Nigeria’s Power Promise Crisis: Tinubu’s Electricity Pledge vs. Relentless Grid Collapse
When President Bola Ahmed Tinubu campaigned in 2022, he offered a bold assurance to Nigerians: steady, reliable electricity within his first four years in office — or don’t vote for me for a second term. This pledge instantly became one of the defining commitments of his campaign, offering hope to millions of citizens and businesses long plagued by erratic power supply.
Yet as of January 2026, that promise remains unmet — even as the crises in Nigeria’s power sector deepen. Within the first few weeks of the year alone, the national electricity grid collapsed twice, contributing to yet another chapter in Nigeria’s longstanding electricity woes.
A Deeply Troubled Grid: Frequent Collapses and Rampant Outages
The narrative of Nigeria’s national grid is far darker than campaign slogans suggested. Rather than consistent improvements, the system continues to suffer frequent, wide-ranging failures:
In 2024, the national grid collapsed repeatedly — with reports indicating at least 11 to 12 major system collapses throughout the year.
Data from the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and energy analysts reveal that the country has endured over 100 grid collapses since privatisation in 2013 — a staggering tally underscoring chronic instability.
By contrast, grid collapses in developed power systems are rare and typically isolated, not national crises that plunge entire regions into darkness.
These collapses translate into real human and economic costs — widespread blackouts, disrupted businesses, and longer reliance on costly alternative power sources like diesel generators.
What Causes the Grid to Fail So Often?
To understand why the promise of steady electricity remains elusive, it helps to unpack the root causes of grid collapse. Power sector experts and regulatory authorities highlight several complex, systemic issues:
1. Inadequate Infrastructure and Aging Networks
Much of Nigeria’s grid infrastructure — transmission lines, substations, and transformers — was constructed decades ago. Many components are now over 40 years old, struggling to cope with the demand of a population exceeding 200 million.
Transmission lines designed for lower capacity are often overloaded, leading to automatic shutdowns or tripping. When critical lines fail, the cascading impact can trigger partial or complete grid collapse — leaving millions without electricity until restoration efforts can be mobilised.
2. Supply–Demand Imbalance
Nigeria’s power generation capacity — typically around 4,000 to 6,000 megawatts — is far below what the national grid and economy require. This capacity deficit means that electricity supply frequently cannot meet demand, contributing to instability and collapse.
Unlike grids in other countries where real-time balancing systems adjust generation instantly, Nigeria still relies on largely manual control processes, increasing the chances of imbalance and eventual failure.
3. Technical Limitations and Obsolete Control Systems
Experts like Engr. Stephen Ogaji, an industry analyst, point out that Nigeria’s grid often operates without advanced automation systems such as SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) that are standard in robust networks. Without real-time automated control, small disruptions can escalate into full collapses.
The Toll on Nigerians and the Economy
For everyday Nigerians — households, students, small businesses, and large industries — the consequences are far from abstract:
Millions report minimal grid supply, lasting only a few hours or none at all in a day. Despite the President’s promise, reliable 24/7 electricity remains a distant ideal.
Businesses struggle with the cost of self-generation. The reality is that most firms rely heavily on diesel or petrol generators, significantly increasing operating costs and reducing competitiveness.
Households endure frequent outages, ending up paying more for alternative power or adapting to unpredictable blackouts.
These conditions not only undermine economic growth but also dampen investor confidence — a core reason why a stable power supply was prioritised during political campaigns.
Political Backlash: Promises vs. Reality
President Tinubu’s pledge — steady electricity within four years or no second term — continues to be a political touchstone in the national discourse.
Opposition figures like Peter Obi have repeatedly invoked this promise to critique the administration’s performance. Obi highlighted that grid instability continued even as the President travelled abroad, saying the situation “sharply contradicts the promise” made in 2022.
Similarly, political parties like the African Democratic Congress (ADC) have criticised rising electricity tariffs alongside grid failures, pointing to minimal progress and calling for urgent action.
These critiques resonate widely because Nigerians across regions continue to feel the impact of unreliable electricity — especially as energy costs rise and public frustrations grow.
Government Responses and Sector Challenges
Officials have acknowledged the challenges, though solutions have been mixed:
Nigeria’s Minister of Power has stressed that there is no guarantee the grid won’t experience further collapses, citing deep-seated issues like vandalism, insecurity around key infrastructure, and underinvestment.
The government has also pushed reforms aimed at attracting private investment and increasing generation capacity, but the impacts of these remain gradual and not immediately felt by everyday users.
Tariff reforms and subsidy reductions, while intended to strengthen financial sustainability, have also been controversial — as they increase costs for power consumers without delivering commensurate reliability.
Is There a Path Forward?
Despite these challenges, several ideas are emerging as part of long-term reform discussions:
1. Infrastructure Modernisation
Upgrading grid infrastructure — especially critical transmission corridors and control systems — is essential. Investment is needed in new lines, substations, and intelligent automation systems that reduce human error and stabilise frequency and voltage.
2. Diversified Energy Portfolios
Decentralised energy solutions — such as solar mini-grids, battery storage, and independent power projects — are gaining traction. These alternatives can reduce reliance on the fragile national grid while improving access in underserved regions.
3. Policy and Regulatory Clarity
Strengthening the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and ensuring enforceable performance standards for generation and distribution companies can help align incentives toward delivery, not just headlines.
4. Tackling Non-Technical Losses
Addressing vandalism, theft, and insecurity around energy infrastructure can drastically reduce unplanned disruptions and improve overall grid stability.
Conclusion: Between Hope and Frustration
President Bola Tinubu’s campaign promise on electricity struck a chord with millions — after all, a reliable power supply is foundational to economic growth, job creation, and improved quality of life. Yet nearly three years into this administration, the stark contrast between political rhetoric and on-the-ground realities in the power sector has widened public frustration.
Repeated national grid collapses — occurring multiple times in 2024 and twice already in January 2026 — highlight the persistent systemic challenges within Nigeria’s power infrastructure. Despite efforts to reform and invest, frequent outages and unstable supply underscore how far the country still has to go before steady electricity becomes a reality.
For Nigerians, the hope remains that leadership, policy consistency, and investment — matched with transparent execution — could finally light the way toward reliable power. Until then, the promise made at the podium remains unfulfilled in the lives of millions still living without consistent electricity.
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