As Nigeria’s next election cycle slowly but surely inches closer, the familiar drumbeats of political realignment have begun to sound across the South-West. Party structures are being tested, loyalties strained, and long-suppressed ambitions are surfacing with renewed urgency. The recent nullification of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Ibadan convention has not only jolted the party’s internal cohesion but has also reshaped the balance of power in Oyo and Osun States—two strategic PDP strongholds whose political futures are now anything but certain.
What appears on the surface as a legal setback is, in reality, a seismic political event. With the election calendar set to open soon, timing could not have been worse for the PDP. The Ibadan convention was widely seen as a rallying point for a formidable bloc within the party—one capable of mounting serious opposition to the entrenched power brokers of the All Progressives Congress (APC). Its nullification has effectively weakened that bloc, stripping the PDP of momentum at a critical juncture and exposing deep internal fractures that may prove costly in the months ahead.
The Ibadan Convention Nullification: More Than a Court Ruling
Court decisions in Nigerian politics are rarely just about legality; they are also about leverage, timing, and political consequence. The nullification of the PDP Ibadan convention has created a vacuum—one that threatens to destabilize the party’s organisational strength across the South-West. The convention faction represented not just a leadership tendency but a concentration of grassroots energy, political capital, and strategic coordination.
By losing this platform, the PDP has inadvertently handed its rivals a psychological advantage. In Nigerian politics, perception is power. A party perceived as internally divided is often treated by voters, financiers, and even security stakeholders as a weakened force. This is particularly dangerous at a time when APC power brokers are consolidating influence at both the federal and regional levels.
Why Adeleke Took No Chances in Osun
Governor Ademola Adeleke’s political instincts now appear prescient. Long before the Ibadan convention crisis reached its peak, Adeleke had already moved decisively to secure the PDP’s party structure in Osun State. Rather than relying on fragile national alignments or factional goodwill, he ensured that the state PDP machinery remained firmly under his control.
This was not paranoia; it was political survival. Osun remains one of the most hotly contested states in the South-West, and Adeleke understands that internal party crises can be just as lethal as opposition attacks. The unfolding events within the PDP have validated his approach. By ringfencing Osun’s party structure, Adeleke insulated himself from the kind of factional shockwaves now rippling through Oyo State.
Osun PDP Candidate Crisis: A Factional Time Bomb
Ironically, while Adeleke fortified his base, the PDP has now produced a candidate in Osun who belongs to the Ibadan convention faction—the very faction whose legitimacy has been judicially questioned. This development raises uncomfortable questions about the viability of the PDP’s electoral project in the state.
If the factional dispute is not conclusively resolved, the PDP risks entering the Osun contest with a divided house, opening the door for legal challenges, voter apathy, and strategic sabotage. In Nigerian electoral history, few things are more damaging than intra-party litigation during campaign season. It drains resources, distracts leadership, and hands opponents a ready-made campaign narrative.
In practical terms, the Osun PDP’s place of contest may already be compromised. Without unity, mobilisation becomes fragmented, messaging loses coherence, and the opposition smells blood.
Oyo State PDP: A Ruling Party at a Crossroads
The implications for Oyo State are even more complex. As the ruling party, the PDP in Oyo cannot afford prolonged uncertainty. Yet, the Ibadan convention nullification has injected exactly that—uncertainty—into the party’s bloodstream.
Governor Seyi Makinde’s recent public posture following his meeting with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has further intensified speculation. His statement that the APC is “not an option” may sound reassuring to PDP loyalists, but seasoned political observers know that Nigerian politics thrives on coded language and strategic ambiguity.
Makinde’s national stature has grown, and with it, his bargaining power. His interaction with Tinubu—himself a master strategist—has inevitably fueled rumours of behind-the-scenes calculations. While Makinde may not be defecting, his positioning suggests a leader keenly aware that party loyalty must be balanced against political reality.
The Oriyomi Factor: Accord Party as a Waiting Room?
Amid this uncertainty, one name continues to surface with increasing frequency: Oriyomi Hamzat. Currently holding the reins of the Accord Party in Oyo State, Oriyomi is widely regarded as a political wildcard—someone whose next move could trigger a chain reaction.
There is growing speculation that Accord Party may be quietly positioned as a landing zone for disgruntled PDP members should the internal crisis worsen. In Nigerian politics, smaller parties often serve as temporary shelters—vehicles for negotiation, coalition-building, or eventual reintegration under new terms.
Oriyomi’s grassroots appeal, media influence, and populist credibility make him a particularly valuable asset in this equation. If a mass exodus from the PDP does occur, Accord Party could instantly transform from a peripheral player into a central force.
Deputy Governor Calculations and the Rise of Oke Ogun
Against this backdrop, the idea of Oriyomi as a potential deputy governor no longer sounds far-fetched. In fact, it aligns neatly with emerging zoning calculations and power-balancing imperatives within Oyo State politics.
The Oke Ogun axis has long agitated for greater inclusion at the highest levels of state governance. With demographic weight, electoral significance, and a history of perceived marginalisation, the region is increasingly difficult to ignore. The growing consensus that an Oke Ogun candidate could emerge—either as governor or deputy—reflects a broader recalibration of political expectations.
If PDP power brokers hope to stabilise the party and retain relevance, accommodating Oke Ogun’s aspirations may be unavoidable. Oriyomi, with his cross-party appeal and independent structure, fits neatly into this emerging logic.
APC Watching, Waiting, and Benefiting
While the PDP grapples with internal turmoil, the APC watches patiently. History shows that the ruling party at the centre often benefits when opposition forces fracture. Even without overt intervention, the mere existence of PDP disunity strengthens APC’s negotiating hand, recruitment efforts, and electoral confidence.
In Oyo and Osun alike, APC strategists are undoubtedly mapping scenarios: court cases dragging on, parallel party structures emerging, and opposition voters growing disillusioned. Every unresolved PDP crisis is, by default, an APC opportunity.
Conclusion: A Defining Moment for PDP in the South-West
The nullification of the PDP Ibadan convention may well be remembered as a turning point. Not because of the court ruling itself, but because of what it exposed: fragile alliances, unresolved ambitions, and a party struggling to adapt to a rapidly shifting political environment.
As the election calendar opens, PDP leaders in Oyo and Osun face stark choices. Unity will require sacrifice, compromise, and strategic clarity. Failure to act decisively could result in defections, voter fatigue, and a gradual erosion of the party’s once-dominant position in the South-West.
One thing is clear: the political chessboard is being reset. Oriyomi’s quiet manoeuvres, Oke Ogun’s rising relevance, Makinde’s national calculations, and Adeleke’s defensive foresight all point to a region in transition. In Nigerian politics, those who fail to read the signs rarely survive the storm.
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