In a stark illustration of Nigeria’s deepening cost-of-living crisis, a Lagos resident’s recent experiment has brought national attention to the staggering surge in food prices over the past six years. What started as a simple grocery price comparison has become a powerful snapshot of how inflation, currency devaluation, policy shifts and global disruptions have combined to erode household purchasing power across Nigeria.
From ₦25,225 in 2020 to ₦147,050 in 2026: The Grocery Comparison That Shocked the Nation
In March 2020, Olabode Ifeanyi purchased 33 common household food items — including canned sardines, Pringles, yogurts, and chicken — from Shoprite for a total of ₦25,225. Recently, he decided to replicate that same shopping list at Renee Supermarket in Lekki, a store widely regarded as one of Lagos’ more affordable retail options. The result? The exact same basket cost a jaw-dropping ₦147,050 in 2026 — a 483% increase compared to prices six years ago.
The comparison sparked debate across social media and news platforms about whether ordinary Nigerians are being priced out of basic necessities. Ifeanyi’s demonstration also revealed a broader economic reality: inflation and rising costs are outpacing wage growth, leaving millions struggling to make ends meet.
Why This Matters: Nigeria’s Inflation Landscape
Nigeria’s inflation story is complicated. Official figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that headline inflation has been easing in recent months. As of December 2025, annual food inflation slowed to 10.84%, down from much higher rates in previous years.
However, lower inflation percentages do not necessarily translate to lower prices for consumers. A slowing inflation rate means prices are rising more slowly, not that prices have dropped or returned to earlier levels. Most Nigerians still pay significantly more for food today than they did years ago.
Indeed, headline inflation figures often mask the persistent reality that everyday essentials — particularly food — remain expensive for households with limited budgets, especially in urban centers like Lagos.
What’s Driving the Price Explosion? Key Economic Forces
Several major economic factors have contributed to the sharp escalation in food prices since 2020:
🔹 Naira Devaluation and Foreign Exchange Volatility
Currency devaluation has been one of the most significant drivers of higher food and consumer prices. Following major policy changes and the removal of strict currency controls, the naira lost substantial value against the U.S. dollar. This directly affects import costs for goods and inputs — including food items, packaging materials, and agricultural inputs manufactured abroad.
A weaker naira also makes fuel imports more expensive, which in turn raises logistics and transportation costs — pushing up prices along the entire supply chain.
🔹 Fuel Subsidy Removal and Rising Transportation Costs
In 2023, the federal government’s removal of fuel subsidies triggered sharp increases in petrol prices. While the policy was intended to reduce government expenditure and promote economic reform, it initially had the unintended consequence of increasing transportation and logistics costs for farmers and distributors alike. These additional costs were passed on to consumers at the market level.
🔹 Global Supply Shocks and COVID-19 Aftereffects
The COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions, and global events such as the Russia–Ukraine conflict have had lingering effects on global food markets. Lockdowns and changes in production patterns disrupted agricultural output and supply lines, leading to shortages that put upward pressure on prices.
In Nigeria, where a large proportion of food staples and inputs are imported or rely on imported inputs, these global shocks exacerbated domestic price pressures.
🔹 Inflationary Trends in Local Markets
Across major Nigerian markets, staple food items have shown persistent price volatility. Surveys in Lagos markets throughout 2025 recorded fluctuating prices for staples such as onions, rice, beans, and oils — reflecting both supply challenges and rising costs of transportation and storage.
Wages vs Prices: A Growing Disconnect
One of the most painful realities for average Nigerians is the widening gap between income and living costs. For many households, wages and salaries have not increased anywhere close to the pace of inflation and price rises. This means that even when inflation rates taper off, the real incomes of millions remain squeezed, making it harder to afford basic food items.
While headline inflation has shown some moderation and even temporary deflation in food prices in certain months, the overall price level remains significantly elevated compared to previous years. For families living on fixed or low incomes, this scenario translates into reduced food security, compromised nutrition choices, and increased financial stress.
Public Reaction: Crisis, Resilience, and Civic Outcry
Across social media and public discourse, reactions to the grocery price comparison ranged from shock to frustration. Many Nigerians pointed out that paying more for less has become the norm, while others highlighted the broader economic pressures impacting everyday life.
In some instances, Ifeanyi’s gesture — offering the purchased goods for free amid rising hardship — was hailed as a sense-giving act of solidarity toward households struggling to keep up with rising costs.
Official Data vs Everyday Reality: The Inflation Paradox
While government figures indicate a downward trend in headline inflation, experts caution that the statistics should be interpreted carefully. Recent revisions to the inflation calculation method — including rebasing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — have influenced reported rates and could temporarily distort year-on-year comparisons.
Moreover, even if inflation percentages decrease, the baseline prices — such as the cost of a basic grocery basket — may remain high relative to average incomes, creating a disconnect between economic indicators and lived experiences.
What This Means for Nigerian Households
For millions of Nigerians, inflation is not just a percentage — it’s a daily reality that affects what they can buy, how much they spend, and the quality of food they can afford. Some of the key implications include:
📉 Reduced purchasing power for families on fixed or low wages
🍲 Compromised food security, especially among vulnerable groups
💸 Rising share of income spent on essentials, leaving less for healthcare, education, and savings
📊 Greater reliance on informal markets, where prices may be more volatile but accessible
Conclusion: Beyond Headlines — Understanding Nigeria’s Cost-of-Living Crisis
The extraordinary food price surge highlighted by one man’s grocery comparison is more than just a viral social media moment — it reflects deeply rooted structural challenges in Nigeria’s economy. From currency volatility and fiscal reforms to global supply chain disruptions and inflation dynamics, multiple forces have converged to create one of the most severe cost-of-living pressures in recent memory.
While official data shows some moderation in headline inflation, the everyday reality for many Nigerians remains stark: the cost of feeding a family today is dramatically higher than it was six years ago, and wages have struggled to keep up.
For policymakers, economists, and everyday citizens alike, this reality underscores the urgent need for policies that protect vulnerable households, stabilize prices, promote local production, and create pathways for sustainable economic growth.
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