At a recent Global Commodity Insights Conference organized by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority with S&P Global Insights, Aliko Dangote, founder of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, made a bold public plea:
> “The _Nigeria First_ policy should extend to petroleum products — petrol, diesel, and more.”
> He argued that fuel imports are undermining Nigeria’s refining capabilities and discouraging local investment. Dangote insisted his refinery is not seeking dominance but survival for domestic investors.
⚙️ Expansion and Market Domination: Dangote’s Vision
- Dangote Refinery recently exported an estimated 1 million tonnes of petrol within 50 days—roughly 1.35 billion liters—showing Nigeria has become a net exporter of refined products.
- It’s expected to reach full capacity of *650,000 barrels per day by late 2025*, with potential to meet and exceed Nigeria’s national demand.[2]
- The Nigerian Bar Association endorsed full government support for President Tinubu’s directive to prioritize Dangote Refinery’s crude supply, citing resistance from entrenched fuel import interests.
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⚠️ Fuel Importers Strike Back
- Industry groups like *IPMAN* and *PETROAN* have warned against an import ban, stressing that Nigeria’s refining capacity is still *insufficient to meet national demand*. Any hasty move could spark scarcity and price hikes.
- The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) insisted that imports foster competition and help stabilize prices—not monopoly.
- Experts also flagged legal concerns that rushing into a ban may violate international trade law and open Nigeria up to legal jeopardy.
⚖️ Legal Power Plays
- In March 2025, Dangote filed a lawsuit seeking ₦100 billion ($65 million) in damages, accusing regulators of unlawfully issuing import permits contrary to legislation. A judge dismissed NNPC’s objections, allowing the case to proceed.
- Meanwhile, *NNPC* has stopped importing fuel and now sources entirely from domestic refineries like Dangote’s, reporting annual import bills drop from N24 trillion.
🎯 Why This Feels Like a Breaking Point
This intensifying conflict reflects broader themes in Nigeria’s energy policy:
- *Economic nationalism vs. market competition*
- Push to reduce foreign exchange drain from fuel imports
- Debate over whether one mega-refinery can serve supply stability
- *Regulatory oversight and corporate accountability* under the Petroleum Industry Act
🔍 Why This Matters
- Dangote’s proposed ban represents a bold test of Nigeria’s *industrial policy and self-sufficiency ambitions*.
- Critics fear it could foster a *private monopoly* unless new refineries are operational to meet consumer demand.
- With the federal government embracing “Nigeria First,” this moment could become a golden opportunity—or a misstep with serious consequences.
Stay tuned for ongoing coverage on this pivotal shift in Nigeria’s energy landscape and economic sovereignty.
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