Nigeria’s Security in 2026: Safer Than 2016 or a Deepening National Crisis?
Ten years ago, in 2016, Nigeria stood at a significant political turning point. The All Progressives Congress (APC) had just taken over power at the federal level, with Muhammadu Buhari assuming office as President. At the time, the new administration made strong and categorical claims about improvements in national security, particularly in relation to the decade-long insurgency waged by Boko Haram.
According to official statements during the early years of the Buhari administration, Nigeria had become safer. Government representatives repeatedly asserted that Boko Haram had been “technically defeated,” arguing that the group no longer held significant territory in the North-East as it once did under the previous administration. Indeed, there was visible progress in reclaiming towns and local government areas that had previously fallen under insurgent control, where Boko Haram fighters had hoisted their flags and declared territorial dominance.
The narrative from the APC at the time was clear: bombing incidents had reduced, territorial occupation had been dismantled, and the military had regained strategic ground. For many Nigerians, these declarations provided cautious optimism that the country was emerging from one of its darkest security chapters.
However, while territorial control by Boko Haram diminished in certain areas, Nigeria’s broader security landscape did not stabilize in the way many had hoped. Instead, the country witnessed the emergence and expansion of new and evolving threats that complicated the security equation.
From Insurgency to Multi-Front Security Threats
One of the most controversial developments during the Buhari administration was the rise in violent attacks attributed to armed herdsmen and what many communities described as “Fulani terrorism.” Across states in the North-Central region—particularly Benue, Plateau, and parts of Kaduna—there were numerous reports of deadly clashes between herders and farming communities. These incidents often resulted in mass casualties, displacement of rural populations, and deepening ethnic and religious tensions.
Civil society organizations, international human rights groups, and local media consistently documented recurring attacks during Buhari’s two-term tenure. Entire villages were reportedly sacked, farmlands abandoned, and internally displaced persons (IDP) camps expanded. Critics argued that while the government focused heavily on Boko Haram, other violent actors gained ground and operated with alarming boldness.
In addition to herder-related violence, Nigeria faced the rapid escalation of banditry in the North-West. States such as Zamfara, Katsina, Sokoto, and Niger began experiencing large-scale kidnappings, mass abductions of schoolchildren, attacks on highways, and raids on rural communities. These armed bandits operated with increasing sophistication, often overwhelming local security structures.
Simultaneously, the insurgency itself evolved. A splinter faction known as the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) gained prominence. ISWAP, which emerged as a breakaway faction of Boko Haram aligned with the global Islamic State network, introduced new operational strategies and intensified attacks on both military and civilian targets in the Lake Chad Basin region.
It is worth noting that while Boko Haram had been active before 2016, ISWAP’s rise marked a strategic shift in the insurgency’s structure and tactics. The group became particularly active in Borno State and neighboring regions, complicating the counterinsurgency landscape.
Geographic Expansion of Insecurity
A critical dimension of the debate over Nigeria’s safety is the geographic spread of violent attacks. A decade ago, insecurity—particularly insurgency—was largely concentrated in the North-East. While other forms of criminality existed nationwide, the intensity and frequency of mass-casualty attacks were not as widely dispersed across states.
In recent years, however, security challenges have extended into areas that were previously considered relatively stable. States such as Kwara, Niger, and Sokoto have experienced growing incidents linked to banditry and insurgent infiltration. Reports of armed groups establishing camps in forested areas, including border regions, have raised fresh alarm.
More recently, concerns intensified following reports of criminal activity within and around the Oyo National Park. A decade ago, such developments would have seemed almost unimaginable to residents of southwestern Nigeria. The expansion of armed groups into forests and rural corridors in the South has fueled fears that insecurity is no longer regionally contained but increasingly national in scope.
Today, Nigeria contends with a complex web of threats: bandits in the North-West, insurgents in the North-East, communal clashes in the North-Central, separatist tensions in the South-East, and growing reports of criminal networks spreading southward. The multiplicity of actors—Boko Haram, ISWAP, armed bandits, and groups locally referred to as Lakurawa—illustrates a security ecosystem far more fragmented and unpredictable than a decade ago.
The Tinubu Administration and Renewed Claims of Improvement
The All Progressives Congress remains in power under Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who assumed office in 2023. As with previous administrations, official statements have emphasized progress in combating insecurity. Government officials have pointed to military offensives, neutralization of high-profile commanders, and rescue operations as indicators of forward movement.
However, critics question whether improvements in isolated metrics translate into overall national safety. While certain high-profile attacks may have reduced in frequency in some areas, new fronts of insecurity appear to have opened. The argument that Nigeria is safer today than it was in 2016 is therefore deeply contested.
The Seyi Law Controversy
The debate was reignited recently by Nigerian comedian Oluwaseyitan Aletile, popularly known as Seyi Law. His assertion that Nigeria is safer today than it was ten years ago sparked widespread reactions across social media platforms and public discourse.
For many Nigerians who have directly experienced kidnappings, bandit attacks, or the loss of loved ones to violent crime, such a statement feels deeply insensitive. The emotional weight of insecurity cannot be reduced to political talking points. Communities in affected regions measure safety not by official press releases but by lived reality—by whether farmers can safely cultivate their land, whether children can attend school without fear of abduction, and whether travelers can drive across state lines without anxiety.
Is Nigeria Safer Than in 2016?
Evaluating national security requires more than political rhetoric. In 2016, Boko Haram’s territorial dominance was a central threat. Today, while territorial occupation by insurgents may be limited compared to the height of the insurgency, Nigeria faces a diversified security crisis.
A decade ago, mass school kidnappings were not as widespread as they later became in the North-West. States in the South-West were not routinely mentioned in national security briefings. National parks were not discussed as potential havens for armed groups. The scale and diffusion of insecurity appear broader today.
Furthermore, the psychological climate has shifted. Fear of abduction for ransom has altered daily routines across many states. Rural depopulation due to repeated attacks has affected agricultural productivity, contributing indirectly to food insecurity and economic strain.
A Nation at a Crossroads
Nigeria’s security situation in 2026 reflects a nation grappling with layered and interconnected threats. While it is true that Boko Haram no longer controls vast swathes of territory as it once did, it is equally true that new actors have filled the vacuum. The rise of ISWAP, the entrenchment of banditry, recurring herder-farmer conflicts, and the spread of criminal networks into southern regions collectively challenge the notion that the country is safer than it was ten years ago.
To assert categorically that Nigeria is more secure today risks overlooking the lived experiences of millions who face daily uncertainty. Security is not merely the absence of territorial control by insurgents; it is the presence of safety, stability, and trust in institutions.
The debate sparked by Seyi Law underscores a broader national question: How should Nigeria measure progress in security? Is it by statistical reductions in specific types of attacks, or by the overall sense of safety experienced by citizens?
From a critical perspective, the evidence suggests that while certain tactical victories may have been achieved since 2016, Nigeria’s security challenges have evolved rather than disappeared. The threats have multiplied, diversified, and, in some cases, expanded geographically.
Declaring the country safer than a decade ago requires a holistic assessment that accounts for banditry, insurgency, communal violence, and the psychological toll on communities. Many Nigerians, observing the spread of insecurity into new regions and the persistence of violent actors, strongly disagree with the claim of improved safety.
As the nation continues to confront these realities, the priority must shift from political comparisons to comprehensive, sustainable security reforms. Only then can Nigeria genuinely claim to be safer—not just in official statements, but in the everyday lives of its people.
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