“I am not a politician so I will say my truth. We were producing and losing 98% of our oil produce to theft till 2023. Today, we only lose 2% to theft and make 98% profit. We don’t need to know anyone in CBN to get dollars.” — Tony Elumelu
Tony Elumelu’s latest remarks on Nigeria’s oil industry have reignited an important conversation about crude oil theft, production losses, foreign exchange access and the reforms taking place in the country’s energy sector.
Speaking from the perspective of a businessman rather than a politician, the Chairman of Heirs Energies and UBA Group presented what amounts to a dramatic before-and-after picture of Nigeria’s oil industry. His central argument is straightforward: the country has moved from a period when crude theft was crippling production to one where operators are increasingly able to secure their assets, increase output and retain much more of what they produce.
The figures attributed to Elumelu are striking. He says Nigeria was effectively losing 98% of its oil production to theft until 2023 and now loses only about 2%. However, earlier publicly available statements from Heirs Energies described oil losses on its OML 17 asset as having peaked at 97% in late 2021, before falling below 15% by 2024.
That distinction is important because the broader national data also confirms that Nigeria has made substantial progress in reducing crude losses.
According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), crude losses declined from 37.6 million barrels in 2021, equivalent to an average of about 102,900 barrels per day, to approximately 20.9 million barrels in 2022 and 4.3 million barrels in 2023. Losses remained around 4.1 million barrels in 2024.
The regulator's figures provide context for Elumelu's optimism. Nigeria produced about 552.8 million barrels of crude and condensate in 2023, while total production rose to approximately 578.5 million barrels in 2024, according to NUPRC's annual reports.
The improvement has been associated with stronger security operations, collaboration between oil companies and host communities, better metering and increased surveillance of production and evacuation infrastructure. Government-backed initiatives, including intensified operations against oil theft in the Niger Delta, have also been credited with helping to raise production. Reuters reported that Nigeria's average output had recovered from roughly 1.4 million barrels per day to about 1.8 million barrels per day during 2024.
Elumelu's second major point is equally significant: access to foreign exchange should not depend on knowing somebody at the Central Bank of Nigeria.
For Nigerian businesses, that statement goes beyond the oil sector. It speaks to the longstanding concerns around access to dollars, exchange-rate distortions, preferential treatment and the ability of genuine businesses to obtain foreign currency through transparent channels.
His message is essentially that a functioning economy should reward productivity, investment and legitimate business activity—not personal connections.
Elumelu has consistently argued that Nigeria must unlock the value of its natural resources and increase oil production while using the proceeds to strengthen the wider economy. His company, Heirs Energies, has itself recorded significant growth since taking over operatorship of OML 17 in 2021, with production increasing substantially from its initial levels.
Ultimately, the bigger issue raised by Elumelu is not merely whether Nigeria can stop oil theft. It is whether the country can finally create an environment where what is produced is properly measured, what is earned is transparently accounted for, and businesses can access the foreign exchange they need without having to “know anyone.”
If those changes are sustained, Nigeria's oil sector could once again become a powerful engine of economic growth rather than a symbol of the enormous wealth the country repeatedly loses.
And perhaps that is the real truth Elumelu wants Nigerians to hear: the oil was never the problem. The way Nigeria managed its oil was.
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