Oyo 2027: How Opposition Crises Could Strengthen APM and Create a Political Pathway for Abimbola Adekanmbi
As political activities gradually intensify ahead of the 2027 governorship election in Oyo State, emerging developments within the major opposition parties appear to be creating a political environment that could significantly benefit Governor Seyi Makinde's political structure and, by extension, the Allied Peoples Movement (APM).
This assessment is not based on partisan sentiment or political affiliation. Rather, it is an observation rooted in visible realities, ongoing political alignments, and the internal struggles currently playing out across opposition platforms in the state.
The first and perhaps most significant example is the All Progressives Congress (APC). Over the past several weeks, supporters of Chief Adebayo Adelabu and Senator Sharafadeen Alli have increasingly engaged in open disagreements across political gatherings, media platforms, and social forums. What should ordinarily be a united opposition preparing for a major electoral contest has instead become a party grappling with competing ambitions and factional interests.
Political observers have noted that Senator Sharafadeen Alli appears to enjoy considerable support among influential stakeholders within the APC, leading to widespread speculation that he may ultimately emerge as the party's preferred governorship candidate. However, this possibility presents a challenge. Many loyalists of Chief Adelabu may find it difficult to fully support such an outcome, potentially leading to voter apathy, internal sabotage, or outright defections.
The reverse scenario poses an equally serious risk. Should Adelabu emerge as the APC flagbearer, supporters of Senator Alli may become disillusioned, creating another layer of division within a party that desperately needs unity to challenge the ruling establishment.
A similar situation exists within the Accord Party. The prolonged rivalry between factions loyal to popular broadcaster Oriyomi Hamzat and those aligned with former governorship candidate Chief Kunle Rasheed Busari has created uncertainty about the party's future direction. Regardless of which tendency eventually secures dominance, there remains the possibility that dissatisfied supporters may either disengage from the electoral process or seek alternative political platforms.
The African Democratic Congress (ADC) is also confronting internal challenges. The contest for influence between Hon. Gbemileke "Eleniyan" Alagbe and Chief Adegoke "Solution" has generated competing claims of legitimacy and political superiority. Both camps maintain strong support bases, and the eventual emergence of one faction could trigger resistance from the other.
The implications of these developments are significant.
Politics is ultimately about numbers, structures, and strategic alliances. When influential politicians and their supporters feel marginalized within their parties, they naturally begin searching for alternative platforms through which they can pursue their ambitions and remain politically relevant.
This is where the APM may find itself in an advantageous position.
Unlike some opposition parties currently battling internal divisions, APM appears to be positioning itself as a potential destination for politicians, grassroots mobilizers, and stakeholders seeking a more accommodating political platform ahead of 2027.
Should the APC, Accord, and ADC fail to effectively manage their internal disputes, the resulting defections and political realignments could substantially strengthen APM's grassroots presence across various local government areas in Oyo State.
Such a development would not only expand the party's membership base but could also weaken the opposition's collective ability to present a united front against the ruling political structure.
Among those who could potentially benefit from this unfolding scenario is APM governorship aspirant Abimbola Adekanmbi. As more political actors explore alternative platforms, Adekanmbi's profile, network, and acceptability within the party may receive a significant boost.
While it remains too early to predict the final outcome of the 2027 governorship race, one reality is becoming increasingly evident: opposition parties in Oyo State face a greater threat from internal divisions than from external rivals.
If these crises persist unresolved, the political beneficiaries may not necessarily emerge from within the troubled parties themselves. Instead, the greatest gains could accrue to APM and its leading aspirants, who stand ready to capitalize on the growing dissatisfaction within rival camps.
In politics, elections are not won solely by popularity. They are often decided by organization, unity, strategic timing, and the ability to attract those who feel politically displaced. As the road to 2027 unfolds, these factors may ultimately redefine the balance of power in Oyo State.
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