Nigeria’s Census Crisis: How a Distorted Population Count Continues to Fuel North–South Tensions and Policy Failure
For decades, Nigeria has struggled under the weight of unresolved demographic controversy. At the heart of this crisis lies one fundamental issue that successive governments have either mishandled or deliberately avoided: the absence of a truly credible national census. Until this problem is addressed transparently and decisively, the long-standing North–South dichotomy in Nigeria will continue to thrive, shaping political power, economic allocation, religious tension, and national distrust.
A credible census is not merely a statistical exercise. It is the backbone of effective governance. Population data determines political representation, federal revenue allocation, infrastructure planning, social services distribution, and national development priorities. When these numbers are inaccurate, manipulated, or politically engineered, the entire policy framework of the country becomes defective. Unfortunately, this has been Nigeria’s reality for far too long.
Policy Failure Rooted in Demographic Uncertainty
One of the most critical deficiencies in Nigeria’s policymaking process is the lack of reliable population data. From healthcare to education, housing to security, and electoral boundary delineation to economic planning, government decisions rely heavily on population statistics. When these statistics are flawed, policy outcomes become distorted, inefficient, and often unjust.
Experts in development economics and public administration have repeatedly emphasized that countries without credible demographic data struggle to plan sustainably. Nigeria exemplifies this challenge. Budgetary allocations are often disputed, constituency sizes questioned, and developmental indices skewed because the population baseline itself is contested.
The Obasanjo Census and the Allegations of Sabotage
The last major national census exercise was conducted during the administration of President Olusegun Obasanjo. That census, rather than resolving demographic disputes, deepened national suspicion and controversy. Allegations of sabotage, political interference, and elite manipulation followed the exercise, leaving Nigerians divided over its credibility.
According to documented policy debates and reports from that period, the original census framework included proposals that would have significantly improved accuracy and transparency. One such proposal was the identification of citizens along key demographic indicators, including religion. This approach aligns with international best practices, particularly in deeply plural societies where religious and ethnic composition plays a role in governance and social policy.
However, this proposal was strongly opposed by powerful interests, particularly among Northern political elites. Critics argued that including religious identification would expose demographic realities that had long been politically suppressed. The proposal was subsequently dropped.
Another rejected proposal involved the physical counting of residential houses and dwellings, a method widely used globally to cross-check population claims against actual habitation. This too was opposed, allegedly because it would have made it impossible to inflate population figures beyond verifiable living spaces. These rejections, taken together, raised serious questions about the intent behind the census process.
The Suppressed Reality of Religious Demographics
One of the most sensitive and politically charged issues tied to Nigeria’s census debate is religion. While Nigeria officially avoids publishing religious population data, the issue continues to influence political narratives, power structures, and regional dominance.
Independent demographic studies, international religious research institutions, and academic surveys conducted over the years consistently suggest that Nigeria’s religious population is far more balanced—or even tilts in favor of Christians—than official narratives imply. Yet, the figures that emerged from disputed census exercises have been maintained for decades, forming the basis for political legitimacy and federal power distribution.
The sustained preservation of these figures, despite mounting evidence and population shifts, has fueled deep mistrust. Critics argue that Nigeria has effectively institutionalized questionable data to maintain a fragile political equilibrium rather than confront demographic truth.
Middle Belt Reality: Christianity and Political Labeling
The Middle Belt, politically rebranded as the North Central zone, provides one of the clearest examples of demographic distortion. States such as Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Kogi, Kwara, and parts of Niger State are predominantly Christian in population and cultural identity. Yet, for political convenience, they are often subsumed under a “Northern Muslim majority” narrative.
This misrepresentation has had real consequences. It affects security policies, fuels communal conflicts, and marginalizes the unique identity of Middle Belt communities. Despite being geographically classified as “Northern,” their demographic reality challenges the simplistic North-equals-Muslim assumption that dominates national discourse.
Even in the so-called core North, Christianity maintains a visible and historically rooted presence, especially in urban centers, minority ethnic communities, and southern fringes of Northern states. These realities are rarely reflected in official narratives or policy discussions.
The South-West Controversy and Questionable Claims
Recent claims by some Muslim organizations that Muslims constitute up to 70 percent of the population in South-West Nigeria have further intensified demographic controversy. Such assertions raise critical questions: where do these figures originate? What methodology supports them? And why are they presented as factual without transparent data?
The South-West has historically been one of Nigeria’s most religiously plural regions, with Christianity, Islam, and traditional beliefs coexisting for centuries. Any claim of overwhelming dominance by one religious group without credible census data undermines social cohesion and invites suspicion.
Without a transparent national census, such claims remain speculative, politically motivated, and socially destabilizing.
Why Nigeria Needs a Credible Census Now
Globally, credible censuses are conducted with verifiable methodologies, digital identification systems, biometric data, house-to-house enumeration, and independent oversight. Nigeria cannot continue to lag behind while demographic uncertainty shapes its future.
A credible census would:
End decades of demographic manipulation
Provide a factual basis for revenue allocation and representation
Reduce religious and regional tension
Improve security planning and conflict prevention
Enable accurate development planning
Restore public trust in governance
Countries with far more complex diversity than Nigeria have successfully conducted transparent censuses. The refusal to do so here suggests not technical incapacity, but political reluctance.
Should States Take the Initiative?
If the Federal Government remains unwilling or unable to conduct a transparent census, then state governments may need to take the initiative. States can conduct independent population counts that include critical demographic indicators such as age, gender, occupation, religion, and housing.
Such state-level data would not replace a national census but would provide alternative datasets for planning and public discourse. It would also pressure federal authorities to confront the credibility crisis head-on.
Conclusion: Truth as the Foundation of Unity
Nigeria cannot continue to build national unity on disputed numbers and suppressed realities. A nation that fears counting itself honestly cannot plan, govern, or unite effectively. The census question is no longer just about population figures—it is about truth, justice, and national stability.
Until Nigeria conducts a transparent, credible, and verifiable census, the North–South dichotomy will persist, policy failures will continue, and distrust will deepen. The time has come to stop managing perceptions and start confronting reality. Truth, no matter how uncomfortable, remains the only sustainable foundation for national progress.
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