In moments of national tension, silence is rarely neutral. It is either fear disguised as prudence or complicity masquerading as patience. History has repeatedly shown that when patterns emerge and questions are suppressed, societies drift toward dangerous absolutes. It is within this context that a controversial but unavoidable question continues to echo across Nigeria’s political landscape:
Is President Bola Ahmed Tinubu quietly reordering power in a way that systematically weakens the Muslim North—or are Nigerians merely witnessing a remarkable chain of coincidences?
This question is not new. What is new is the ferocity with which it has been resisted.
The initial inquiry did not provoke debate or evidence-based rebuttal. Instead, it triggered insults, threats, accusations of paranoia, and even calls for arrest and physical harm against those asking it. When questions invite intimidation rather than answers, the issue ceases to be personal—it becomes national.
This article revisits that question, not emotionally, but empirically. And upon closer inspection, it becomes evident that the number of unanswered questions has grown—not diminished.
The Central Question, Reframed
If this is coincidence, it is a deeply disciplined one.
Why do power, proximity to the centre, and institutional authority appear to be drifting consistently away from the same demographic bloc?
Why do media narratives around terrorism financing and corruption disproportionately spotlight Northern Muslim elites, often without judicial closure?
Why are institutions, regulatory authority, and economic command centres consolidating in one region, while insecurity, displacement, and political exposure intensify in another?
These are not accusations. They are observations—observable trends demanding explanation.
Power First: Tracking the Political Displacements
Power rarely disappears overnight. It erodes incrementally, often under the banner of reform or restructuring. Over the last political cycle, several notable shifts have followed a strikingly similar pattern:
Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, a Muslim Northerner and former APC National Chairman, exited his position. His replacement, Nentawe Goshwe Yilwatda, is a Northern Christian.
The electoral nerve centre, long associated with Mahmood Yakubu, a Northern Muslim, transitioned toward Joash Amupitan, another Northern Christian figure.
During a period of intense national insecurity, the Defence Ministry changed hands. Mohammed Badaru Abubakar, a Muslim Northerner, was replaced by General Christopher Musa, a Northern Christian.
Senate security oversight committees were reshuffled, with Muslim Northern leadership removed.
Perhaps most politically sensitive are ongoing elite conversations about replacing Vice President Kashim Shettima—a Muslim Northerner—with a Northern Christian ahead of the 2027 elections.
Individually, each move can be justified. Collectively, they form a directional pattern.
The question is not whether replacements are legal or constitutional—but whether all major exits pointing in one direction can reasonably be dismissed as random.
Exposure Without Closure: Media Accusations and Lingering Shadows
Beyond political displacement lies another trend: persistent public accusations without judicial resolution.
Several high-profile Northern Muslim figures have faced repeated media allegations related to terrorism financing or corruption:
Tukur Yusuf Buratai
Faruk Yahaya
Abubakar Malami, currently under EFCC investigation, with details still emerging
It must be emphasized: accusation is not conviction. Yet the reputational damage is immediate and often irreversible. What deepens concern is the selectivity of exposure.
Comparable allegations involving other regions or religious blocs often receive muted coverage or dissolve quietly without sustained scrutiny. This asymmetry fuels perceptions—not necessarily of guilt—but of unequal vulnerability.
Justice delayed is injustice. But justice selectively pursued is something worse.
Beyond Party Lines: When Loyalty No Longer Protects
This pattern does not stop at opposition figures or political rivals. It crosses party lines.
Prominent Northern Muslim politicians—regardless of past loyalty—have found themselves politically isolated or perpetually under investigation:
Nasir El-Rufai
Aminu Waziri Tambuwal
Others whose names circulate in investigative whispers without judicial finality
What emerges is a troubling narrative: political expendability is no longer tied to opposition status, but to identity and geography.
When investigations linger endlessly without closure, they function less as legal processes and more as political pressure points.
Institutions and Money: Following the Centre of Gravity
Power is not only political—it is institutional and economic.
In recent years, several federal agencies have either relocated headquarters or shifted operational authority toward Lagos, including:
Segments of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)
Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN)
Bank of Industry (BOI)
Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA)
NIMASA
Supporters argue efficiency and proximity to commerce. Critics argue systemic peripheralisation.
For a federation already strained by regional inequality, such centralisation raises legitimate questions:
What happens to national balance when economic command centres cluster geographically?
Insecurity as Political Consequence—or Coincidence?
While institutions consolidate elsewhere, the North continues to bleed.
Banditry, kidnappings, mass displacement, collapsed rural economies, and disrupted education systems persist. Entire communities live under siege, while electoral participation weakens under fear and instability.
The uncomfortable question follows:
Is prolonged insecurity merely a failure of governance—or does it also function as a political weakening mechanism?
When populations are displaced and survival becomes primary, political agency collapses. Votes disappear. Representation fades.
Correlation is not causation—but correlation ignored becomes negligence.
Selective Anti-Corruption: The Double Standard Question
Anti-corruption remains a popular political weapon. But its credibility depends on consistency.
Why do some scandals dominate headlines while others fade into obscurity?
Why are certain figures paraded, detained, or endlessly investigated, while other high-profile controversies end with silence or quiet reassignment?
Without even-handed enforcement, anti-corruption risks becoming selective justice—and selective justice erodes legitimacy.
The Final Question Nigeria Must Answer
This is not about religion versus religion. Nor North versus South.
It is about patterns versus denial.
If these trends continue—political displacement, media exposure without closure, institutional centralisation, and sustained insecurity—then a simple but unsettling question remains:
Who, exactly, is politically safe in the Muslim North if President Bola Ahmed Tinubu secures a second term in 2027?
Asking this question is not treason. It is civic duty.
History punishes societies that confuse uncomfortable questions with dangerous ones. Nigeria stands at a crossroads where silence may feel safer—but truth has always been louder in the long run.
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