Oyo State Politics and the Unfinished Story of Democratic Power Transfer: Can Governor Seyi Makinde Break the Final Jinx in 2027?
Oyo State has long stood as one of Nigeria’s most politically vibrant and historically significant states. From its deep cultural roots in the old Western Region to its strategic role in modern Nigerian politics, the state has consistently produced influential leaders and shaped national discourse. Yet, beneath this rich political heritage lies a stubborn historical pattern—one that has defined Oyo’s democratic journey for decades: the difficulty of sustaining continuity of power within the same political structure.
For years, Oyo politics was marked by instability in executive continuity. Governors struggled not only with governance but with the political architecture necessary to secure re-election or successfully transfer power within their own party. It became almost predictable that incumbents would either fail to secure a second term or that party structures would collapse before a smooth succession could occur.
That cycle, however, began to shift in recent years.
The Historical Context: From 1976 to the Fourth Republic
To understand the magnitude of what is at stake in 2027, we must rewind history.
Oyo State was created in 1976 during the military administration of General Murtala Mohammed, carved out of the old Western State. Since then, the state has experienced military and civilian administrations, but democratic governance as we know it today took structured form beginning in 1979 and more consistently from 1999 under Nigeria’s Fourth Republic.
From 1999 onward, Oyo witnessed a sequence of governors under different political parties:
Lam Adesina of the (Alliance for Democracy era)
Rasheed Ladoja of the PDP
Christopher Alao-Akala of the PDP
Abiola Ajimobi of the APC
Seyi Makinde of the PDP
Between 1999 and 2011, no governor in Oyo State successfully secured two consecutive terms in office. Political fragmentation, party crises, impeachment battles, and electoral shifts defined that era. Power changed hands frequently, and often not smoothly.
It was widely believed that Oyo politics resisted long-term consolidation.
Ajimobi and the First Broken Jinx
The first major disruption to that pattern came with the late Senator Abiola Ajimobi, fondly referred to as “Koseleri” by his supporters.
Elected in 2011 under the banner of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), which later merged into the All Progressives Congress, Ajimobi achieved something unprecedented in Oyo’s democratic history: he won a second term in 2015.
This was historic.
For the first time in the Fourth Republic, an Oyo governor returned to office for a second consecutive term. That alone reshaped political calculations across the state. Ajimobi demonstrated that political structure, strategic alliances, urban voter consolidation (especially in Ibadan), and party discipline could overcome Oyo’s tradition of one-term leadership.
However, while Ajimobi broke the “second-term jinx,” he did not complete the full circle of continuity. In 2019, the APC lost power in Oyo State. The transfer of power did not remain within the same party.
Thus, although Ajimobi rewrote one chapter, the larger story of seamless intra-party succession remained unfinished.
Makinde and the Era of “Omituntun”
In 2019, Engineer Seyi Makinde emerged victorious under the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), launching what he branded the “Omituntun” (New Dawn) administration.
Makinde’s first term focused heavily on infrastructure renewal, road construction, agribusiness reforms, education sector restructuring, and fiscal transparency initiatives. His government also emphasized prompt salary payments and pension settlements, which became central to his public perception.
In 2023, Makinde achieved what only Ajimobi had previously accomplished: he secured a second consecutive term in office. This firmly placed him in a rare category of political leaders in Oyo State.
Two-term governors in Oyo are no longer theoretical—they are now historical facts.
Yet, the more complex challenge lies ahead.
The Bigger Question: Can Power Transfer Within the Same Party in 2027?
The real test of political maturity in Oyo State is not merely about winning elections. It is about institutional continuity.
Can Governor Seyi Makinde:
Serve two full terms,
Maintain internal party cohesion,
Manage succession politics without implosion,
And successfully hand over power in 2027 to a candidate from the same PDP structure?
This has never happened in Oyo State’s democratic history.
Transitions have often been accompanied by:
Party defections,
Internal crises,
Political fragmentation,
Strategic realignments,
Electoral backlash.
Oyo politics has traditionally been personality-driven rather than institution-driven. Strong political figures rise, but party structures often weaken once leadership transitions approach.
That is the true jinx.
Why This Matters Beyond Oyo
A successful same-party transition in 2027 would signal more than political victory. It would demonstrate:
Maturation of party institutions in Oyo State.
Stability in governance direction.
Voter trust in continuity.
Reduced policy reversals.
Strong internal democratic mechanisms.
Nigeria’s broader democratic development depends heavily on subnational political stability. States that institutionalize smooth transitions tend to experience stronger policy consistency and long-term development planning.
If Oyo State achieves this, it could redefine political stability in the Southwest.
The Challenges Ahead
However, history suggests caution.
Succession politics in Nigeria are often more volatile than initial elections. Once a governor becomes a “lame duck” in their final term, political actors begin positioning themselves aggressively. Internal party rivalries intensify. Zoning debates emerge. Godfatherism resurfaces.
For Makinde to achieve a seamless PDP-to-PDP handover, several factors must align:
1. Strong Party Discipline – Preventing factional breakdown within the PDP.
2. Strategic Candidate Selection – Choosing a successor with broad acceptability across Ibadan, Ogbomoso, Oyo, Oke-Ogun, and Ibarapa zones.
3. Performance Legacy – Ensuring governance outcomes are visible enough to justify continuity.
4. Managing Opposition Strategy – The APC and other parties will mobilize heavily in 2027.
It is not simply about endorsement. It is about political architecture.
Is History Too Heavy to Rewrite?
Oyo State has rewritten its political narrative before.
The idea that no governor could win two terms once seemed permanent—until it was not.
First, Ajimobi broke it. Then, Makinde reinforced it.
Now, the final frontier remains: same-party succession without structural collapse.
Political observers often argue that Oyo voters are independent-minded and resistant to prolonged dominance by a single political group. Yet, voters also reward visible governance outcomes and stable leadership.
So, the weight of history is heavy—but not immovable.
The 2027 Litmus Test
As 2027 approaches, discussions about succession will intensify. Political alignments will shift. Aspirants will emerge. Negotiations will take place behind closed doors.
But at its core, the question remains straightforward:
Can Governor Seyi Makinde become the first democratically elected governor of Oyo State to complete two full terms and hand over power smoothly to a successor from his own party?
No dramatic implosion. No structural disintegration. No abrupt policy reversal.
Just continuity.
If achieved, it would mark a defining chapter in Oyo’s democratic evolution.
If not, it would reaffirm the enduring complexity of Oyo politics.
Final Thoughts: A State at a Crossroads
Oyo State stands at a political crossroads. The era of one-term leadership has ended. Two-term governance is now possible. The next phase is institutional maturity.
Whether Governor Seyi Makinde breaks this final jinx will depend not only on political strategy but on governance performance, party unity, voter confidence, and the unpredictable dynamics of Nigerian politics.
History in Oyo State has always been rewritten by those bold enough to challenge it.
The question now is not whether it can be done.
The question is:
Will 2027 be the year Oyo State finally witnesses a seamless democratic transfer of power within the same political structure?
The clock is ticking.
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