Why Arab States Are Silent on Iran’s Unrest: Fear of Chaos, Regional Stability, and a New Middle East Order
In early 2026, Iran has once again been engulfed in mass protests—challenges to the Islamic Republic arguably more existential than the nationwide movement seen in 2022. Yet, for all the turmoil inside Iran’s borders, the response from neighboring Arab states has been strikingly subdued. While thousands have taken to the streets and hundreds have died under a brutal security crackdown, Arab governments have largely avoided public commentary or outright condemnation of Tehran’s handling of the unrest or of the Iranian regime itself.
This unexpected silence raises a central question: Why have Arab states, especially powerful Gulf monarchies, refrained from vocal support of Iranian protesters or direct criticism of the government—even though many would theoretically welcome a weakened Tehran? The answer lies at the intersection of realpolitik, regional economics, security calculations, and historical memory.
📌 What’s Happening in Iran: A Nation Under Pressure
Before understanding regional silence, it’s essential to grasp the scale of Iran’s crisis. Starting in late December 2025, nationwide protests erupted over economic hardship and spiraled into broader demands for political change. Iran’s government responded with force: mass arrests, lethal crackdowns, and internet shutdowns have been reported, with thousands detained and more than 2,500 dead according to independent rights data.
In this context, the country’s Supreme Leader and state officials have blamed “foreign adversaries” like the U.S. and Israel for fomenting unrest, using nationalistic rhetoric to justify repression.
🌍 From Outspoken to Muted: The Arab World’s Changing Reaction
In contrast to earlier waves of unrest, when Arab media and publics vocally cheered protests or at least discussed them extensively, today’s official Arab response has been remarkably quiet. Outside some rare statements urging regional stability or warning against foreign military strikes on Iran, most Gulf states, North African governments, and other Arab capitals have chosen restraint.
This muted reaction contrasts sharply with the intense 24/7 coverage Arabic-language media offered in 2022 and reflects fundamental shifts in regional geopolitics.
📉 1. Arab Perceptions of Iran’s Diminished Power
Once considered a dominant force shaping Middle Eastern politics through proxies and ideological influence—from Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Houthis in Yemen—Iran’s regional network of allies has been weakened by successive conflicts:
Hezbollah faces persistent Israeli air strikes and loss of strength since the wars following October 7, 2023.
The Assad regime in Syria, long pro-Iranian, has collapsed as Iranian influence in Damascus weakens.
Iran itself suffered widespread bombardment from U.S. and Israeli forces in 2025.
These developments have reduced Tehran’s fearsome reputation and made its regional role less central to Arab security calculations. With its proxy network strained and military capital depleted, Iran is perceived as a less potent threat, decreasing the incentive for Arab states to publicly condemn its internal repression or to appear aligned with anti-government demonstrators.
🛡 2. Fear of Chaos, Instability, and Spillover Effects
Arab governments—particularly those in the Gulf—have lived through the devastating consequences of state collapse and prolonged conflict in neighboring countries. The brutal civil wars in Iraq and Syria are vivid reminders of how quickly unrest can spill across borders, sending refugees and extremist networks into more stable lands.
For Gulf monarchies, chaos is a threat far greater than Iran’s political system:
Iran’s proximity across the Gulf means unrest could lead to waves of refugees seeking shelter in small, highly populated Gulf states.
A disintegrating Iran might lose control over dangerous weapons, including ballistic missiles and drones.
Economic disruptions to global energy markets are a real risk; nearly 20% of global oil shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, just off Iran’s southern coast.
Arab leaders have openly warned against U.S. military strikes on Tehran, arguing that such action could destabilize the region and harm global oil supplies. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman have privately urged U.S. officials not to escalate military engagement against Iran for fear of broader regional conflict.
⚖️ 3. No Love Lost—Yet No Desire for Power Vacuums
Despite deep ideological and political rivalry with Iran—rooted in sectarian divisions and geopolitical competition—Arab states cannot afford the uncertainty that comes with Iran’s sudden collapse. Many would welcome a Tehran that curtails its nuclear ambitions and renounces support for militias. Yet a power vacuum could empower even more radical factions within Iran’s fractured political landscape.
This is particularly true for conservative Gulf monarchies, whose own legitimacy is partly based on promises of stability. A revolution in Iran could embolden dissent at home, where populations have long sought greater political freedoms.
🕊 4. Echoes of Regional Memory and Strategy
The collective experience of the Arab world over the last two decades—marked by the U.S. invasions of Iraq, protracted civil wars, and the rise of extremist groups—has shaped a profound skepticism of abrupt regime change. Gulf states, once vocally critical of Iran’s nuclear programme and regional adventures, have increasingly preferred quiet diplomacy and stability over confrontation. Analysts note that Saudi Arabia has even engaged in political rapprochement with Tehran to reduce the prospect of conflict.
📌 5. The Role of Arab Public Opinion and Media
While governments maintain official silence, many Arabic media outlets and social commentators remain conflicted. Pan-Arab broadcasters once touted Iranian unrest as emblematic of resistance against authoritarianism. Today, coverage of Iran’s protests is less intense, dominated by concerns over regional wars, economic priorities, and other crises that threaten Arab capitals more directly.
This reticence in media reflects a calculated diplomatic posture—neither endorsing Iran’s regime nor openly backing forces that could destabilize the broader Middle East.
🔮 What This Means for the Future
The Arab states’ silence on Iran’s uprising reveals a deeper evolution in Middle Eastern geopolitics:
A shift from ideological confrontation to pragmatic diplomacy
A prioritization of economic stability and security over partisan support
Recognition that regional unity against chaos may outweigh rivalry over old grievances
While Iran’s internal fate remains uncertain, regional actors appear to have decided that stability—however fragile—is better than the unknown consequences of a collapsing state.
In a region long shaped by conflict, silence can be strategic. Arab states may loathe the Iranian regime, but they fear what might come after its fall even more. From the Gulf’s energy corridors to the capitals of North Africa and the Levant, the overriding priority remains clear: preventing the next conflagration in a region already scarred by too many wars.
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