From N50 Billion to N9 Trillion: When Political Claims Meet the Accountability Test
The business of political criticism often follows a familiar pattern: exaggerate first, investigate later, uncover the hidden facts, and then demand results and accountability. In a functioning democracy, however, the process should not stop at making allegations. It should lead to questions, verification, transparency and, ultimately, accountability from whoever controls public resources.
A recent controversy involving Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde and the Federal Government over Nigeria LNG (NLNG) dividends provides another example of why Nigerians must look beyond political headlines and examine the numbers.
You may recall the controversy surrounding the January 2024 Ibadan explosion. Former Ekiti State Governor Ayodele Fayose accused Makinde of receiving ₦50 billion from the Federal Government as intervention funds. Makinde's administration subsequently clarified that the Federal Government released ₦30 billion, not ₦50 billion, to Oyo State in connection with the disaster. The dispute therefore became a useful reminder that political claims can sometimes begin with one figure before subsequent scrutiny produces another.
Now, another financial controversy has emerged—this time involving NLNG dividends.
Makinde recently claimed that each of Nigeria's 36 states was supposed to receive approximately ₦250 billion from NLNG-related funds. If calculated across the 36 states, that would amount to ₦9 trillion. He questioned why the money had allegedly not been released and raised concerns that the states were being told to wait until after the 2027 general elections.
That allegation immediately raises a fundamental question: if the money exists, where is it, who is holding it, and under what legal or fiscal arrangement is it being retained?
But the Federal Government has now challenged the arithmetic behind Makinde's claim.
In its October 18 response, the Presidency argued that ₦250 billion for each of the 36 states would amount to ₦9 trillion, excluding the Federal Government, the Federal Capital Territory and the 774 local government areas. Presidential spokesman Bayo Onanuga said that, under the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) revenue-sharing framework, states receive 26.72 per cent of distributable revenue. According to the Presidency, generating ₦9 trillion as the states' share would require more than ₦33.68 trillion in total NLNG dividends—equivalent to roughly $25 billion at the exchange rate used in its calculation.
The Presidency further stated that NLNG has paid approximately $21.5 billion in dividends to the Federation over the past 25 years, with less than $3 billion realised since President Bola Tinubu assumed office. It therefore argues that the historical figures do not support the suggestion that a single NLNG dividend payment large enough to produce ₦250 billion for every state is currently being withheld.
This is where political criticism should become something more useful than partisan shouting.
The real issue is no longer simply whether Makinde's ₦250 billion figure is correct or whether the Presidency's calculation is correct. The public deserves to see the underlying documents.
How much has NLNG actually paid into the Federation Account during the Tinubu administration? How much was received, when was it received, how was it accounted for, what portion was distributable, what deductions or obligations applied, and what amount was eventually shared among the three tiers of government?
If there is no ₦9 trillion sitting somewhere waiting to be distributed, Nigerians deserve a clear explanation of that fact.
If, on the other hand, substantial NLNG-related revenue has been received by the Federal Government and has not yet been distributed because of a legitimate fiscal, legal or accounting arrangement, Nigerians also deserve to know exactly where the money went and when the states can expect their statutory entitlement.
That is the essence of accountability.
Political criticism should not be about simply finding the loudest allegation. It should be about following the money, checking the facts and asking uncomfortable questions—regardless of which political party is involved.
From the disputed ₦50 billion allegation to the current ₦9 trillion NLNG controversy, the lesson remains the same: numbers should not be weapons of political propaganda. They should be evidence.
And once public money is involved, the final question should always be:
Where is the money, what happened to it, and who will account for it?
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