Brazil Turns Right? Flávio Bolsonaro Stuns Lula in First Round as Bolsonaro Wave Gains Momentum

BRAZIL’S POLITICAL EARTHQUAKE: Flávio Bolsonaro has finished ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round of the country’s presidential election, setting up a dramatic October 25 runoff that could determine whether Latin America’s largest economy makes a decisive shift to the political right.

With 99.99% of the votes counted, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) secured 47.03% of valid votes, equivalent to more than 56.1 million votes, while Lula of the Workers’ Party (PT) finished with 45.16%, or about 53.9 million votes. The margin—just 1.87 percentage points—was one of the closest first-round presidential results since Brazil’s return to democracy.

The result is particularly significant because most pre-election polling had shown Lula with a narrow lead or the candidates virtually tied. Flávio therefore enters the runoff with considerable momentum after outperforming expectations.

Bolsonaro Versus Lula: A Battle of Ideologies

Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and a sitting senator representing Rio de Janeiro. He has positioned himself firmly on the political right and has sought to continue the Bolsonaro movement while presenting himself as a candidate for political and economic change.

After the first-round result, Flávio declared that the outcome represented “the end of the PT era” and argued that Brazilians were demanding change. His campaign has emphasized public security, economic growth, entrepreneurship, smaller government and a tougher stance toward institutions he believes have interfered excessively in politics.

Lula, 80, meanwhile, is seeking another term after previously serving as president from 2003 to 2010 and returning to office in 2023. During the campaign, he framed the election as a struggle between “democracy and barbarism,” warning voters about what he sees as the dangers of a return of the Bolsonaro political movement.

Lula, Israel and the Gaza War

Lula has adopted a sharply critical position toward Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, creating a serious diplomatic dispute between Brasília and Tel Aviv.

In May 2024, Brazil formally withdrew its ambassador to Israel, Frederico Meyer, and reassigned him to a diplomatic position in Geneva. The move followed escalating tensions after Lula compared Israel’s actions in Gaza to the Holocaust—a statement that Israel strongly condemned. Brazil did not, however, sever diplomatic relations with Israel, and describing the ambassadorial withdrawal simply as support for Hamas would go beyond what the documented diplomatic action establishes.

Flávio Bolsonaro, by contrast, represents a political camp that is considerably more sympathetic toward Israel and closely aligned with the broader conservative movement associated with Donald Trump.

A Bigger Right-Wing Shift?

The Brazilian result also arrives amid a broader rightward movement in parts of Latin America. Several governments in the region have moved toward conservative or right-wing politics, while Trump-aligned leaders and movements have gained greater influence. Analysts therefore see Brazil’s runoff as potentially important not only for the country itself but also for the wider geopolitical balance of Latin America.

The stakes extend beyond ideology. Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy and one of the world’s most influential emerging powers. A Flávio Bolsonaro victory could produce a significant change in Brasília’s relationship with Washington, including closer ties with the Trump administration, while a Lula victory would preserve his government’s more independent foreign-policy approach.

October 25 Will Decide Everything

Despite finishing first, Flávio Bolsonaro has not won the presidency yet. Brazilian electoral law requires a candidate to obtain more than half of the valid votes to win outright. Since neither Flávio nor Lula reached that threshold, the two will face each other again on October 25.

The millions of Brazilians who supported other candidates in the first round now become the decisive voting bloc.

Brazil has delivered the first shock. Flávio Bolsonaro has beaten Lula in Round One.

Now comes the real battle: will Brazil complete the rightward turn—or will Lula stage a comeback on October 25?