Come to think of it: the United States is already the world’s largest crude-oil producer, and its production has not been declining. In fact, official U.S. Energy Information Administration data show that American crude-oil production reached a record 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025, making the United States the largest producer in the world for the eighth consecutive year.
Now, with crude oil prices reportedly surging above $100 per barrel amid the continuing conflict involving Iran and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, an interesting question emerges: who ultimately benefits from the disruption in global oil supplies?
The United States is both a major oil producer and a major participant in the global energy market. Therefore, when geopolitical tensions restrict supplies and push prices higher, American producers can potentially benefit from higher prices, even though American consumers and industries may simultaneously face increased energy costs.
Then there is Venezuela.
Venezuela has the world's largest proven crude-oil reserves. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated Venezuela's proven reserves at approximately 303 billion barrels in 2023, representing about 17% of global proven reserves. Much of that oil is extra-heavy crude concentrated in the Orinoco Belt.
And something significant has happened there.
The Trump administration announced in August and September 2026 that the United States had secured majority control over more than 65 billion barrels of proven Venezuelan oil reserves through an agreement involving a new private Venezuelan oil company. The White House described the arrangement as a historic energy agreement designed to expand American access to Venezuelan crude and strengthen U.S. energy security.
Reuters likewise reported that the agreement gives the United States majority control over those reserves through partnerships with private businesses, although the precise legal and financial structure of the arrangement remains subject to questions and scrutiny.
Now look at Iran.
For months, the Strait of Hormuz has been at the centre of the confrontation. Iran has sought to use its geographical position and the strategic waterway as leverage, while the United States has applied military and economic pressure designed to restrict Tehran's ability to generate revenue from oil exports.
According to recent reporting, Iran's latest proposal offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart negotiations over its nuclear programme within seven days, provided Washington lifted its naval blockade, eased sanctions on Iranian oil sales and observed a ceasefire. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that he had rejected the proposal.
Trump's reported position is particularly significant because the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important oil-transit routes. Any sustained disruption there can affect global supply, shipping costs, insurance premiums and ultimately crude prices.
This brings us to the bigger picture.
Iran is losing oil revenue. Venezuela is increasingly operating within a framework shaped by Washington. American oil production remains at record levels. Global crude prices are elevated. And Washington is simultaneously attempting to reshape energy routes so that the world's oil trade becomes less dependent on the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump administration has even proposed a multibillion-dollar initiative with Gulf allies to develop alternative energy infrastructure and reduce dependence on the waterway.
So, when you look at the situation strictly through the lens of energy economics and geopolitics, a striking pattern emerges.
Iran's leverage is being challenged, while America's energy position is expanding.
That does not mean every increase in oil prices automatically benefits the United States; higher prices can hurt American motorists, businesses and consumers. Nor does it mean Washington has achieved complete control of global oil markets.
But the strategic calculation is difficult to ignore.
At a time when Iran is struggling to export oil normally, Venezuela's enormous reserves are being brought into a framework with substantial American involvement, while U.S. domestic production remains at historic levels.
The real question, therefore, may not simply be who controls the Strait of Hormuz?
It may be:
Who controls the alternatives when Hormuz becomes a battlefield?
And that is where America's expanding energy position becomes particularly important.
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