The latest development in the leadership crisis rocking the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has further exposed the depth of the party’s internal troubles, with Nafiu Bala emerging as a major obstacle to the political calculations of the faction led by former Senate President, David Mark.
With the judgment of the Federal High Court in Abuja now coming fully into public focus, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the David Mark-led faction to dismiss Bala's position or sidestep the legal implications of his challenge.
One of the most damaging aspects of the ruling concerns the purported resignation letter allegedly signed by Bala on May 17, 2025. The faction had relied on the document to establish that he voluntarily relinquished his position as ADC Deputy National Chairman before the emergence of the new leadership.
However, Justice Peter Lifu, in his judgment delivered on November 5, 2026, rejected the document as reliable evidence of Bala's resignation after comparing the signature on the letter with signatures on his sworn court statements.
The judge found material differences between the signatures, concluding that the disputed document had not been established as Bala's genuine act. He also emphasised that certification of a document does not automatically establish the authenticity of a disputed signature.
This development is particularly damaging because the purported resignation was central to the argument that Bala had relinquished his position and therefore could not challenge the leadership arrangement that produced David Mark as national chairman and Rauf Aregbesola as national secretary.
Beyond the disputed resignation letter, the court also nullified the emergence of the Mark-led leadership, holding that the process had not been shown to satisfy the democratic election requirements under Section 82(3) of the Electoral Act 2022.
The judgment equally affected the party's nomination of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar as its presidential candidate for the 2027 general election.
Although the Mark-led faction has rejected the ruling and indicated its intention to appeal, the immediate political consequences are enormous.
The bigger question now is: What exactly is left of the ADC's political direction ahead of 2027?
In my opinion, Nafiu Bala has effectively held the David Mark-led ADC leadership by the balls. A leadership that relied on a resignation document the court has rejected as authentic now faces a serious credibility and legitimacy crisis.
The situation leaves the ADC with three difficult political options.
1\. Make peace with the APC: The party could eventually align itself with the same All Progressives Congress (APC) that many opposition supporters believe has contributed to weakening Nigeria's political opposition. Such a move would, however, raise serious questions about the credibility of its opposition credentials.
2\. Remain politically silent: The ADC could retreat into prolonged internal battles, leaving its supporters, political associates and potential voters without a clear direction ahead of the 2027 elections. This could create an opportunity for opposition supporters to drift towards other political platforms without any coordinated political strategy.
3\. Openly support Peter Obi: The party could consider openly endorsing Peter Obi and aligning with a broader opposition movement against the APC. Such a decision could potentially give its supporters a clearer political direction and create a common front against the ruling party.
Ultimately, the unfolding events raise questions about whether Peter Obi's decision to pursue an alternative political route rather than depend entirely on the ADC's internal political arrangement was the right call.
Perhaps, with the benefit of hindsight, Obi may have made a wiser political calculation than many initially realised.
For a party that was expected to provide a credible alternative ahead of 2027, the ADC now faces the uncomfortable prospect of spending more time fighting over its leadership than preparing to challenge the ruling party.
The opposition cannot afford to be its own biggest enemy while hoping to defeat the APC.
Editorial note: The judgment was delivered on November 5, 2026, while details from the certified judgment received wider media attention on November 11, 2026. This distinction is important for accuracy.
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