectors traitors, political realists or politicians responding to changing circumstances, their movement to the APC undoubtedly altered the balance of power in constituencies where Adeleke and the PDP once had significant influence.
The governor subsequently moved from the PDP to Accord, building a new political platform around his second-term ambition. Accord has attracted politicians from rival parties, including APC and SDP figures in Obokun who declared support for Adeleke.
But the bigger question remains:
How does Adeleke produce Accord senators and federal lawmakers capable of replacing the political influence lost through the defections?
Winning the governorship is one battle. Controlling the National Assembly delegation is another.
This is where the experience of Governor Seyi Makinde in Oyo State becomes particularly instructive.
In 2023, Makinde openly supported Tinubu’s presidential ambition despite belonging to the PDP. Tinubu subsequently won Oyo State’s presidential election, while Makinde himself secured a landslide victory in the governorship election.
But the National Assembly results told a different story.
The APC won all three senatorial seats in Oyo State. In Oyo South, Sharafadeen Alli defeated PDP’s Olasunkanmi Tegbe with 111,513 votes to 92,481. APC also won Oyo Central and Oyo North.
That outcome illustrates an important feature of Nigerian electoral psychology: voters do not always treat every ballot as an entirely separate political decision. A powerful presidential candidate, especially one enjoying strong regional support, can generate a political momentum that affects legislative contests.
Makinde survived that political reality and won his second term convincingly. But his PDP's failure to retain the senatorial seats demonstrated how quickly a governor’s influence can be separated from the fortunes of his party’s legislative candidates.
For Adeleke, this should be a major strategic consideration.
He may win the governorship by the will of Osun voters, but what happens to the candidates he supports in the general elections of 2027?
If Adeleke campaigns for Tinubu and Tinubu enjoys a strong APC performance in Osun, can the governor simultaneously persuade voters to support Accord candidates for the Senate and House of Representatives?
That is the political dilemma.
Makinde is now focused on protecting his influence in Oyo State, preserving his political legacy and ensuring that the political structure associated with him remains relevant beyond his tenure. The lesson is that political leaders eventually have to look beyond winning one election; they must build a structure capable of protecting their influence for posterity.
History provides an even bigger warning.
In the 2003 elections, the PDP dramatically expanded its influence across the South-West, displacing the Alliance for Democracy from much of the region. Contemporary analyses described the development as a sweeping PDP advance, while official parliamentary figures show the PDP winning 223 of the 360 House of Representatives seats nationally, compared with 34 for the AD.
The 2003 experience demonstrated that political dominance can change rapidly when voters align around a powerful national political force.
That is precisely why Adeleke must think beyond his own re-election.
The real challenge is not merely winning Osun again. It is retaining the political influence required to decide who represents Osun after the governorship election.
Supporting Tinubu may be politically beneficial to Adeleke today. But if that alliance strengthens APC candidates at the legislative level, the governor could eventually discover an uncomfortable irony: he may help build a political wave powerful enough to weaken the very structure he needs to protect his own legacy.
In Nigerian politics, winning the big seat is important.
But controlling what happens after you win it may be even more important.
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