With Osun State heading to the governorship election in a matter of days, my assessment is that Governor Ademola Adeleke has between a 70% and 90% chance of securing a second term in office.
This projection is not based on the argument that he has delivered a flawless or perfect first term. However, neither would I describe his administration as a failure. Rather, his government has established the pace for what many consider an unprecedented period of infrastructure development, social intervention and people-centred governance in Osun State. While opinions may differ regarding the extent of his achievements, there is a growing public perception that he has laid a solid foundation that deserves continuity. Many residents believe that a second term would not merely reward his first-term performance but would also provide the opportunity to consolidate ongoing projects and accelerate the state's development.
One important factor often overlooked is that the challenges confronting Adeleke's administration were not entirely of his making. Much of the state's financial burden originated during the administration of former Governor Rauf Aregbesola, whose years in office were characterised by significant borrowing for infrastructure and other public projects. Those financial obligations placed enormous pressure on subsequent administrations.
According to historical debt figures published by Nigeria's Debt Management Office (DMO), Osun State's domestic and external debt stood at approximately ₦18.35 billion and US$39.06 million when Aregbesola assumed office in 2010. By the time he left office in 2018, the debt profile had increased sharply to about ₦148.37 billion and US$79.78 million, leaving the state under severe financial pressure.
Former Governor Gboyega Oyetola inherited that difficult fiscal situation and, despite efforts to stabilise the state's finances, had limited room to manoeuvre within a single four-year term. By the end of his administration, Osun's domestic debt remained around ₦148 billion, while its external debt had increased to approximately US$91 million.
Governor Adeleke also inherited these financial burdens. However, based on the Debt Management Office's debt profile released in December 2025, Osun State's domestic debt had reportedly reduced to about ₦80.28 billion, while its external debt stood at approximately US$95.30 million. Although the external debt figure increased slightly, the substantial reduction in domestic debt reflects deliberate efforts by the current administration to improve the state's financial position.
Even with these improvements, I do not envy whoever governs Osun after this election. The state's financial challenges remain considerable. Recent increases in federal allocations to states, driven largely by the fiscal and economic reforms introduced by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's administration, have provided much-needed relief. Without those reforms and improved revenue inflows, many states, including Osun, would likely have faced even greater fiscal pressure.
Governor Adeleke has often been described by critics with labels ranging from comedian to dancer. Yet politics is not determined by stereotypes. His humility, accessibility and ability to connect with ordinary people have become significant political assets that continue to resonate with many voters across the state.
Another major advantage is the power of incumbency. Across democracies worldwide, defeating a sitting governor is never an easy task. Incumbents enjoy greater visibility, established political structures and the advantages that come with holding office. Combined with the Adeleke family's enduring popularity and political influence in Osun State, these factors considerably strengthen his re-election prospects.
The governor's public endorsement of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for a second presidential term has also created an interesting political dynamic. This does not suggest that the President would interfere in the election or favour any political party. However, Tinubu's political influence and body language have historically shaped electoral outcomes across the South-West since 1999.
It is equally important to remember that Adeleke defeated the All Progressives Congress (APC) twice before becoming the incumbent governor. That electoral history reinforces the argument that he remains one of the most formidable political figures in Osun State.
Based on these realities, my personal assessment is that Governor Ademola Adeleke is well positioned to repeat that success in the forthcoming August governorship election.
For those who may dismiss this analysis by claiming it was written for financial gain, I simply leave them with a proverb often attributed to the Urhobo people: "It is better to give birth to a thief than to give birth to a fool." Like many African proverbs, it is intended to provoke thought and should be understood within its cultural context rather than interpreted literally.
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