How an Oke Ogun Indigene Could Emerge as the Next Governor of Oyo State
The political terrain of Oyo State is gradually shifting, and if you pay attention closely, you’ll see signs of a strategic recalibration at play. Governor Seyi Makinde’s political body language in recent years has sparked discussions across the state’s political spectrum: is he subtly paving the way for an Oke Ogun indigene to succeed him in 2027?
For decades, Oyo State’s governorship has been largely dominated by Ibadan indigenes, a pattern that reflects the city’s demographic strength and political weight. Yet, history shows that while Ibadan may control the numbers, it does not always act as a united bloc. This fragmentation could open the door for an outsider — specifically, an Oke Ogun candidate — if the political chessboard is carefully arranged.
The Numbers and Voting Patterns
Oyo State’s electoral map is structured around its five geo-political zones:
Ibadan (largest population, most voting power)
Oke Ogun (second-largest voting population)
Oyo
Ogbomoso
Ibarapa
Ibadan undeniably wields the largest share of votes, often seen as the kingmaker zone. However, Ibadan’s diversity dilutes its dominance. Not all Ibadan voters are indigenes — the city hosts a large migrant population from other zones and even other states, which makes its bloc less monolithic than often assumed.
In contrast, Oke Ogun has consistently shown bloc loyalty when their son or daughter is in contention. Though smaller than Ibadan, Oke Ogun votes carry significant weight, especially when aligned with one of the state’s two major parties.
Makinde’s Strategy: Reading Between the Lines
Governor Seyi Makinde, himself an Ibadan indigene, has enjoyed strong cross-zone support during his tenure. However, his recent moves suggest that he might be eyeing legacy politics — ensuring equity and inclusivity by supporting an Oke Ogun candidate.
Why does this matter? Because a sitting governor’s backing, combined with the full weight of the PDP structure in Oyo State, can make or break an aspirant’s chances. PDP remains deeply entrenched across the grassroots, and in a state where structure often matters more than personality, this could be decisive.
But Makinde isn’t naïve. He understands Ibadan’s sensitivity. To balance the ticket, the most probable strategy would be:
Oke Ogun Governorship candidate (PDP)
Strong Ibadan Deputy Governor
This arrangement softens the blow for Ibadan elites while still advancing equity for Oke Ogun.
The Ibadan Split: A Blessing for Oke Ogun
The biggest advantage for an Oke Ogun candidate lies in Ibadan’s perennial inability to unite behind one candidate.
Adebayo Adelabu (Accord Party/possibly APC in 2027) – A strong Ibadan technocrat-politician with deep grassroots connections.
Teslim Folarin (APC stalwart) – A heavyweight who still commands significant loyalty within Ibadan politics.
Other Ibadan aspirants will also throw their hats into the ring, further splintering the city’s voting strength.
If three or more Ibadan candidates contest simultaneously, their votes will naturally fragment. This opens a clear path for a united Oke Ogun bloc candidate, especially if backed by PDP’s formidable structure.
Oke Ogun’s Case for 2027
Oke Ogun, long regarded as the “food basket” of Oyo State, has never produced a governor. This has created a sense of political marginalization in the zone. With rising agitation for equity, Makinde’s support could finally tilt the balance.
The argument is simple: Ibadan has had its turn repeatedly, Oyo and Ogbomoso have also tasted governorship — isn’t it time for Oke Ogun?
If the PDP embraces this sentiment and rallies around one strong Oke Ogun candidate, the momentum could become unstoppable.
Possible Scenarios
1. PDP fields an Oke Ogun candidate with Makinde’s endorsement:
A strong Ibadan deputy is announced.
Ibadan candidates in APC, Accord, and smaller parties divide their votes.
PDP consolidates Oke Ogun, Ibarapa, and significant portions of Ogbomoso/Oyo votes.
Outcome: High probability of victory.
2. PDP fields another Ibadan candidate:
Risk of Ibadan voter fatigue.
Oke Ogun may swing to the opposition.
Outcome: A more fragmented and unpredictable election.
Final Analysis
The road to Agodi in 2027 may not be as Ibadan-centric as history suggests. With Makinde’s tacit support, PDP’s grassroots machinery, and Ibadan’s chronic vote-splitting, an Oke Ogun indigene has the clearest shot yet at becoming the next governor of Oyo State.
What was once considered politically impossible now looks increasingly plausible. If Governor Makinde plays his cards right, his legacy might not only be about his own achievements in office but also about breaking the long-standing monopoly and finally giving Oke Ogun its rightful place in Oyo’s political history.
0 Comments