As political activities intensify ahead of the August 15, 2026 Osun State governorship election, supporters of Governor Ademola Adeleke are expressing growing confidence that the incumbent will secure another victory, despite facing the All Progressives Congress (APC) in what is expected to be a fiercely contested election.
“Oh, I love this! Write this down. Put it on a piece of paper and keep it by your bedside. Then come back after the August 15 election,” a confident political commentator declared while assessing the chances of the major candidates.
The argument is largely anchored on the outcome of the 2022 Osun governorship election, when Adeleke, then the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), defeated the incumbent governor and APC candidate, Gboyega Oyetola.
That victory came at a time when the APC controlled the Federal Government, demonstrating that federal incumbency alone was insufficient to prevent Adeleke from winning the state.
The political landscape has since changed significantly.
Adeleke formally moved to the Accord Party in November 2025 and subsequently declared his intention to seek a second term on the platform. His candidacy for the August 2026 election has since been confirmed in the final list of candidates released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
His principal challenger is the APC governorship candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, a former Managing Director of the National Inland Waterways Authority. INEC's final candidate list confirms Oyebamiji as the APC flagbearer, with Benjamin Adereti as his running mate.
However, critics of the APC argue that the party enters the election carrying significant internal political baggage. Its governorship nomination process generated controversy after several aspirants, including prominent party figures, encountered difficulties during the screening and primary process. While this does not automatically determine the outcome of the general election, Adeleke's camp has repeatedly portrayed the opposition as politically divided.
The governor, meanwhile, has publicly predicted a convincing victory on August 15, insisting that his support extends beyond traditional party boundaries. In June, Adeleke described his re-election movement as a broad coalition and invited politicians and non-political stakeholders to join Accord ahead of the election.
His campaign has also publicised endorsements from organised labour representatives and other groups in the state, although such endorsements should not be treated as substitutes for actual voting intentions at the ballot box.
Against this background, Adeleke's supporters believe the APC faces a considerably tougher contest than it may publicly acknowledge.
They argue that if the APC, despite controlling both the Osun State Government and the Federal Government in 2022, could not stop Adeleke's victory, defeating him in 2026 as a sitting governor with an established political structure could prove even more difficult.
The assessment of Oyebamiji as an “uninspiring” or “weak” candidate remains a partisan political opinion rather than an established fact. Nevertheless, it reflects the central argument being advanced by Adeleke's supporters: that the election could ultimately become a referendum on the incumbent governor's record and personal popularity rather than merely a contest between political parties.
For those already predicting the outcome, the message is unmistakable:
Write the prediction down, keep the paper somewhere safe and bring it out after August 15.
Their prediction is emphatic: Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party will defeat the APC candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, and secure another term as Governor of Osun State.
Whether Osun voters agree with that prediction will ultimately be decided at the ballot box.
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