As the 2027 Oyo State Governorship election gradually approaches, the political landscape is already heating up — and one man who holds the decisive card is none other than Governor Seyi Makinde.
Makinde’s growing influence across Oyo politics and the PDP structure puts him in a unique position to shape the future of the state’s next leadership. Whether he decides to anoint a successor or directly influence intra-party alignments, the current governor's popularity and political reach cannot be underestimated.
🔍 The Power of Performance: Why Makinde Matters
Since assuming office in 2019, Governor Seyi Makinde has redefined political engagement in Oyo State. His governance style—widely seen as transparent, technocratic, and people-oriented—has endeared him to both grassroots voters and urban elites.
In the 2019 governorship election, Makinde secured a massive 515,621 votes (56.24%), defeating his closest rival, Adebayo Adelabu of the APC, who polled 357,982 votes (39.04%). This wide margin marked a historic victory, underscoring his political capital and the people’s trust.
Compared to the 2015 results, where the late Governor Abiola Ajimobi of APC won with 327,310 votes, Adelabu only added 30,672 votes more in 2019 despite massive spending and media presence. It was a political shocker for APC and raised doubts about Adelabu’s gubernatorial viability.
⚖️ Teslim Folarin: A Senator, Not a Governor?
The name Teslim Folarin continues to surface in political conversations as a perennial candidate. However, available data and electoral history indicate a clear pattern: Folarin has not demonstrated gubernatorial strength in Oyo State.
In the 2015 gubernatorial election, he contested under the PDP and received only 79,019 votes (8.78%), coming a distant fourth behind Ajimobi (APC), Ladoja (Accord), and Alao Akala (Labour). Even Makinde, who ran under a smaller Social Democratic Party (SDP), secured 54,740 votes.
In the 2019 senatorial election, Folarin returned to the Senate representing Oyo Central under the APC, with 91,080 votes (33.43%), narrowly defeating Bisi Ilaka of the PDP (30.68%). However, his margin of victory was far less convincing compared to other senatorial zones in the state, which had winning margins in excess of 10,000 votes.
These statistics suggest that while Folarin retains some regional strength, especially in Oyo Central, he lacks the widespread support required to win a state-wide governorship election.
🔍 Oyo Politics: A Battle of Structure, Strategy, and Popularity
Oyo State is one of Nigeria’s most politically conscious states. Unlike many others, its electorate doesn’t follow a fixed voting pattern and is known to reward performance over party loyalty. This makes the 2027 election even more interesting.
With Makinde who will complete his constitutionally allowed two terms in 2027, his successor — if endorsed and strategically presented — may enjoy the same political goodwill that swept Makinde to victory. But this depends on the continued performance of his administration and how internal PDP politics are managed.
As it stands, the opposition APC remains fragmented, and its past flagbearers have failed to match Makinde’s performance or voter connection. Both Adelabu and Folarin appear to be struggling with grassroots acceptability despite their political ambitions and prior positions.
🧠 Conclusion: Who Holds the Ace?
In a state where performance, accessibility, and public perception matter deeply, Governor Seyi Makinde holds the ace in determining who occupies Agodi Government House come 2027.
His administration’s policies, infrastructural projects, workers' welfare, and education reforms have created a legacy that any would-be candidate must either build upon — or be prepared to challenge with extraordinary strategy.
And as for Teslim Folarin and Adebayo Adelabu, the numbers don’t lie. Until either of them demonstrates cross-regional political appeal and a compelling agenda for Oyo’s future, Makinde remains the kingmaker in the state's evolving political chessboard.
🗳️ 2027 is not just about ambition — it’s about strategy, popularity, and the legacy of those who have earned the people’s trust.
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