Nigeria’s political history appears to be repeating itself in an interesting way.
Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State is increasingly playing a role that bears striking similarities to the position occupied by then-Lagos State Governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the years leading up to the 2007 general elections.
In 2006, Tinubu was one of the most prominent governors openly challenging the policies and political influence of the Peoples Democratic Party-led Federal Government under President Olusegun Obasanjo. As governor of Lagos and a leading opposition figure, Tinubu frequently confronted the Federal Government over issues ranging from the control of local government funds to the broader question of the autonomy and constitutional powers of states.
That period produced one of the most consequential political battles between a state governor and a sitting Federal Government in Nigeria's Fourth Republic. The conflict between Tinubu and the Obasanjo administration became particularly intense over Lagos State's local government allocations, with the Federal Government withholding funds allocated to the state. The confrontation eventually became part of the larger political struggle between the ruling PDP and the opposition in the run-up to the 2007 elections.
Fast-forward about two decades, and another South-West governor appears to be occupying a similarly prominent position in opposition politics.
Seyi Makinde has emerged as one of the most outspoken governors challenging the direction of the current APC-led Federal Government. His criticisms have increasingly extended beyond Oyo State politics into national issues, including the state of democracy, the strength of opposition parties and the possibility of Nigeria drifting towards a one-party political system.
Makinde's political positioning became even more significant after he formally declared his intention to contest the 2027 presidential election. In May 2026, he announced his presidential ambition at a PDP–APM alliance rally in Ibadan and subsequently emerged as the presidential candidate of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM).
This is where the comparison with Tinubu becomes particularly fascinating.
The major difference is that Makinde is not merely opposing the Federal Government from the sidelines — he is now directly positioning himself on the presidential ballot.
Tinubu's political battle with the PDP-led Federal Government in 2006 was primarily about defending Lagos and strengthening the opposition's political space. At the time, he was not preparing to contest the presidency in the 2007 election. Nigeria's political calculations were also heavily influenced by the prevailing expectation that the presidency would remain in the North after Obasanjo's tenure.
Makinde, however, is approaching the 2027 contest from an entirely different political position. He is an incumbent governor, an opposition voice and now a presidential candidate seeking to challenge President Bola Ahmed Tinubu himself.
That makes the political symbolism difficult to ignore.
Makinde has repeatedly argued that Nigeria needs a strong opposition capable of preventing the emergence of a dominant one-party system. His position has also placed him at the centre of ongoing attempts to reorganise Nigeria's fragmented opposition ahead of 2027.
Whether Makinde can transform his outspoken opposition into a genuinely nationwide presidential movement remains a different question. The opposition remains divided, with several political parties and presidential aspirants pursuing different strategies for 2027. Recent developments have demonstrated how difficult it may be for the opposition to unite behind a single candidate.
Nevertheless, the historical parallel is compelling.
Twenty years ago, Tinubu was one of the governors standing firmly against a powerful PDP Federal Government. Today, Makinde appears to be assuming a similar role against an APC administration — only this time, the opposition governor has placed himself directly in the presidential contest.
History may not be repeating itself exactly, but Nigerian politics certainly seems to be producing a familiar script with different actors — and the biggest question is whether Makinde can achieve at the national level what Tinubu achieved politically from Lagos.
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