As the 2027 election season approaches, politics in Oyo State is entering one of its most complicated phases in recent history. Beneath the usual campaign promises lies a deeper contest involving succession politics, federal influence, party intrigue, and perhaps the most critical issue for voters: electricity.
Governor Seyi Makinde is approaching the end of his constitutionally permitted second term. Like many Nigerian governors before him, the question of succession is now central to the political chessboard. The outgoing governor is widely believed to be preparing to anoint a preferred successor who will protect his political legacy and maintain influence over the state’s political structure.
But the battle for Oyo’s future leadership goes beyond the state.
At the federal level, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is also looking ahead to his own political survival. With the 2027 presidential election looming, Tinubu must secure strong electoral bases across the Southwest. Oyo and neighboring Osun State are particularly strategic battlegrounds.
The political arithmetic is simple: governors remain the most powerful electoral mobilizers in Nigerian politics. Their influence over party structures, local government networks, and grassroots mobilization often determines the outcome of elections.
The 2023 elections offered a clear example.
In Osun, Tinubu lost the presidential vote largely because Governor Ademola Adeleke supported Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party. Atiku secured 354,366 votes in the state while Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress came second with 343,945 votes, winning only 10 local government areas compared to Atiku’s 20.
That outcome reinforced a long-standing truth in Nigerian politics: when a sitting governor throws his weight behind a candidate, the electoral consequences are usually decisive.
This is why Oyo State has become one of the most closely watched political territories ahead of 2027.
During the 2023 presidential election, Makinde — despite being a member of the PDP — was part of the influential G5 governors who openly rebelled against their party’s leadership. The group refused to support Atiku and instead backed Tinubu’s presidential bid in what became one of the most dramatic internal revolts in Nigerian political history.
Now the alliances that shaped 2023 are shifting again.
One of the key figures emerging in Oyo’s governorship race is Adebayo Adelabu, the current Minister of Power and a longtime political ally of Tinubu. Adelabu is widely believed to be preparing for another governorship attempt, this time with strong backing from the presidency.
But his political ambitions face a major obstacle: Nigeria’s troubled electricity sector.
Before becoming president, Tinubu made a bold pledge to Nigerians. He promised to fix the country’s power sector within his first term and famously stated that voters should not re-elect him if electricity problems remained unresolved.
One of his major reforms came with the signing of the Electricity Act 2023. The law removed electricity from the exclusive legislative list, allowing state governments to generate, transmit, and distribute electricity within their own borders.
This historic decentralization effectively transformed power supply into a state-level responsibility.
Several states — including Enugu State, Ondo State, Ekiti State, Imo State, Edo State, Kogi State and Oyo — have already begun taking control of their electricity markets.
In Oyo, Makinde’s administration established the Oyo State Electricity Regulatory Commission, which now regulates electricity generation, distribution, licensing, and tariffs within the state. Regulatory oversight was officially transferred from the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission to OSERC, making Oyo one of the first states in Nigeria to exercise full intrastate power authority.
The law also allows the state to partner with independent power producers and private operators to expand electricity supply while imposing strict penalties for vandalism and electricity theft.
Yet despite these reforms, Nigeria continues to experience recurring national grid collapses and widespread blackouts — crises that have occurred multiple times since Adelabu assumed office as power minister.
Critics have seized on these failures, mockingly labeling him the “minister of darkness,” although Adelabu has repeatedly argued that the decentralization of electricity means states must now take greater responsibility for power generation.
And that argument may shape the most important debate in Oyo’s 2027 governorship race.
For the first time in the state’s political history, voters may demand something more concrete than traditional campaign promises. They will want detailed plans explaining how the next governor intends to generate electricity, build independent power infrastructure, and guarantee constant power supply.
The real question facing every governorship aspirant is simple but unavoidable:
Whoever wants to govern Oyo after 2027 must not just promise power — they must explain exactly how they will generate it. ⚡
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