Something interesting is happening within the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Oyo State ahead of the 2027 general elections, and the political signals deserve closer examination.
Senator Sharafadeen Alli may be the party's governorship candidate, but recent political engagements, public appearances and campaign activities are raising questions about whether the influential stakeholders who should be building his political momentum are more concerned about President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's re-election.
Even Senator Teslim Folarin's latest public statement provides an interesting starting point.
Folarin disclosed that he held a strategic meeting with former Oyo State First Lady and Nigeria's Ambassador to Austria, Her Excellency Dr. Florence Ajimobi; Senator Abdulfatai Buhari representing Oyo North; former Minister of Power, Chief Adebayo Adelabu, OFR; and Barrister Akeem Agbaje.
According to him, discussions centred on genuine reconciliation, inclusive leadership and collective efforts to reorganise, reposition and strengthen the APC ahead of the 2027 general elections.
He concluded by expressing their commitment to building a united, stronger and more formidable APC.
Interestingly, Senator Sharafadeen Alli, the party's governorship candidate, was not mentioned in the list of participants or in the specific message announcing the meeting.
One might ask: Is the bigger political calculation now about securing Tinubu's second term, with the Oyo governorship election left to take care of itself?
IS THE OSUN EXPERIENCE REPLAYING ITSELF IN OYO?
From what I have observed, the political treatment that characterised the APC's internal struggles in Osun appears to be raising similar concerns in Oyo.
It is becoming difficult to ignore the impression that some of the established political heavyweights in Oyo APC are increasingly directing their attention towards the presidential project rather than visibly consolidating support around Senator Alli.
Today, I came across billboards featuring the BoyeNation boss and Seyi Tinubu, with Hon. Abimbola Adekanmbi boldly and prominently positioned by the side. Behind them was another billboard expressing BoyeNation's support for the APC presidential ticket.
I stopped to consider the political message.
Is this the bigger picture?
Are the presidential campaign structures gradually taking centre stage while the governorship contest is being placed on autopilot, left to its fate and ultimately to the people of Oyo State?
The concern becomes more interesting when one considers the reported absence of Senator Teslim Folarin and Chief Bayo Adelabu from the Oyo APC manifesto presentation for Senator Alli, even as both personalities have featured in other political engagements.
The question is not whether these leaders have the right to pursue the presidential project. They certainly do. The question is whether the same energy, influence, visibility and political resources being deployed towards Tinubu's re-election will also be committed to securing the APC governorship victory in Oyo.
THE FEAR OF A NEW POWER CENTRE?
There is another dimension to this political calculation.
Could the established political leaders be uncomfortable with the emergence of a new leadership structure that might eventually redefine the balance of power within Oyo APC?
An Alli governorship victory would potentially create a new political centre in the state, with its own influence over appointments, party administration, political patronage and future electoral calculations.
For politicians who have occupied influential positions within the party for years, the emergence of a governor with an independent political structure could mean a significant redistribution of power.
Perhaps this explains why some established political interests may be reluctant to surrender their existing leadership space to an emerging political authority.
These are political interpretations, not proof of an organised conspiracy. But they are questions that deserve answers.
ALL POLITICS IS LOCAL!
Interestingly, Alli has already unveiled his Oyo AHEAD development blueprint, promising local government autonomy, a ₦10 billion youth fund, improvements in education, healthcare, infrastructure, agriculture and security, as well as an ambitious ₦150 billion annual internally generated revenue target.
These commitments require more than manifesto presentations. They require a united party, serious political mobilisation and the collective commitment of influential stakeholders.
To be fair, The PUNCH reported on November 5 that Folarin subsequently convened an APC stakeholders' meeting in Ibadan, where participants reportedly agreed to work towards both Tinubu's re-election and Alli's governorship victory. This is an important development, although political commitments must ultimately translate into action.
My concern remains: Oyo APC cannot afford to treat its governorship ambition as secondary to its presidential project.
Tinubu needs Oyo State, but so does Senator Sharafadeen Alli.
The presidential election is important, but the governorship election is equally important to the political future of Oyo State.
And for those who may have forgotten, all politics is local.
The question is simple: Are Oyo APC's political big boys genuinely prepared to make Alli governor, or are they more interested in protecting their existing political territories while pursuing Tinubu's second-term ambition?
2027 will provide the answer.
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