There is a crisis everywhere in Oyo politics.
The political pendulum is swinging, and as the state approaches the 2027 election, almost every passing week appears to bring a new political calculation. Before now, I had projected that the political scorecard favoured the Allied Peoples Movement (APM), the platform associated with Governor Seyi Makinde. But the landscape is changing, and several emerging forces of discontent could become serious problems for the alliance.
The first major issue is the growing grumbling surrounding the emergence of Bimbo Adekanmbi as APM’s governorship candidate. APM formally adopted Adekanmbi as its consensus candidate in May 2026, with Governor Makinde publicly presenting him and urging him not to inherit political enemies.
Yet, beneath the public display of unity, there have been complaints from sections of the party. The argument being whispered within some circles is that Adekanmbi was not originally regarded as part of the central political picture before his movement through the PDP and subsequently APM. Whether these grievances eventually become an open rebellion remains to be seen, but Nigerian politics has repeatedly shown that silent grumbling inside a political structure can become very loud when elections draw closer.
Then comes the explosive question of local government autonomy.
Governor Makinde’s 2024 comments questioning the practical implications of the Supreme Court’s local-government financial autonomy judgment remain a potential opposition talking point. Makinde described the judgment as a distraction and questioned the capacity of local governments to generate sufficient revenue.
For the opposition, this provides ammunition: they can argue that local government autonomy is constitutionally recognised and that the Supreme Court’s decision was intended to enforce direct financial access rather than create an entirely new tier of government.
This issue could become particularly sensitive among local-government political actors who believe their influence and resources have historically been controlled from the state level. The political reality is that many local actors may complain privately while remaining publicly cautious because nobody wants to attract the wrath of the government in power.
And there is already evidence that the local-government question is generating tension inside APM.
Alhaji Adebisi Aremu Olopoeyan, a major APM figure, recently hosted 24 members of the party’s 30-member state executive committee and chairmen from 32 of the state’s 33 local government areas amid disagreements over the management of the party and the process that produced candidates for the forthcoming local government elections.
Interestingly, Olopoeyan subsequently insisted that he and APM members were not abandoning the party, saying the agitation was about recognition and participation. That clarification itself is politically significant: when a major party stakeholder has to publicly explain that internal disagreement does not mean defection, it tells you there is something worth watching.
The opposition is already moving into this space.
Olooye Adegboyega Taofeek Adegoke, now the ADC governorship candidate, has emerged as one of the major alternative forces in the 2027 contest. He won the ADC primary with 16,051 votes.
His reported strategic engagement with Olopoeyan therefore deserves political attention. There may be no cameras, no press conference and no official declaration attached to such meetings, but in politics, a closed-door meeting between influential figures can sometimes say more than a rally.
Religion will also become a weapon in the campaign.
The opposition could argue that Christians have effectively occupied the governorship for eight years and that political rotation should now favour Muslims. That argument becomes more potent because several prominent opposition figures are Muslims, including APC candidate Senator Sarafadeen Alli, ADC’s Adegoke and Accord’s Oriyomi Hamzat. Alli has already been formally unveiled as the APC candidate, while Hamzat declared his governorship ambition under Accord.
Finally, the most dangerous problem for any political machine is not necessarily the opposition outside—it is the people who once operated inside it.
Fatai Owoseni, formerly one of Makinde’s key security advisers, resigned and entered the Accord governorship contest. Other political actors associated with the wider PDP/APM structure have also repositioned themselves ahead of 2027.
So, the real question is no longer whether APM has a structure.
It does.
The question is whether that structure can remain united long enough to convert its current political advantage into an electoral victory.
The pendulum is moving. And in Oyo politics, 2027 may ultimately be decided not by who shouts the loudest, but by who survives the cracks inside their own house.
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