OYO 2027: MAKINDE HAS SEEN THIS MOVIE BEFORE! AJIMOBI SURVIVED A CABINET EXODUS IN 2014 AND MADE HISTORY — WILL THE OLD POLITICAL GUARD REPEAT THE SAME MISTAKE?
The recent wave of resignations from the Seyi Makinde-led administration has generated considerable political noise, celebrations in certain quarters and, perhaps, premature optimism among opposition politicians. But for those familiar with the history and dynamics of Oyo State politics, there is an important question to ask: Have we not seen this political drama before?
This is not entirely new. In many respects, it is history repeating itself.
To understand the unfolding political developments, we must return to 2014, when former Governor Abiola Ajimobi, then serving his first term (2011–2015), experienced what was widely described at the time as one of the biggest waves of political resignations and defections in Oyo State's history.
His administration witnessed the departure of several influential political figures, including members of the State Executive Council and other prominent government officials.
Among those reported to have left or disengaged from the administration were:
1. Senator Sarafadeen Alli – Former Secretary to the State Government and Chairman of Odu'a Investment Company.
2. Barrister Lowo Obisesan – Former Commissioner for Environment and Habitat.
3. Barrister Sunbo Owolabi – Former Commissioner for Water Resources.
4. Hon. Peter Odetomi – Former Commissioner for Agriculture, Natural Resources and Rural Development.
5. Hon. Kazeem Adedeji – Former Commissioner for Commerce and Industry.
6. Hon. Nurudeen Akinyo – Former Special Adviser on Local Government Affairs.
7. Hon. Dapo Lam-Adesina – Former Commissioner for Youth and Sports, who left to pursue a legislative ambition.
8. Mr Mudashiru Abdulganiyu, popularly known as Muda Ganiyu – Former Commissioner for Special Duties, who announced his resignation in 2014.
The political crisis was not restricted to the state cabinet. Two prominent federal lawmakers elected on the platform of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), which subsequently became part of the APC, also moved to other political parties.
They included Senator Ayoade Adeseun of Oyo Central, who defected to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Senator Olufemi Lanlehin of Oyo South, who moved to Accord.
In December 2014, The Street Journal reported that seven serving commissioners had concluded plans to abandon Ajimobi's cabinet and join the Labour Party at a mega political rally in Ibadan.
The political atmosphere was charged. Opposition figures sensed an opportunity, commentators questioned Ajimobi's chances of survival, and some political observers were already writing the political obituary of his administration.
But what happened next?
Despite the high-profile departures, political realignments and widespread predictions of electoral defeat, Ajimobi went ahead to win the 2015 governorship election.
He consequently made history as the first governor in Oyo State to secure a second consecutive term in office.
The lesson is straightforward: political resignations do not automatically translate into electoral defeat. The departure of influential politicians may generate headlines, but elections are ultimately decided by voters, their interests, their experiences and their choices at the ballot box.
THE OSUN EXAMPLE: POLITICAL HEAVYWEIGHTS ARE NOT THE ELECTORATE
More recently, Osun State provided another important lesson in electoral politics.
Ahead of the August 15, 2026 governorship election, Governor Ademola Adeleke faced formidable opposition from an established political structure backed by influential political figures. There were extensive political manoeuvres, defections and high-profile campaigns against his continued leadership.
Yet, when the people eventually spoke, Adeleke emerged victorious.
According to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Adeleke, contesting on the platform of the Accord Party, polled 511,067 votes against the APC candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, who secured 444,815 votes. Adeleke won in 19 of Osun's 30 local government areas and secured another four-year mandate. TheCable +2
The message from Osun is clear: political endorsements, powerful alliances, defections and the movement of prominent politicians cannot independently determine electoral outcomes.
Ultimately, the electorate has the final say.
OYO 2027: THE OLD POLITICAL GUARD VERSUS A NEW GENERATION
Today, a similar political atmosphere appears to be developing in Oyo State.
The recent departures from Makinde's government, including those of Chief of Staff Segun Ogunwuyi, Commissioner Ayobami Ojo, Special Adviser Simeon Oyeleke and other political appointees, have intensified conversations about the state's emerging political alignments ahead of 2027.
But beyond the resignations lies a much bigger political contest.
It is increasingly becoming a battle between the established political class, particularly influential figures whose political roots and influence date back to the 1999–2003 era, and a younger generation of political actors seeking to redefine the state's political future.
The question is whether the traditional political establishment can successfully consolidate its influence against a political structure that has enjoyed electoral victories under a younger leadership.
Will the old political guard succeed in bringing together its networks, experience, resources and political machinery to determine the direction of Oyo politics? Or will the electorate once again demonstrate that political influence and electoral popularity are two different things?
IS 2027 A REMATCH OF 2023?
My submission is that the 2027 political contest in Oyo State will be much bigger than the current wave of resignations suggests.
It will be a test of political relevance, grassroots acceptance, generational transition and the ability of established politicians to translate their influence into actual votes.
Strictly speaking, Makinde cannot seek a third consecutive governorship term. The real contest will therefore revolve around his preferred political succession, the strength of his political camp and the ability of established opposition figures to take control of the state's political direction.
The 2023 election demonstrated that Makinde's political structure could withstand formidable opposition. The question now is whether that structure can survive the emerging realignments and reproduce its electoral success in 2027.
One thing is certain: Oyo State is not new to political surprises.
Ajimobi experienced a cabinet exodus and still won re-election. Adeleke faced formidable political opposition in Osun and still secured another mandate.
So, before anyone begins celebrating political resignations as electoral victories, perhaps we should remember that politicians do not vote themselves into government.
The people do.
2027 is approaching. Who will have the last laugh in Oyo State?
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