Governor Seyi Makinde continues to demonstrate remarkable political strength in Ibadan North Local Government Area, a cornerstone of his electoral base. In the 2019 gubernatorial election, Makinde secured 40,785 votes in Ibadan North—an unmatched figure in the history of Oyo State gubernatorial contests .
He built on this dominance during his reelection in 2023, capturing an even more commanding 39,658 votes in Ibadan North LGA, further solidifying his deep-rooted appeal .
These numbers underscore an electoral record-breaking advantage in the local government, positioning Makinde as a major political force to be reckoned with in the state.
Folajimi Don's Strategic Advantage
As the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) rallies behind Folajimi Don for the upcoming August 16 by-election, he stands to benefit greatly from Makinde’s towering political capital in Ibadan North LGA. With a foundation of proven voter loyalty, Don can leverage Makinde’s endorsement and infrastructure to galvanize grassroots support and mobilize a surge at polling booths.
Olawale Murphy: Not to Be Underestimated
But the battle won’t be one-sided. Olawale Murphy, boasting decades of political experience dating back to 2003, remains a formidable contender. His long-established local presence and recognized track record give him reliable standing within the community.
Murphy’s credentials and tenure make him arguably the most qualified APC candidate, challenging any notion of top-down imposition. His grassroots credibility and history in local governance may inject real competitive tension into what could otherwise be a predictable landslide.
By-Election Outlook: A High-Stakes Contest
The August 16 by-election in Ibadan North promises to be a high-stakes duel between institutional incumbency and seasoned opposition. On paper, Folajimi Don benefits from Makinde’s established voter base. Yet Murphy’s entrenched experience and local roots could temper the PDP’s expected dominance.
Observers should brace for an intense political duel—one where mobilization, ground strategy, and historical loyalty will clash head-on. It marks not just a contest for a local seat but a potential bellwether for shifting allegiances in Oyo State.
Here are the stakes;
Makinde’s Vote in Ibadan North LGA (2019) 40,785 votes
Makinde’s Vote in Ibadan North LGA (2023) 39,658 votes
Folajimi Don’s Advantage Endorsement from Makinde, local loyalty network
Murphy’s Strength and Political experience since 2003, credible local stature
Forecast Highly competitive by-election, not a foregone conclusion
As the campaign intensifies, attention should focus on voter turnout trajectories, mobilization efficiency, and how each candidate courts undecided and swing voters. The outcome could reveal much about Ibadan’s evolving political landscape—whether Makinde’s influence endures or Murphy’s resilience reshapes local allegiance.
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