In Nigeria’s complex political and economic landscape, few issues are as emotionally charged and economically consequential as electricity. Power supply is not just a utility matter; it is the backbone of industrial productivity, small business survival, job creation, and national competitiveness. Therefore, when President Bola Ahmed Tinubu stakes his re-election prospects on improving Nigeria’s power sector—and appoints Adebayo Adelabu to deliver that transformation—the implication is unmistakable: failure is not an option.
If the administration makes electricity reform a cornerstone of its political legitimacy, then the performance of the Minister of Power becomes inseparable from the President’s political fate. And if that mandate is not fulfilled by 2027, it inevitably raises hard questions—not just about federal governance, but about local political ambitions, including whether Chief Adelabu should even contemplate contesting the Oyo State governorship.
This debate is not merely partisan rhetoric. It is rooted in Nigeria’s decades-long struggle with unreliable electricity supply and the political symbolism attached to promises of reform.
Tinubu’s Political Capital and the Power Sector Bet
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, widely known by his political moniker “Jagaban of Borgu,” assumed office in May 2023 amid sweeping reformist expectations. His administration moved quickly on controversial but bold economic policies, including fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate unification. Yet beyond macroeconomic restructuring, everyday Nigerians continue to measure governance by tangible outcomes—none more immediate than stable electricity.
Electricity supply in Nigeria has historically averaged between 3,000 and 5,000 megawatts for a population exceeding 200 million. For comparison, South Africa—with a far smaller population—generates significantly more power capacity, despite its own well-documented grid challenges. Nigeria’s electricity deficit translates into billions of dollars spent annually on diesel and petrol generators, burdening households and crippling small and medium enterprises.
By placing electricity reform at the center of his administration’s performance benchmarks, Tinubu implicitly elevated the power sector into a referendum issue for 2027.
The Appointment of Adebayo Adelabu: A Strategic Signal
The choice of Adebayo Adelabu as Minister of Power was politically and strategically significant. A former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria and the All Progressives Congress (APC) governorship candidate in Oyo State in 2019 and 2023, Adelabu brought technocratic credentials and political ambition to the role.
His appointment signaled two things:
1. A trust in technocratic management of the sector, given his financial background.
2. A political bridge to Oyo State, where Adelabu remains a prominent political figure.
But that dual role also increases scrutiny. If electricity supply improves dramatically, Adelabu’s political stock rises. If it does not, critics will argue that his stewardship has undermined both federal credibility and his own future aspirations.
The Structural Reality: Reform Is Hard, But Promises Are Harder
To fairly assess the stakes, one must understand the structural challenges of Nigeria’s power sector. The 2013 privatization of the Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN) unbundled generation, transmission, and distribution into private entities. However, systemic inefficiencies persist:
Under-capitalized distribution companies (DisCos)
Aging transmission infrastructure
Liquidity crises across the value chain
Gas supply bottlenecks for thermal plants
Tariff and regulatory constraints
Agencies such as the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) have attempted to recalibrate tariffs and introduce cost-reflective frameworks. Yet political resistance to tariff increases complicates financial sustainability.
Still, political leadership is judged not by the difficulty of the terrain but by results. If the President stakes re-election on power sector reform, the electorate will not accept technical excuses in 2027.
“Let There Be Light”: Political Rhetoric vs. Governance Outcomes
Supporters of President Tinubu often portray him as a master strategist with an almost mythic capacity for political reinvention. The satirical imagery of him standing at the twilight of his first term and declaring, “Let there be light!” speaks to this perception of administrative bravado.
But governance is not magic. It is policy, investment, enforcement, and institutional coordination.
The transformation Nigerians desire would mean:
Sustained generation above 10,000 megawatts
Reduced grid collapses
Improved metering penetration
Lower reliance on generators
Enhanced industrial power access
Anything short of visible, measurable progress risks turning campaign bravado into opposition ammunition.
The NEPA/PHCN Legacy: A National Trauma
For decades, Nigerians have turned power sector frustration into humor. The former National Electric Power Authority (NEPA) was mockingly dubbed “Never Expect Power Always.” When it became the Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN), cynics quipped that the “Problem Has Changed Name.”
These jokes are not trivial. They represent collective disillusionment. Electricity failure is more than inconvenience—it shapes business costs, healthcare delivery, education outcomes, and foreign investment decisions.
For Tinubu’s administration to break that psychological cycle, improvement must be undeniable and sustained.
The Oyo State Angle: Adelabu’s Political Crossroads
In Oyo State, where politics remains intensely competitive, Chief Adelabu is already a known quantity. He contested the governorship twice. If he intends to run again, his performance at the federal level will be central to his credibility.
The argument is straightforward:
If the President tied his re-election to electricity reform,
And Adelabu was entrusted with delivering that reform,
Then failure reflects not just systemic inertia, but leadership shortcomings.
In such a scenario, opponents would likely argue that someone unable to deliver federal electricity reform should not seek executive leadership at the state level.
On the other hand, significant progress in the power sector could strengthen Adelabu’s claim to executive competence.
2027: A Referendum on Power?
Historically, Nigerian elections have revolved around regional alliances, party structures, and personality politics. But economic distress has shifted voter focus toward tangible governance outcomes.
Electricity sits at the intersection of economic revival and daily survival. Manufacturers cite power costs as a major obstacle. Startups and digital entrepreneurs depend on stable electricity. Hospitals and schools cannot function optimally without it.
If by 2027 Nigerians still rely predominantly on generators, the political consequences could be severe.
Performance Metrics That Will Define the Narrative
Between now and the next general election cycle, observers will likely track:
Grid stability statistics
Megawatt generation benchmarks
Transmission infrastructure expansion
DisCo metering coverage
Tariff reform transparency
Industrial cluster electrification initiatives
Improvements in these areas would bolster the administration’s narrative of reformist courage. Stagnation would embolden critics.
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The Political Cost of Overpromising
Political branding can inspire confidence, but it can also create vulnerability. By positioning electricity as a personal re-election metric, President Tinubu has narrowed the space for ambiguity. The electorate will expect proof.
In politics, bold declarations carry bold consequences. If the administration’s messaging suggests near-miraculous transformation, expectations escalate accordingly.
The danger lies not in ambition—but in unmet expectations.
Conclusion: Light as Legitimacy
Electricity is more than infrastructure; it is political legitimacy materialized. It powers homes, industries, hospitals, and hope.
If by 2027 Nigeria experiences stable, abundant electricity, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will have cemented a transformative legacy. If not, critics will argue that the wager failed—and that those entrusted with delivering reform, including Adebayo Adelabu, must bear political accountability.
The jokes about NEPA and PHCN will either fade into history—or resurface louder than ever.
The clock toward 2027 is ticking. And in Nigerian politics, nothing shines brighter—or exposes more sharply—than light.
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