Politics in Nigeria rewards long-term strategists, not just election winners. For Seyi Makinde, the governor of Oyo State, the next few years may determine whether he becomes a national power broker—or simply another former governor whose influence fades after leaving office.
The situation unfolding in the South-West today carries echoes of the political earthquake of 2003 when the Peoples Democratic Party swept almost every state in the region. Yet the current moment is different. Instead of a sweeping regional wave, Makinde increasingly appears like a lone ranger within South-West politics, navigating an environment dominated by the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Rumours have already begun to swirl around Makinde’s future. Some political observers claim he may consider a presidential ambition in the distant future, while others speculate he could be heading to the Senate after completing his tenure as governor. However, Nigerian political history shows that such moves are far from guaranteed pathways to relevance.
Recent precedents offer cautionary lessons. Three members of the so-called G5 governors who rebelled within the PDP ahead of the 2023 elections later contested for Senate seats and lost. Even the late former Oyo State governor, Abiola Ajimobi, failed in his attempt to return to the Senate after leaving office.
These examples highlight a simple but brutal reality in Nigerian politics: once a governor leaves office without firmly securing a political structure, influence can evaporate quickly.
The Tinubu Factor and the Power of Governors
Another key variable in the equation is the political influence of sitting governors during elections. In Nigeria’s political system, governors often determine the direction of electoral outcomes within their states through political machinery, grassroots networks, and strategic alliances.
This reality was evident during the 2023 presidential election. Although Bola Ahmed Tinubu eventually won the presidency nationwide, the dynamics in individual states told a different story. In Osun State, the influence of the sitting governor, Ademola Adeleke, played a significant role in shaping voting patterns.
The Peoples Democratic Party’s presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, won Osun with 354,366 votes, while Tinubu secured 343,945 votes. Atiku carried 20 local government areas, while Tinubu won 10.
The message from that outcome was clear: when a sitting governor throws political weight behind a candidate, the impact can be decisive.
Makinde himself demonstrated this kind of influence during the political turbulence surrounding the G5 governors’ rebellion within the PDP. Despite tensions within the party, the governor maintained strong political relevance in Oyo State and helped shape electoral outcomes.
Oyo and Osun: The South-West Battleground
Today, both Oyo and Osun remain politically strategic states in the South-West. The APC views them as critical to consolidating regional dominance, yet neither state is completely secure politically.
Osun is governed by Adeleke, while Makinde continues to maintain strong control over Oyo’s political landscape. However, the unresolved crisis within the PDP has created uncertainty about the future alignment of key political actors.
This leaves several major questions hanging over Makinde’s next move.
Will he remain within the PDP and attempt to become the party’s strongest surviving governor in the South-West?
Will he attempt to install a political successor in Oyo State and cement a long-term political dynasty?
Or will he eventually defect to another political platform ahead of the 2027 elections?
The Successor Question
Perhaps the most important test of Makinde’s political strength will be succession politics.
In Oyo State, no sitting governor has successfully installed a successor from the same political party in recent political history. Achieving that feat would instantly elevate Makinde’s status as a strategic political builder.
If he succeeds, it would signal that his political structure is strong enough to outlive his tenure—something that separates enduring political leaders from temporary office holders.
Building a Political Empire
For Makinde, the smartest strategy may not be chasing another political office immediately after leaving the Government House. Instead, the more strategic path could be focusing on consolidating power locally while expanding influence across the South-West.
This is precisely the model that built the national stature of President Tinubu. Long before becoming president, Tinubu spent years building political structures, nurturing alliances, and positioning loyalists across multiple levels of government.
If Makinde adopts a similar approach—strengthening his political base in Oyo while extending influence across the region—he could gradually evolve into a major national power broker.
The Jagaban Path?
The real question is whether Makinde will play the long game.
If he resists the temptation of immediate political appointments and instead focuses on building a durable political network, he could transform himself from a state governor into one of Nigeria’s most influential political strategists.
In that scenario, Makinde would not merely remain relevant after leaving office. He could eventually become the South-West’s next major political kingmaker.
In Nigerian politics, the difference between fading into obscurity and becoming a national force often lies in one decision: whether to chase power—or build it.
For Seyi Makinde, the next few years may determine which path he ultimately chooses.
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