APC’s Mathematics Department Working Overtime? Oyo, Lagos Figures Trigger Massive Reactions.
“Tinubu Is Already Fighting 2027 From the Rear View Mirror” — Questions Trail APC Primary Numbers as Osoba Raises Southern Conspiracy Alarm
Fresh political controversy is brewing within Nigeria’s political space following claims by elder statesman and former Ogun State Governor, Olusegun Osoba, that powerful Southern political forces are allegedly plotting to weaken President Bola Ahmed Tinubu ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
Osoba had warned APC members against complacency, alleging that figures such as former Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi, Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde, and former President Goodluck Jonathan could be part of a wider political calculation aimed at dividing Southern votes against Tinubu in 2027.
However, the comments have sparked mixed reactions among political observers, especially those who argue that Tinubu himself built his political legacy through opposition politics without being accused of plotting against the South during the era of former President Olusegun Obasanjo.
Many critics insist that what is currently being described as a “Southern rebellion” is nothing more than the normal democratic competition expected in a multi-party system. According to them, opposition politicians seeking power should not automatically be portrayed as enemies of the region or conspirators against Tinubu.
Political analysts also believe the narrative may be part of an early strategy to consolidate APC loyalists emotionally ahead of the 2027 elections.
The controversy deepened after the APC presidential primary results released across several South-West states generated widespread debate online due to the unusually high figures recorded for Tinubu in some states.
In Ogun State, Tinubu reportedly polled 322,485 votes across the 20 local government areas of the state.
In Oyo State, Tinubu secured 191,680 votes in the APC presidential primary. However, critics quickly pointed to previous party registration data suggesting that Oyo APC allegedly had about 153,323 registered members eligible to participate in the exercise. The discrepancy has since triggered questions about how the total votes announced exceeded the publicly discussed membership figure.
Similarly, in Osun State, Tinubu reportedly polled 100,880 votes, while his only challenger, Stanley Osifo, scored zero votes. The result was announced by former Osun State Governor and Minister, Adegboyega Oyetola.
In Ondo State, Tinubu recorded 181,966 votes, with Osifo again polling zero.
Ekiti State also delivered 89,561 votes for Tinubu during the primary exercise.
The most controversial figure, however, emerged from Lagos State — Tinubu’s political stronghold — where he reportedly polled an astonishing 8.9 million votes, while Stanley Osifo secured 16,503 votes.
The Lagos numbers have especially generated intense political conversation because the figures appear significantly higher than the total accredited APC membership previously discussed publicly within the state. Critics and opposition voices have questioned the credibility of the numbers and whether the exercise was designed more as a political show of dominance than a conventional party primary.
Observers have also noted a visible pattern in the South-West results. Tinubu’s figures appeared relatively lower in states currently controlled by opposition governors, particularly Oyo and Osun, compared to APC-controlled states and Lagos.
Oyo State, widely regarded as the second-largest voting bloc in the South-West after Lagos, produced numbers that many analysts considered surprisingly modest when compared with the huge figures announced elsewhere. Osun State also showed a similar trend.
This has led to growing speculation that the APC may already be testing political structures, voter strength, and public perception ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
Some analysts argue that the primaries may have served a deeper strategic purpose beyond merely endorsing Tinubu as the APC candidate. According to them, the large vote figures could eventually be used to create a narrative of overwhelming grassroots support and establish psychological momentum before the actual election cycle intensifies.
Others believe Tinubu’s camp is carefully studying every possible political threat ahead of 2027 while tightening control over party structures nationwide.
To supporters of the President, the exercise simply demonstrated Tinubu’s continued dominance within the APC and his enduring popularity across the South-West.
But to critics, the unusually massive figures, especially from Lagos, have only fueled suspicions that Nigeria’s political class may already be laying the groundwork for another highly controversial election season.
One thing, however, appears increasingly clear: despite being barely midway into his first tenure, President Tinubu and his political allies are already fully focused on the battle for a second term.
And as political tensions continue to rise, many Nigerians believe the road to 2027 may become one of the fiercest electoral contests the country has witnessed in recent history.
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