Kwankwaso at the Crossroads: Why Kano Alone Cannot Deliver Nigeria’s Presidency in 2027—and the High-Stakes Gamble for 2031
In Nigerian politics, ambition without structure is often a dead end. Power is never won by passion alone; it is secured through alliances, national spread, timing, and cold political calculation. This reality now defines the precarious situation of Engr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso—former Governor of Kano State, former Minister of Defence, and one of the most recognizable political figures in Northern Nigeria.
Kwankwaso’s political journey has been long, influential, and, at many points, admirable. His cult-like following in Kano, symbolized by the famous “Kwankwasiyya” movement, once projected him as a northern political titan with national aspirations. However, in the complex chessboard of Nigerian politics ahead of 2027, the hard truth is this: Kano is not Nigeria, and no single tree—no matter how tall—can make a forest.
Today, Kwankwaso appears boxed into one of the tightest corners of his career, largely due to delayed decisions, missed alliances, and an overestimation of the strength of a one-state-dominated political platform. To understand his dilemma, it is important to break down the facts clearly, unemotionally, and strategically.
Kwankwaso Wants to Be President, but 2027 Is Practically Closed
There is little debate that Rabiu Kwankwaso harbors presidential ambition. He has contested before and remains vocal about his relevance in national politics. However, ambition alone does not win elections in Nigeria—party structure does.
As of today, none of Nigeria’s major political parties is realistically positioned to offer Kwankwaso its presidential ticket in 2027:
The All Progressives Congress (APC) is widely expected to zone its 2027 presidential ticket to the South, following Nigeria’s long-standing informal power rotation principle.
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is also leaning strongly toward a southern candidate in 2027 to remain electorally competitive.
The African Democratic Congress (ADC), despite recent noise around coalition politics, is effectively under the political control of Atiku Abubakar. Whether one agrees or not, Atiku remains the party’s dominant force, making its presidential ticket his to lose.
In Nigeria’s electoral reality, only a major political party with nationwide spread can win the presidency. Smaller parties have historically served as pressure groups, not vehicles for actual victory.
This brings us to the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). While the NNPP recorded a surprising victory in Kano during the 2023 elections, it remains—by every measurable standard—a one-state party. Worse still, the party is bleeding. High-profile defections, including cracks between Kwankwaso and the sitting governor, have severely weakened its grip on Kano. And in politics, a leader is only as strong as the loyalty of his lieutenants.
If NNPP struggles to even retain Kano in 2027, its relevance as a national platform collapses entirely.
Kwankwaso Cannot Afford to Support a Northern Presidential Candidate in 2027
Politics is not just about winning; it is also about timing and age. Kwankwaso understands this better than most.
Supporting a northern presidential candidate in 2027 would effectively end his own ambition. Why? Because Nigeria’s zoning principle would likely mean:
8 years for a northern president (2027–2035)
Another 8 years for a southern president afterward (2035–2043)
By the time power rotates back to the North, Kwankwaso would be around 86 years old—far beyond the realistic age for launching a fresh presidential campaign in Nigeria’s brutal political terrain.
This reality alone makes it almost impossible for him to fully align with another northern heavyweight like Atiku Abubakar in 2027. Any such alliance would require him to sacrifice his own long-held ambition for good. That is a gamble he is clearly unwilling—and politically unable—to take.
2031 Is Kwankwaso’s Real Target—but 2027 Will Decide His Fate
Based on current political calculations, 2031—not 2027—is Kwankwaso’s most realistic presidential window. However, what he does in 2027 will determine whether that window remains open or slams shut permanently.
Political influence is cumulative. If Kwankwaso’s hold on Kano weakens in 2027—either through electoral defeat or mass defections—his bargaining power going into 2031 will be severely diluted. No major party hands out presidential tickets to politicians who cannot fully deliver their home base.
This is therefore the critical moment for Kwankwaso to cash in on whatever dominance he still commands in Kano and the wider North-West. Losing that leverage now would reduce him from a national aspirant to a regional footnote.
His Alliance Options Are Narrow—and All Are Costly
At this stage, Kwankwaso’s realistic alliance options are limited to three parties: PDP, APC, or Labour Party. None offers a smooth path.
(a) Returning to the PDP
The PDP, weakened and struggling for cohesion, may offer Kwankwaso room to negotiate. He could potentially reclaim control of party structures in Kano and parts of the North-West, effectively collapsing NNPP in the process.
However, the PDP’s likely zoning of the 2027 ticket to the South means one thing: Kwankwaso must shelve his presidential ambition until 2031. This option offers structure but demands patience.
(b) Joining the APC
The APC remains Nigeria’s most formidable political machine with deep national spread. Its attraction lies in its strong prospects for retaining power beyond 2027.
But Kwankwaso would enter the APC from a position of weakness. With NNPP figures already defecting to the APC in Kano—and with his strained relationship with the sitting governor—the party is no longer desperate for him. He would be welcomed, yes, but not on his own terms. The APC will not dismantle its growing Kano structure for one man.
Again, this path likely postpones any presidential ambition until 2031.
(c) The Labour Party Scenario
This is the narrowest path. It depends entirely on Peter Obi returning to Labour Party, securing the 2027 presidential ticket, and offering Kwankwaso the vice-presidential slot.
Politically, this is unrealistic. Kwankwaso neither wants nor can afford to be vice president under a southern candidate, especially if it means conceding another potential eight years of southern leadership. His core supporters would reject such a move outright.
A Defining Crossroads That Could End or Extend His Career
Rabiu Kwankwaso is standing at a decisive political crossroads. The decision he makes in the coming months will either:
Permanently retire him from serious national relevance, or
Reposition him strategically for a final presidential push in 2031.
History offers a clear lesson. Muhammadu Buhari remained a regional political force for years under the CPC until he finally forged an alliance with a major party. Without that handshake, Buhari would have remained a local champion.
Kwankwaso faces a similar reality. Without a strategic alliance with a major national party, he risks remaining confined to Kano—if even that survives the current political storm. NNPP, under its present predicament, may not endure beyond 2027.
Conclusion: Ambition Needs Allies
Politics is not built on loyalty alone; it is sustained by coalitions. Kwankwaso’s greatest challenge today is not his ambition, his popularity, or his legacy—it is his isolation.
Nigeria’s presidency cannot be won from Kano alone. A tree cannot make a forest. And without decisive action now, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso may soon discover that even the strongest local champion fades when national relevance slips away.
For Kwankwaso, the clock is ticking—not just toward 2027, but toward the final chapter of a long and consequential political career.
0 Comments