In the span of just a few months, the political landscape in Oyo State and beyond has shifted dramatically, highlighting the fragility of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) under the leadership of Governor Seyi Makinde’s faction. What began with electoral victories, such as the by-election that brought Fola Don into the Ibadan North federal representative seat, now seems overshadowed by a series of devastating legal losses and organizational paralysis. To understand how quickly fortunes can change in Nigerian politics, it is essential to trace the developments between these few months and project the implications for the 2027 elections.
1. From By-Election Success to Judicial Setbacks
The Ibadan North federal constituency by-election was a key political moment for the PDP. Fola Don, representing the party, emerged victorious, signaling that the PDP could still mobilize grassroots support in Oyo State despite nationwide challenges. The win seemed to reaffirm Seyi Makinde’s influence and hinted at the party’s potential resurgence ahead of general elections.
However, the optimism from that victory has since been undermined by court rulings against Makinde’s faction. Within the last two weeks, two critical judicial defeats occurred — one in Abuja and the other in Ibadan. The Ibadan court, in a landmark judgment, nullified the PDP Ibadan convention, effectively invalidating the leadership elected at that gathering. The Abuja ruling similarly dismissed a case filed by Makinde’s faction to assert control over the party’s national structures.
These court decisions have crippled the faction’s ability to organize primaries, field candidates, or participate meaningfully in party decision-making, raising questions about the faction’s relevance in the national political arena.
2. The Curious Calm of Governor Seyi Makinde
Despite these setbacks, Governor Makinde appears unfazed. The reason is clear: Makinde is not seeking re-election or any other political office in 2027. His tenure as governor represents the fulfillment of a long-term political goal he leveraged the PDP to achieve. Unlike other ambitious politicians, he does not face the pressure of contesting again, giving him a strategic buffer that allows him to observe rather than panic.
For Makinde, remaining in PDP serves as a hedge for the future. Should the party reorganize or resurrect itself after 2027, it could provide renewed political utility for him and loyalists. For other politicians who are eyeing positions in the next elections, however, the stakes are far higher.
3. PDP’s Structural Collapse in Other Key States
The troubles of Makinde’s faction are not confined to Oyo State. PDP currently lacks gubernatorial candidates in both Ekiti and Osun states, creating a precedent that should serve as a cautionary tale for Oyo aspirants.
Ekiti State
In Ekiti, the PDP’s attempts to field a candidate have been derailed by judicial injunctions and internal disputes, delaying recognition by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Without a legally recognized candidate, the party risks losing ballot access, weakening its electoral relevance.
Osun State
Osun mirrors Ekiti’s challenges. Internal divisions, combined with unresolved leadership claims at the national level, have left PDP unable to field a candidate that is universally recognized by INEC. Reports indicate that some party stakeholders are even supporting candidates on other platforms, signaling a breakdown of party cohesion.
These developments demonstrate that legal uncertainty at the national level cascades down to state-level electoral incapacity. For politicians in Oyo and other states, ignoring this reality could be politically fatal.
4. The Clock Is Ticking: Court Appeals and INEC Deadlines
The appeal and court process for the PDP factions will likely take another three to four months to resolve, potentially running into the period when political parties are required to submit candidates for the 2027 elections, usually by July. This timing is critical because any delay in resolving leadership disputes risks excluding the faction from nominating candidates in key constituencies, thereby disenfranchising supporters and weakening the party’s bargaining position.
Compounding this urgency is the recent INEC meeting in Abuja, where the Makinde faction was not invited. This is widely interpreted as a major warning sign — a “red flag” indicating that the faction may not be recognized for electoral purposes if the party’s internal crises are not resolved promptly.
5. Strategic Implications for Politicians Eyeing 2027
Given these developments, the implications for Nigerian politicians are profound. Those with serious ambitions for 2027 must consider alternative strategies. Staying in a half-dead PDP risks losing the electoral opportunity entirely. By contrast, defecting to more stable platforms such as APC, Accord Party, or other viable alternatives could safeguard candidacy and increase the likelihood of electoral success.
This is not necessarily a repudiation of loyalty to Makinde, but a pragmatic political calculation. For Makinde himself, the stakes are lower, but for aspiring legislators, governors, or party officials, the PDP’s current trajectory may close doors permanently if not addressed immediately.
6. Lessons from the By-Election to Today
The trajectory from Fola Don’s by-election victory to the current court losses demonstrates several critical lessons about Nigerian politics:
Electoral wins do not guarantee party stability. Winning a seat, as Fola Don did, is one thing; controlling party structures and ensuring legal recognition is another.
Leadership voids are fatal. Makinde’s faction faces losses precisely because of its contested leadership and the inability to assert authority nationally.
Legal battles have immediate political consequences. Courts nullifying conventions and leadership decisions directly affect the party’s ability to function and field candidates.
Timing is crucial. Political parties operate under strict electoral deadlines. Delays in resolving disputes can lead to automatic exclusion from ballots.
Strategic positioning matters. Politicians must assess whether staying in a faction with diminishing influence serves their long-term goals.
7. Is the Game Over for Makinde’s PDP Faction?
All signs point to a grim outlook. With court losses in Abuja and Ibadan, lack of gubernatorial candidates in key states, and exclusion from INEC consultations, the Seyi Makinde faction appears to be losing both legal and political ground.
Yet, the faction’s survival is not impossible. If it can quickly resolve internal disputes, secure recognition, and field candidates before INEC deadlines, there is a window for redemption. Until then, however, the reality is stark: the PDP under Makinde’s leadership is struggling to maintain national relevance and risks being sidelined in the upcoming 2027 elections.
For aspiring politicians and party stakeholders, the message is clear: realistic reassessment of party affiliation and strategy is urgent. While Makinde may remain calm, the broader political consequences for others are immediate and profound.
Conclusion
From the euphoria of Fola Don’s by-election victory to the shock of consecutive court defeats, the PDP under Seyi Makinde’s faction faces a turbulent and uncertain future. With judicial setbacks, absent gubernatorial candidates in crucial states, and a growing disconnect with INEC, the party risks losing ballot presence and political influence in 2027.
Governor Makinde’s faction may choose to remain within the party for strategic reasons, but for other political actors, the time for pragmatic decisions is now. For those serious about competing in the next general elections, sticking with a faltering PDP could be politically costly. The writing on the wall is clear: unless swift action is taken, the game may well be over for the GSM faction of the PDP.
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