Nigeria Is Not a “Mushroom Country”: Why Comparing Our States to Full Nations Exposes the Real Failure of Governance
Nigeria’s population debate, governance failures, and persistent underdevelopment are often clouded by misleading comparisons and emotional arguments. To have an honest national conversation, we must first fix the lens through which we view Nigeria—its population size, landmass, federal structure, and the enormous constitutional powers of its state governments. When this is done properly, one uncomfortable truth becomes unavoidable: Nigeria’s problem is not lack of capacity, size, or potential; it is a chronic failure of leadership at the subnational level.
Nigeria, with an estimated population exceeding 220 million people, cannot be meaningfully compared to small or mid-sized countries whose total populations are equal to—or even smaller than—individual Nigerian states. Yet this flawed comparison persists in public discourse, often deployed to exaggerate Nigeria’s challenges or excuse governance failure. In reality, the only reasonable population comparisons for Nigeria are countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Brazil—large, complex, multi-ethnic nations with massive populations and similar structural pressures.
Anything outside this group is a statistical distraction.
50 Countries, One Nigeria-Sized Population
The 50 countries listed below collectively have a combined population of approximately 245 million people, which is only marginally higher than Nigeria’s total population. This means that Nigeria alone carries the same demographic weight as 50 sovereign nations combined.
These countries include Azerbaijan, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Austria, Switzerland, Singapore, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Ireland, New Zealand, Qatar, Namibia, Mongolia, Uruguay, Jamaica, Armenia, and many others—each with populations ranging between roughly 3 million and 10 million people.
To put this in perspective:
Lagos State alone has a population larger than over 40 of these countries individually.
Kano State rivals or surpasses several European and Middle Eastern nations.
Oyo, Rivers, Kaduna, Anambra, Ogun, and Delta States each govern populations that exceed entire sovereign countries with stable economies, functional infrastructure, and strong institutions.
Yet despite this reality, Nigerian states consistently underperform across almost every human development indicator.
Landmass vs Population: The Namibia Reality Check
Population density further exposes the illusion surrounding Nigeria’s demographic structure.
Namibia is a striking example. The country has a landmass only about 150,000 square kilometres smaller than Nigeria’s, yet its population is just around 3 million people. Nigeria, by contrast, carries over 220 million people on roughly the same land area.
This comparison destroys the assumption that landmass alone determines population distribution or development outcomes. It also reinforces a critical but often ignored point: Northern Nigeria is not necessarily more populated than Southern Nigeria, despite its larger geographical size.
Large land does not equal large population. It simply means large space—often underutilized.
The Middle Belt Myth and Nigeria’s Population Geography
Another uncomfortable truth is the political, not historical, classification of Nigeria’s regions.
The Middle Belt—comprising states such as Benue, Plateau, Kogi, Nasarawa, Taraba, and parts of Niger—is not geographically, historically, or culturally Northern Nigeria. The grouping of these areas into the “North” is largely a political construct that emerged during colonial administration and was later reinforced for convenience of power aggregation.
When population figures are recalculated without this political distortion, it becomes increasingly clear that Southern Nigeria is at least as populous—if not more populous—than core Northern Nigeria.
This matters because population claims are often weaponized in national politics, federal allocation debates, and power-sharing arrangements. When those claims are built on shaky foundations, the entire governance structure suffers.
Nigerian Governors: Presidents Without Armies
Nigeria operates a federal system in name and law. Under the Constitution, state governors wield enormous powers—over budgets, infrastructure, taxation (to an extent), education, healthcare, land administration, and internal economic planning.
In practical terms, every Nigerian state governor is as powerful as the president of any of the 50 countries listed earlier, with one major exception: they do not control a standing army.
That is the only difference.
Governors of states like Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Armenia, or Portugal govern populations comparable to Nigerian states—yet their societies enjoy higher living standards, stronger institutions, better infrastructure, and lower poverty rates.
The question, therefore, is unavoidable:
Why do Nigerian governors fail where their global counterparts succeed?
The Poverty Nigeria Didn’t Have to Suffer
If Nigerian governors governed their states with the seriousness, discipline, and long-term vision of presidents in Scandinavia, Eastern Europe, or even small African nations, poverty would not be Nigeria’s defining identity.
Nigeria would not be a country where:
Youth unemployment dominates headlines
Infrastructure decays faster than it is built
Education systems collapse while budgets rise
States rely almost entirely on federal allocations instead of internally generated revenue
The tragedy is not that Nigeria is poor.
The tragedy is that Nigeria did not have to be poor.
Elephant Projects, No Economic Vision
One of the most destructive patterns of governance in Nigeria is the obsession with “elephant projects”—large, flashy, poorly planned initiatives designed more for political showmanship than economic impact.
Governors spend eight years:
Building underutilized flyovers
Constructing massive but empty government complexes
Launching vanity projects with no connection to job creation
Meanwhile, they neglect:
Agriculture value chains
Small and medium enterprise development
Industrial clusters
Technical education and vocational skills
Digital economy opportunities
Modern nations are not built on concrete alone. They are built on productive citizens, efficient systems, and deliberate economic planning—areas Nigerian state governments routinely ignore.
Tinubu, the Macro Economy, and the Missing Micro Reforms
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration has taken painful but necessary steps to address Nigeria’s macroeconomic distortions—fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate unification, and fiscal restructuring. These reforms are foundational, not optional.
However, macroeconomic reform alone cannot rescue Nigeria.
The real battle is at the microeconomic level, and that battle belongs squarely to the states.
If states do not:
Reform land use and property systems
Support local manufacturing
Invest in human capital
Create business-friendly environments
Strengthen local security and rule of law
Then no amount of federal reform will translate into real prosperity for ordinary Nigerians.
States must stop behaving like administrative outposts and start acting like serious economic entities.
From Populism to Visionary Governance
Nigeria’s governors must abandon:
Performative governance
Social media populism
Endless political grandstanding
And embrace:
Data-driven planning
Long-term economic strategies
Regional competitiveness
Accountability and transparency
A governor is not elected to entertain the public. A governor is elected to build a future.
The Final Word
Nigeria is not a small country pretending to be big.
Nigeria is a massive country pretending to be small.
Our states are large enough, powerful enough, and wealthy enough to function like independent nations. What they lack is not population, land, or resources—but competence, vision, and courage.
And for those eager to argue without confronting these facts, remember this timeless Urhobo proverb:
> “It is better to be born a thief than to be born a mumu.”
Nigeria does not suffer from ignorance of the problem.
Nigeria suffers from refusal to act on what is already obvious.
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