As the August 16th by-election in Ibadan North Federal Constituency draws closer, the political temperature in Oyo State continues to rise. The emergence of Murphy Adigun as the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate—allegedly with the strong backing of Minister of Power, Chief Adebayo Adelabu—has sparked a fresh wave of discontent within the party, exposing cracks that could extend far beyond the upcoming election.
⚠️ APC’s Internal Crisis: Adelabu's Grip and Its Consequences
Chief Adebayo Adelabu, who now holds significant influence over the Oyo APC structure, has faced internal criticism for what some stakeholders describe as a unilateral decision to push Murphy’s candidacy. Many party loyalists view the selection as a top-down imposition rather than a grassroots consensus, leading to silent rebellion and disunity within the party ranks.
This discord mirrors the underwhelming performance of Adelabu himself during the 2023 general elections, where his gubernatorial bid under the Accord Party returned less than 50,000 votes statewide. Despite his return to the APC and subsequent federal appointment, the aura of electoral underperformance continues to haunt his political camp.
🧩 PDP in a Stronger Position Than Ever
In stark contrast, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) appears to be in firm control of the political landscape in Oyo. With the unwavering popularity of Governor Seyi Makinde and a well-oiled local government structure, the PDP is positioned for a smooth victory in Ibadan North—absent of the inter-party coalitions that disrupted its 2023 strategy.
According to INEC data and verified political forecasts, no major political alliance or national interference seems poised to rescue APC from its internal storm. Analysts argue that unless something drastic happens, the PDP could cruise to victory, further solidifying its dominance ahead of the 2027 elections.
🗳️ What the By-Election Means for 2027
This by-election isn’t just a contest for a House of Representatives seat—it’s a litmus test for 2027. A loss here for APC would be a public indictment of Adelabu's leadership and a warning sign that the party may be ill-prepared for the next general elections.
“The stakes are higher than they seem,” said a top Oyo-based political analyst. “This by-election will either reestablish APC’s credibility or confirm its weakening grip in a state that was once a stronghold.”
If PDP wins by a large margin, it may trigger a realignment of forces across the state and even at the South-West regional level, putting more pressure on APC to rebuild its ranks or face a wipeout in 2027.
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