A complex and increasingly dramatic political situation is unfolding within the (APC) in Oyo State, raising serious questions about the governorship ambitions of Chief ADEBAYO Adelabu.
Contrary to earlier assumptions that Adelabu held a firm grip on the APC gubernatorial ticket ahead of the 2027 elections, emerging developments suggest otherwise. Within influential party circles, his perceived dominance appears overstated, as multiple blocs continue to consolidate power and reshape internal dynamics.
Key among these are the political structures aligned with and the legacy network of , now represented by figures such as Florence Ajimobi. These blocs are widely regarded as having deeper grassroots penetration and stronger loyalty among party stakeholders. Their influence within the party machinery appears to outweigh Adelabu’s, particularly in terms of mobilization capacity and internal negotiations.
A major talking point further complicating Adelabu’s political trajectory is his continued role as Nigeria’s Minister of Power under the administration of . Reports and political whispers suggest that Adelabu’s alleged attempt to resign from his ministerial position to focus on his gubernatorial ambition was not approved at the highest level in Aso Rock. Instead, he was reportedly urged to remain and confront the persistent challenges plaguing Nigeria’s power sector.
This development feeds into a broader narrative of underperformance in the energy sector, a critical area that has remained a major concern for Nigerians. Since his appointment, the power sector has continued to struggle with grid instability, generation shortfalls, and distribution inefficiencies—issues that have forced the presidency itself to take a more hands-on approach. Observers note that President Tinubu’s increasing direct involvement in power sector reforms subtly sidelines the minister, raising questions about confidence levels within the administration.
Within APC circles in Oyo, this perceived lack of strong backing from the presidency may be proving politically damaging. In Nigerian politics, proximity to power often translates to influence, and Adelabu’s inability to secure clear endorsement from Aso Rock is beginning to weaken his standing among party loyalists.
Critics within the party describe Adelabu as a technocrat attempting to navigate a deeply entrenched political system without fully embracing its realities. His career achievements in banking and public service are widely acknowledged, but party insiders argue that electoral politics in Oyo requires more than credentials—it demands sustained grassroots engagement, patronage networks, and loyalty-building.
Unlike seasoned politicians who maintain strong relationships with their supporters through consistent political rewards and structures, Adelabu is perceived by some as distant from the core mechanics of party politics. This perception is reinforced by claims that many individuals who worked extensively for his previous political efforts have not received tangible or lasting benefits, weakening his support base.
Instead, there are suggestions that his political strategy leaned toward informal mobilization structures that lack the institutional depth required for electoral success. In a state like Oyo, where political loyalty is often built over years of consistent engagement, such an approach may be insufficient.
Adding another layer of intrigue is the circulation of a purported list of APC candidates for the 2027 elections in Oyo State. The list, which has not been officially verified, projects as the party’s preferred governorship candidate, alongside a full slate of senatorial and House of Representatives hopefuls.
Notably absent from the list are prominent figures such as Adebayo Adelabu and . While the authenticity of the list remains in question—and the party has reportedly initiated internal investigations—its circulation reflects underlying sentiments within certain power blocs.
Political analysts emphasize that Nigeria’s electoral framework, guided by the , mandates that candidates emerge through formal party primaries, whether direct, indirect, or consensus-based. As such, any pre-determined list lacks legal standing. However, such leaks often serve as indicators of internal alignments and preferred candidates among influential stakeholders.
Within this evolving landscape, Senator Sharafadeen Alli appears to be gaining momentum. There are also widespread speculations about the role of the in influencing political outcomes, with some alleging royal backing for Alli’s candidacy.
Adding to the intrigue is the connection between Alli and , who is a central figure in Ibadan’s traditional hierarchy. Reports suggest that Alli is in line for a significant chieftaincy elevation within the Ibadan system. This has sparked debates over whether accepting such a traditional title could conflict with his political ambitions, as cultural expectations may limit active partisan engagement.
Despite these uncertainties, what remains clear is that Adelabu’s path to securing the APC ticket is becoming increasingly complicated. His perceived detachment from party structures, combined with questions about his performance as Minister of Power and his uncertain standing within the presidency, are converging to weaken his political capital.
In practical terms, politics within Oyo APC is being shaped less by individual ambition and more by entrenched alliances and collective bargaining among dominant blocs. Without strong grassroots backing or decisive support from Aso Rock, Adelabu risks being edged out of contention before the primaries even begin.
In summary, while the 2027 election cycle is still unfolding, current developments suggest that Adebayo Adelabu is steadily losing his grip on the APC structure in Oyo State. What once appeared to be a straightforward path to the governorship ticket is now a contested battlefield, where influence, loyalty, and strategic alliances may ultimately determine the outcome.
And in this high-stakes political chess game, Adelabu increasingly looks like a player running out of moves.
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