There is a refrain in Nigeria today: “the only solution to the country’s crises is revolution.” But revolution—especially in a nation as complex, large, and diverse as Nigeria—carries immense risk. Many who call for overthrowing the system do not consider the costs along ethnic, religious, regional, and infrastructural fault lines. Recent developments under President Bola Tinubu show that while reform is painful, it may offer a more sustainable route out of crisis than a violent upheaval. This post examines those developments, contrasts them with what has happened elsewhere, and argues that radical reform (not revolution) is what Nigeria needs now.
Recent News & Reforms: Evidence of Change
To understand why many believe revolution, let’s first look at what is actually happening in Nigeria now. Several government reform initiatives over the past two years have begun to show measurable outcomes. These give us data to evaluate whether reform can succeed versus the hazards of revolution.
1. Economic Growth and Stabilization
Nigeria’s economy grew 4.23% year-on-year in Q2 2025, the fastest rate in four years. This growth was powered in part by a rebound in oil production and steady gains in the non-oil sector.
Inflation, which has been a sore point for ordinary Nigerians, is showing signs of cooling. In August 2025, inflation slipped to 20.1%, down from 21.9% in July.
2. Financial / Fiscal Reforms
For the first time in five years, Nigeria’s Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate (by 0.5 percentage points, to ~27%) and lowered the cash reserve ratio for commercial banks from 50% to 45%. These moves aim to ease borrowing costs and stimulate business-activity.
Tax reform bills passed by the House of Representatives include changes to VAT and income tax, relief for minimum wage earners, and improved sharing of revenues across federal, state, and local governments.
3. Vision and Targets
President Tinubu has publicly announced a goal of 7% annual economic growth by 2027, alongside ambitions to quadruple the size of Nigeria’s economy by 2030.
Government spokespeople have emphasized infrastructure investment (roads, energy, education), agricultural reform (food security, lowering food prices through policies like suspending tariffs), and support for small businesses.
4. Political and Institutional Moves
Tinubu’s administration has taken steps to reform the oil sector, including new appointments in the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) board, aiming for greater transparency and value extraction.
The government has also expressed its understanding of the hardships these reforms cause; it has urged patience and promised the benefits will begin to accrue if citizens endure the transition.
Why Revolution Is Risky for Nigeria
With the foregoing reforms, it’s instructive to contrast the costs and risks of revolution—especially in fragile, divided states—with those of reform. Here are several key risk factors.
1. Ethnic, Religious, and Regional Fragility
Nigeria is not a small, culturally homogenous state. It has multiple major ethnic groups (Yoruba, Igbo, Hausa/Fulani, many others), deep religious divides, and stark regional disparities (e.g. Niger, Delta, North vs. South). A revolution often enflames these fault lines. It is unlikely that when one group overthrows another, the losers will accept the result peacefully.
2. Historical Precedents
Look at the Arab Spring: many “revolutions” in fragile states (Yemen, Syria, Libya, Iraq, Sudan) did not yield stable democracies but rather plunged nations into civil war, authoritarian relapse, or state collapse. The lesson: removing a regime is easier than building institutions, trust, justice, and peace.
3. Cost of Violence
Violence brings death, displacement, breakdown of public services, collapse of infrastructure, mass suffering. War doesn’t respect identities; civilians are always hit hardest. Once violence begins, even reformers tend to lose control of consequences.
4. Leadership and Vision Are Rare
For a revolution to succeed without leaving chaos behind, you need leaders who can think deeply, who have legitimacy across divides, who can plan. Protest leaders may be effective at rallying people—but leadership of a state requires expertise, negotiation, knowledge of institutions, law, security, economics—skills often lacking in revolutionary movements.
The Case for Radical Reform Over Revolution
Reform can seem slow, painful, and riddled with compromise—but it carries many advantages, especially where a country is fragile and diverse.
1. Legitimacy and Continuity
Radical reform, when pursued through existing institutions (parliament, courts, regulatory bodies), maintains a sense of continuity. People are more likely to accept change when it comes from channels that are known and existing, rather than from sudden overthrow.
2. Lower Risk of Descent into Chaos
Even imperfect reform can avoid the worst of civil war, mass displacement, or authoritarian takeover. There is time to build consensus, to adjust course if mistakes are made.
3. Long-Term Structural Change
Policy reforms—tax, agriculture, infrastructure, judicial reform—can change the fabric of society in fundamental ways. These are hard to build in a revolutionary moment but are sustainable if nurtured over time.
4. Recent Examples in Nigeria Show Progress
What we see under Tinubu: easing inflation, growth in economy, some decline in food and fuel prices, reforms in taxation and oil—this shows action, not just rhetoric. Citizens are suffering, yes—but there are measurable gains. These gains might look small now, but they signal potential.
What Must Be Done To Make Reform Work—and Avoid Revolution
For reforms to succeed, certain conditions must be met. Otherwise, even well-intentioned reforms may collapse or breed rebellion.
1. Transparency and Accountability
The process must be transparent—why certain taxes are introduced, how revenues are used, who benefits. If reforms are seen as scams or tools for elite benefit, anger rises.
2. Inclusion of Marginalised Groups
Ensure that minorities, all regions, various faiths see themselves represented. Economic burdens should be fairly shared; reliefs given where needed.
3. Strong Institutions
Courts, civil service, anti-corruption bodies, law enforcement must be strong, ideally apolitical. Without strong institutions, reforms are vulnerable to rollback or abuse.
4. Communication and Social Support Mechanisms
Reforms must be accompanied by public education—why removing subsidies or hiking taxes may be necessary for long-term health. Also, social safety nets: for the poorest, who feel change more acutely.
5. Gradualism with Boldness
Reforms must be decisive, otherwise half-measures lead to broken promises; but they also need to be paced so society can adapt. Mixed economy, mixed pace; sometimes fast action (e.g. ending fuel subsidy) but also gradual building (education, infrastructure).
What Revolution Might Look Like—and What It Risks
When people call for revolution, they often don’t imagine the aftermath. But looking at what has happened elsewhere—and what could happen in Nigeria—helps us see why that path is dangerous.
Revolution often means breakdown of law and order for a period. That can mean looting, targeted attacks on minorities, rise of warlords or militias.
Vacuum of power can lead to authoritarian replacements—not always better than what was removed.
Economic collapse during revolution is almost certain: people lose jobs, trade halts, foreign investors flee, currency crashes.
For Nigeria, with its size (both geographic and population), its infrastructural deficits (roads, power, health), and regional inequalities, a revolution would likely escalate into internal conflict: communities arming themselves, tensions along ethnic or religious lines boiling over.
Counter-Arguments and Caveats
To be fair, the case for revolution often arises because reforms are slow, painful, or seem to favour elites. Many Nigerians feel left behind. Rising living costs, inflation, tariff increases—all these are real grievances.
Some protests and activism are essential—they keep government honest, highlight abuses, force change. But activism is different from revolution. One can and should hold power to account without seeking wholesale overthrow.
Also, reformers often default to preserving existing power hierarchies; sometimes they make reforms that shift burdens unfairly. Those failures can fuel calls for revolution. So reform must be sincere, broad-based, and just.
Conclusion: What Nigeria Should Do Now
Support systemic reform over calls to overthrow: encourage policies that grow the economy, stabilize prices, rebuild infrastructure, improve governance.
Strengthen institutions and build inclusive governance so that all Nigerians, regardless of ethnicity, region or faith, feel part of the project.
Demand transparency and accountability from all, especially on how revenue from oil, taxes, and reforms are spent.
Promote education, civil conversation, media awareness so people are well informed—not just angry.
Resist simplistic slogans: revolution looks romantic in words, but is nightmarish in practice.
Revolution is alluring when people are desperate—but for countries on fault lines, the risk is often much greater than the promise. Nigeria is fragile in many ways, but it is not beyond repair. The current reforms are flawed, painful, and controversial—but they offer a path that, with collective effort, may lead to a stable, just, prosperous Nigeria. Let us choose reform—not out of fear, but out of the conviction that it can work.
0 Comments