Introduction: Why Perception Defines Politics in Oyo State
In politics, goodwill and reputation often outweigh resumes and achievements. Across Nigeria, political figures rise and fall not only by their accomplishments in office but by how they are perceived in their communities. In Oyo State, this truth has become a recurring theme, with Adebayo “Bayo” Adelabu serving as a prime case study of how overestimated social capital can collapse when tested against the will of the people.
The recently concluded Ibadan North by-election (August 2025) has once again thrown Adelabu’s political relevance into question, exposing weaknesses that go beyond party structures and cut into the very fabric of public trust and grassroots politics.
1. The Rise: From Banking Hall to Political Spotlight
Adelabu first gained national prominence as Deputy Governor (Operations) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)—a role he clinched through powerful patronage, notably the late business mogul Arisekola Alao, and political influence in Abuja during a PDP-led federal administration.
His technocratic pedigree, coupled with his family’s political legacy (he is the grandson of the fiery First Republic politician, Adegoke “Penkelemesi” Adelabu), made him a candidate to watch.
When the APC leadership under Bourdillon’s influence handed him the gubernatorial ticket in 2019, supported by the then-incumbent governor Abiola Ajimobi, expectations were high. Yet, despite the state machinery behind him, he lost to Seyi Makinde of the PDP, a political “underdog” at the time.
That loss revealed something deeper: political structure and elite backing cannot replace grassroots connection.
2. The “Frugality” Factor: Street Perceptions That Hurt
Politics in Oyo thrives on generosity, accessibility, and the aura of being “for the people.” Adelabu, despite his business acumen, is widely tagged by many street observers as stingy.
This perception came to the fore during his 2019 campaign rallies where, according to witnesses, he allegedly shouted at women supporters demanding financial support. What should have been moments to consolidate loyalty turned into episodes that painted him as detached, arrogant, or indifferent to grassroots realities.
In a state where political philanthropy plays a central role in building loyalty, Adelabu’s perceived miserliness has become a recurring liability.
3. The LAUTECH Crisis: A Defining Moment He Missed
During the 2019 election season, one of the hottest issues in Oyo politics was the prolonged strike at LAUTECH (Ladoke Akintola University of Technology). Students protested as the institution remained shut for months under Governor Ajimobi’s watch.
Instead of empathy, Ajimobi’s government responded with insults and hostility, leaving students and parents bitter. When alumni turned to fundraising to salvage the school, Seyi Makinde—then still underestimated—emerged as the single highest donor.
By contrast, Adelabu contributed nothing, further cementing the image that he lacked empathy and interest in public welfare. That contrast arguably shifted public opinion in Makinde’s favor and proved decisive in the 2019 gubernatorial outcome.
4. Business Failures and Image of Poor Management
Adelabu is also associated with several hospitality businesses in Ibadan. However, far from being models of success, many of these hotels are perceived to be poorly managed, under-maintained, and in some cases dilapidated or shut down.
For a man seeking to govern Oyo, this narrative of struggling to manage private enterprise effectively undermines his claim to be capable of managing the complexities of a diverse state. It reinforces doubts about his leadership and people-management abilities.
5. APC Internal Battles: The By-Election Debacle of 2025
The Ibadan North Federal Constituency by-election (August 2025) exposed the internal fractures of Oyo APC and Adelabu’s divisive role.
Adelabu was accused of imposing Adewale “Murphy” Olatunji as APC’s candidate, sidelining other aspirants and alienating critical stakeholders (Vanguard).
Aggrieved aspirants warned that Adelabu’s actions could cost APC the seat—and they were right (ThisDay).
Despite efforts to reconcile, the party went into the by-election divided and weakened (Daily Post).
The result? A PDP landslide:
PDP candidate Folajimi Oyekunle (DoN): 18,404 votes
APC candidate Adewale Olatunji: 8,312 votes
PDP won all 12 wards in Ibadan North (Guardian, InsideOyo).
This wasn’t just a defeat—it was a humiliation, signaling that Adelabu’s influence in Oyo is lighter than assumed.
6. Seyi Makinde’s Shadow: The Real Power in Oyo
One cannot discuss Adelabu’s chances without acknowledging Governor Seyi Makinde’s dominance.
Makinde has not only consolidated power within the PDP but has also built unprecedented goodwill through workers’ welfare policies, infrastructure projects, and consistent grassroots engagement. He remains the state’s kingmaker heading into 2027.
Unlike Adelabu, who is often accused of elitism, Makinde is viewed as approachable and relatable, giving him leverage over succession politics.
For Adelabu, this means that even if the APC unites behind him, he faces an uphill battle against a PDP machine backed by Makinde’s towering influence.
7. Reputation vs. Reality: Why Adelabu May Fail Again
Considering all factors—
Perceptions of stinginess and arrogance
Failure to show empathy during LAUTECH crisis
Struggling hospitality businesses that raise questions on his managerial skills
Divisive politics within APC leading to electoral disasters
Lack of strong political godfathers after Ajimobi and Alao-Akala’s deaths
Makinde’s enduring popularity
…it becomes clear why many political watchers believe Adelabu is unlikely to succeed in 2027.
His ministerial achievements in the power sector (including record 6,003MW generation capacity under his watch) may win Abuja’s applause, but in Oyo politics, street credibility, generosity, and empathy trump technocratic credentials.
Conclusion: The Urgent Need for a Perception Overhaul
For Adelabu to remain competitive in 2027, he must urgently bridge the perception gap. It is not enough to command federal appointments or boast of financial prudence. Oyo people want leaders who can connect, empathize, and give back.
The Ibadan North by-election was not just a local defeat—it was a referendum on Adelabu’s political weight. If he cannot shift how ordinary people view him, he risks being remembered as a perennial aspirant who never quite became “the people’s candidate.”
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